RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah, mostly rain. Fortunately, the NAM at that range is very unreliable. Actually, the NAM at most ranges is unreliable but even worse a few days out. Of course, our luck it'll be right this time. The GFS is rolling now. Its a shame we didn't get a storm track like this earlier in the season when we had some cold air already in place. We are looking at rain changing to snow, questions is how much of each. Right now I am leaning 25% snow - 75% rain for most of us given current guidance. 18z GFS did look to be a tad cooler though. <weenie> We are now entering the time period the last storm started shifting South, so maybe we get a nice trend on this one too. </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah, mostly rain. Fortunately, the NAM at that range is very unreliable. Actually, the NAM at most ranges is unreliable but even worse a few days out. Of course, our luck it'll be right this time. The GFS is rolling now. Even the Euro is showing what falls, is mostly rain south of I-80. It does show some backend snow, but at best maybe a couple inches which won't stay around long with us warming back up later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Even the Euro is showing what falls, is mostly rain south of I-80. It does show some backend snow, but at best maybe a couple inches which won't stay around long with us warming back up later in the week. Yeah, I know, I was just pointing out the NAM's bad history this far from an event. Probably not a good sign though when all the models seem to be in decent agreement right now. At least with the last one, we had a bit of a split with some of the models. Canadian was pretty good with the last one and seems to be in agreement with the mostly rain scenario for this one. Would be nice to get a repeat of the southern trend, but not too confident about that when most models are on board getting mostly rain. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I just got in and was able to look at the 18z GFS. It is colder and more south east and gives us 5 inches of snow? It also looks to be showing another storm next week. I know it may be one model but could be trending???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I just got in and was able to look at the 18z GFS. It is colder and more south east and gives us 5 inches of snow? It also looks to be showing another storm next week. I know it may be one model but could be trending???? Yeah, 5 inches at PIT and 3 inches at AGC from the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Come south please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well, since we brought up the NAM earlier, I checked the 00z NAM and it also went south. I don't think I'll be up late enough to check the Euro but it'll be interesting to see if it follows suit. We'll see if the 00z GFS drifts a little more south as well. It would be nice if this one does the same thing as the last one but drops right into our wheelhouse this time. Not holding my breath on that but here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Reduced: 51% of original size [ 1029 x 725 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Reduced: 51% of original size [ 1029 x 725 ] - Click to view full image Keeps PIT at about 5 inches but raised AGC to just over 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro gives an inch or two to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS is saying everyone should see at least an inch Wednesday. That said the seasons are changing. I went outside today with no coat and it wasn't bad. 40 here already. Suppose to hit mid 50's and possibly 60 tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS is saying everyone should see at least an inch Wednesday. That said the seasons are changing. I went outside today with no coat and it wasn't bad. 40 here already. Suppose to hit mid 50's and possibly 60 tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone Considering we were fringed on every single storm this year, not surprising this one didn't materialize either. Looks like we have to wait until next year to hope to get a region wide 6+ inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well, if the 12z NAM is any indication to how the other models will trend this afternoon we are cooked. Its about 300 miles further north at 54 hours 12z vs what it showed at 60 hours at 00z. Just ridiculous we spend nearly the entirety of the winter with an anomalously cold air mass and unrelenting PV then when we need it we can't catch a break. The scenario is playing out in almost direct contrast to the last storm. That damn PV lobe kept coming in stronger and stronger, now its weaker and weaker. One thing for sure it looks like a fast temperature drop on the backside of the storm. Probably our best hope now since it seems unlikely we can get this thing to go far enough under us is to trend for it to be more amped so it will really wrap that cold air around for a faster transfer to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Considering we were fringed on every single storm this year, not surprising this one didn't materialize either. Looks like we have to wait until next year to hope to get a region wide 6+ inch storm. We shall see, I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet, although I've pulled it out of my pocket and have it in hand ready. Pattern still looks favorable for storminess going forward. Obviously we have less and less margin for error as we head into mid March and beyond but something could still pop up over the next 10 days. Probably the next "possible" threat is around St. Patty's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yes looks like we are coming into agreement on this one with rain Tuesday night through Wednesday. Looks like NAM gives us a little snow Wednesday evening when sun goes down, but most of Moisture is gone by then. Coating to an 1" mainly. I swear for bigger storms we have some kind of block. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 This looks to be an accurate map this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well, I say bring on spring now. It's almost mid March. Chances will start going down significantly of us getting anything major. We've seen crazier things happen, but the odds will become more and more against it. Knowing our luck, we'll see a storm in April that would be the perfect track for February but be too warm to give us anything major at that point. If you like large seasonal snow totals with a ton of minor events, then you loved this winter. If you're a storm guy like me, then you didn't like it so much. With all that cold air we had this winter, it's a shame we couldn't cash in on an area wide 6"+ storm just once. About 3 to 4 inches was my max for any event all winter. Anyway, I'm still not completely giving up, but like Ritual said, the towel is in hand at this point. I'd rather just see spring take over instead of get fringed with any more 1 or 2 inch snowfalls. That's just me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 This looks to be an accurate map this winter. Yeah, that looks about right. lol Like I said at the very beginning of the season, this area just has a tough time getting the major hits. We have to get an almost perfect track and have so many factors go our way. We eventually get one, but it can take years. Just in a bad area for that. We'll continue to see many more misses, fringe events, and slopstorms throughout upcoming winters like we always have, but you still hold out hope for that one storm to track perfectly for us again like the one in 2010 did. It'll happen eventually. Just have to put up with the many disappointments along the way to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Rdddd. Great map. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 John B on KDKA said he thinks we see 2-4 more than a nuisance but nothing notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro sticks with 2-4 with changeover keeping the low below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It's gorgeous out. 52 and tons of sun Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 John B on KDKA said he thinks we see 2-4 more than a nuisance but nothing notable. If he says 2-4 for whole viewing then yeah, but I'm having a hard time seeing 3-4" for Pittsburgh and south. How much moisture is left when we switch over is going to be the problem Wed night. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro sticks with 2-4 with changeover keeping the low below us. Visualization: To bad this wasn't horse shoes or hand grenades lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well today is another reason I wouldnt care if winter came to an end. It is beautiful outside, and all I want to do is golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS comes slightly south while NAM goes way north Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS comes slightly south while NAM goes way north Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Looks similar to the Euro, I'd toss the NAM for now but who knows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Let the south trend commence. Lol who are we kidding even if the models trend in our favor we will be staring at the radar to see if the mix line is crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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