Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 To close to call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yep. The trend continues. Always in the bullseye 3 or 4 days out only to move on us. Looks like Eastern Ohio will be the place to be. I see more mix and rain changing to snow on Monday. We could use an eastern trend now but likely to not happen. Lol, never going to happen. When we need a storm to be further north, rarely happens. When we need it south, it goes north. Fringed or slop is the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Wobble. Wobble wobble. Models will keep doing it.it isn't a wobble when all the models are trending warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 They're all getting warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Still waiting on Euro ensembles - should be out by 4 p.m. - but the warm trend is not surprising given the synoptic pattern. Lows to the NW rarely result in all-snow at PIT. In order for those scenarios to work, PIT needs to be really cold at the beginning of the event, let's say 850 hPa temps of -10C or even -15C, or really strong upward vertical motion. Instead 850 hPa temps are perhaps -2C to -3C at the beginning of this event around 6z Mon, and then southwesterly flow kicks in and warms up the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Guess Ill be satisfied if we get an inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Euro is NW. Enjoy your slop everyone I am going to step away for a bit. Can't get mad this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Guys, if you can, and when it's not snowing, there's a decent snowpack near Erie...2 h drive may be worth it to get a snow fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Still waiting on Euro ensembles - should be out by 4 p.m. - but the warm trend is not surprising given the synoptic pattern. Lows to the NW rarely result in all-snow at PIT. In order for those scenarios to work, PIT needs to be really cold at the beginning of the event, let's say 850 hPa temps of -10C or even -15C, or really strong upward vertical motion. Instead 850 hPa temps are perhaps -2C to -3C at the beginning of this event around 6z Mon, and then southwesterly flow kicks in and warms up the lower levels. Thanks for the input Thunderhead. Great to have you back posting in our forum as you know we do not get much help from mets in our region. What was once looking like a 3-5 inch snow is now looking more like rain changing to snow and 1-3 inch totals. Still time to change either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 KPIT how many accounts do you have this year. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 KPIT how many accounts do you have this year. Lol. One. How about you rants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Dude I don't antagonize the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I haven't looked at the models yet today. Has it trended back to a little bit of a colder solution? I noticed that the NWS is going with straight snow again for Sunday night and Monday. They had a mix earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 According to some people the warmer solution was set in stone,like I said earlier wobble wobble. And life goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 According to some people the warmer solution was set in stone,like I said earlier wobble wobble. And life goes on. Nothing is ever set in stone, but that was the trend. Usually, once we start getting the warmer trend, even in the middle of winter, we are screwed. It doesn't go back to cold too often here. Maybe we'll get lucky this time. And yes, life goes on no matter what. Can't control nature or models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The NWS is in the GFS camp according to their latest discussion, since its been the most consistent with the placement of the surface low. It doesn't look like much more than a sloppy inch Pittsburgh and points south, with the changeover to rain sometime early Monday. But I'm more concerned with the brutal cold coming afterwards, Highs in the low 20s, brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 According to some people the warmer solution was set in stone,like I said earlier wobble wobble. And life goes on. You said that cold wasn't going to be an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The cold not going to be problem. To much cold can push it south and east ..... It's never easy for us here.We always seem to have to thread the needle .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yah Winter is back everyone is fighting! Enjoy! As long as next weekend is nice. Got family traveling for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 kpit saying a slushy inch or so for the metro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 So far the GFS, NAM, and Euro have stayed rather consistent the past day or so, with the NAM slightly warmer than the GFS, and the Euro alot warmer. The GFS does give us some decent precip post frontal, so we'll see. This storm is similiar to the pre thanksgiving storm last year, in that there is more of an enlongated trough of low pressure, rather than one strong central low. IIRC the NAM did a good job on last years storm. P.S. :There was some very light snow earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yah Winter is back everyone is fighting! ImageUploadedByTapatalk1416141403.043359.jpg Enjoy! As long as next weekend is nice. Got family traveling for the holidays. No, no, no. Either you're all in for cold and snow, or you're not. You don't get to pick and choose. (BTW, if anybody from NWS Pit is reading, it's "lesser" amounts. "Lessor" is: noun 1. a person, group, etc., who grants a lease. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yuck, what a mess (the bickering in this thread and the evoluton of this storm lol). I'm glad I didn't put much time into tracking this one, the typical warm tongue is evident on all the snow maps. I figured when I didn't get any text messages from NWS about advisories things had taken a turn for the worse lol. That WPXI snow map looks pretty good to me, though I'd probably go with less than an inch for the areas shaded with 1 inch. We all know that change over to rain will happen quicker than modeled. After that looks like a deep freeze for a few days then some moderation going into next week. After that hopefully we get a reload in a more climo favored part of the season. Snow storms in Novemeber are like preason games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Thanks for the input Thunderhead. Great to have you back posting in our forum as you know we do not get much help from mets in our region. What was once looking like a 3-5 inch snow is now looking more like rain changing to snow and 1-3 inch totals. Still time to change either way. You're welcome. I've been a winter weather weenie for many years and I don't plan on changing that, ha. 0z EC and 6z GFS agree on 850 hPa 0C line placement -- it's up to about the Allegheny/Butler Co. line at 12z Mon. As of now, models have warm layer confined to about 800 hPa and below, in contrast to other events w/ a warm nose between 700 and 850 hPa. Would not be surprised if more of a warm nose showed up in that 700-850 hPa layer. Highest snowfall totals probably end up around Lawrence, northern Butler, Mercer, Venango Counties. Between this corridor and Allegheny Co., might have a transition zone with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice input ,thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not surprising to see a mid-November storm to have temp issues. No reason to freak out for the winter, though. Measurable snow at this time of year is generally rare. I'd be curious what the average date is for a first snowfall >1". Those of us in the southern areas were a bit spoiled last winter; I don't at all expect a repeat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not surprising to see a mid-November storm to have temp issues. No reason to freak out for the winter, though. Measurable snow at this time of year is generally rare. I'd be curious what the average date is for a first snowfall >1". Those of us in the southern areas were a bit spoiled last winter; I don't at all expect a repeat this year. Although November big snows are rare they do happen. Would love to have a repeat of this. http://www.post-gazette.com/local/south/2013/11/27/Thanksgiving-storm-of-1950-stopped-Pittsburgh-cold/stories/201311270042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I see we are back to the warmer solution today. Not sure why the NWS changed it to all snow for a brief time in their forecast. I haven't seen anything to suggest that it'll be all snow. Like I said before, usually once it takes the warmer trend for us we get slop. North and west of Pittsburgh will see some accumulation. Pittsburgh and south will probably see very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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