jwilson Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GFS is almost worthless beyond 48 hours, but regardless, all solutions at this time frame have at least some credence. However, the storm signal showing up on [almost] all the models means we could at least have something to watch. Suppression due to the latitude of that low pressure (50/50); would actually need that low pressure system with the NAO being positive, but it can't be too far south. I see a decent Miller A signal showing up, but again, this needs time to ripen. For now just look for the storm signal until Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 When is this storm supposed to be sampled? Until that time, I am not buying any clown map, good or bad. Not this time Lucy... Ditto. Way too early to take it seriously, IMO. We've been through this too many times now. Something to keep en eye on of course, because that's what we do, but nothing more than that yet as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ensemble mean well west of the operational run so its not a total loss. Suppression city for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Good point, I think this will probably be the feature that ultimately determines if we get any meaningful snow out of this storm or not. Big reason the op euro is further SE is due to it keeping that 50/50 low in place longer. GFS is almost worthless beyond 48 hours, but regardless, all solutions at this time frame have at least some credence. However, the storm signal showing up on [almost] all the models means we could at least have something to watch. Suppression due to the latitude of that low pressure (50/50); would actually need that low pressure system with the NAO being positive, but it can't be too far south. I see a decent Miller A signal showing up, but again, this needs time to ripen. For now just look for the storm signal until Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 This is the mean solution for the Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 This thread died with the Euro but the latest models show atleast a minor advisory level snow 1-2 inches sunday. Hey better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This thread died with the Euro but the latest models show atleast a minor advisory level snow 1-2 inches sunday. Hey better than nothing I think we all know not to get sucked in when clown maps are showing more than 4 inches over our area. That being said I won't dismiss this storm until after it is fully sampled by Thursdays 0Z suite. Hopefully it snows during the Steelers game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is for next thursday. Lol it is pretty funny once it pulls away it throws almost a foot to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is for next thursday. Lol it is pretty funny once it pulls away it throws almost a foot to us That's one hell of a low pressure it is showing. Too bad it is 9 days away and will probably change drastically with the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 New meaning of dreaming of a white Christmas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm not sure anyone here was ever really all aboard for this storm, which is good given the lead time. Add to that we appear to be heading towards a pattern change (for the better) and models are probably going to be less reliable than normal. I'd be happy with 1-2 inches but I'm skeptical we can even manage that. This thread died with the Euro but the latest models show atleast a minor advisory level snow 1-2 inches sunday. Hey better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yesterday I liked the trend. Tonight I no like da trend. I have a feeling the storms won't be coming until January. Maybe this will be our year for a couple big ones. I'd rather have that then nickle and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 As of right now it looks like a quiet pattern however for those that want snow for Christmas it looks like cold front comes through next Wed and gives us a chance of snow on Christmas eve or Christmas day. A ways off but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm not sure anyone here was ever really all aboard for this storm, which is good given the lead time. Add to that we appear to be heading towards a pattern change (for the better) and models are probably going to be less reliable than normal. I'd be happy with 1-2 inches but I'm skeptical we can even manage that. Looks warmer and zero snow now, don't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks warmer and zero snow now, don't it? C-1. Im more intrigued by the storm on xmas eve. Even if we dont see snow. 960 low is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm not sure anyone here was ever really all aboard for this storm, which is good given the lead time. Add to that we appear to be heading towards a pattern change (for the better) and models are probably going to be less reliable than normal. I'd be happy with 1-2 inches but I'm skeptical we can even manage that. Looks warmer and zero snow now, don't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wow so our only chance at a white christmas is a sub 970 low that will most likely be a GLC. Well, on to January I guess. Ehhh....a LONG way to go with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 At least one thing for sure is the cold moving in Christmas Day. Temps fall to teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/christmas-travel-snowstorm-wind/39163954 "Pittsburgh you're on the edge"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/christmas-travel-snowstorm-wind/39163954 "Pittsburgh you're on the edge"... I think that is ridiculous to make a map like this 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks warmer and zero snow now, don't it? Yeah, Once it started to fall apart and the Euro trended towards the other models I figured it was a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the "bomb" scenario actually plays out somewhere on the 24th and 25th we should be able to at least squeeze out some snow showers and cold temperatures for some portion of Christmas Day. Wouldn't be surprised to see this completely wash out too as we get closer though. At this point I just hope something big happens somewhere to re-shuffle the pattern because December thus far has been lousy. I don't think I've had more than a half inch of snow on the ground at one time yet this month. Even if January and February are rockin (barring a big storm of some sort between Christmas and New Years) it might be hard to hit our average snow for the year. At least one thing for sure is the cold moving in Christmas Day. Temps fall to teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think that is ridiculous to make a map like this 7 days out. lol, that looks like they just drew a graphic off of yesterdays 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I decided to research to see how likely it would be to get a substantial snow storm on Dec 24th or 25th based on history. I went back to 1970. Since 1970, we have had only 4 days with at least an inch of snow on the 24th with max of 2.2 inches in 1993. On the 25th we have had only 4 days of at least and inch with max of 1.9 inches in 1993. The all time record for Dec 25th is 3.5 inches in 1935. We have only had 6 times with a snow depth on the ground of 2 inches or more. Max depth 6 inches since 1970. To see it written down it is pretty sad. So we pretty much would need some sort of Christmas miracle to receive anything above 4 inches out of this storm. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pbz Christmas Snow in Pgh since 1970 Most Snow on 12/25 3.5 in - 1935 Max depth 7 in - 1963 Dec 24th – 25th 2013 24th 1.0 25th .6 in depth T 2012 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 2011 24th T 25th T depth 0 2010 24th T 25th .7 depth 2 in 2009 24th 0 25th T depth 1 2008 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 2007 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 2006 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 2005 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 2004 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 2003 24th .4 25th .5 depth 0 2002 24th T 25th 1.8 depth 1 2001 24th T 25th .8 depth T 2000 24th T 25th T depth 1 1999 24th .2 25th 0 depth 0 1998 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1997 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1996 24th T 25th T depth 0 1995 24th .9 25th 1.4 depth 6 1994 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1993 24th 2.2 25th 1.9 depth 4 1992 24th 1.5 25th T depth 1 1991 24th T 25th 0 depth 0 1990 24th .4 25th 0 depth T 1989 24th 0 25th .3 depth 4 1988 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1987 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1986 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1985 24th .5 25th .3 depth 3 1984 24th 0 25th T depth 0 1983 24th .2 25th .1 depth 1 1982 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1981 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1980 24th 2.2 25th T depth 2 1979 24th 0 25th T depth 0 1978 24th .1 25th .7 depth T 1977 24th 0 25th .1 depth 0 1976 24th T 25th .5 depth 1 1975 24th .1 25th .6 depth T 1974 24th 0 25th .1 depth 0 1973 24th 0 25th 0 depth T 1972 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1971 24th 0 25th 0 depth 0 1970 24th T 25th 1.4 depth 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If honestly be happy with a few traces here and there and at least have an inch on the ground Christmas morning.....not green brown grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think that is ridiculous to make a map like this 7 days out. That's what accuweather does. Ridiculous maps a week away. I'm pretty sure I will know what happens with this next storm based off of history in this area, especially us guys south of Pittsburgh. We'll get a bunch of rain and/or slop, cold front moves through followed by a very brief period of snow that maybe gives us a dusting or coating as the low races off. Very cold air rushes in right after that. There, I just saved us all from wasting our time looking at models for the next 6 days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If honestly be happy with a few traces here and there and at least have an inch on the ground Christmas morning.....not green brown grass Yeah, we've seen next to nothing in Bethel so far. I've seen a coating on the grass a couple of times and that's about it. Very slow start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Getting a nice little snow shower right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Idk if any of you check this every morning but I just drove to work and there were some slick spots. Be careful driving, I was lucky I wasn't going fast when I hit a pretty nasty patch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Idk if any of you check this every morning but I just drove to work and there were some slick spots. Be careful driving, I was lucky I wasn't going fast when I hit a pretty nasty patch of ice. My driveway and side street is a sheet of ice. They just salted the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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