Pittsburgh/ Western PA Part III

[tsteel]

and for the record.. verzsyla said storms would only be in the i-80 corridor area on the 10PM news.. woops.

[psunate1977]

and for the record.. verzsyla said storms would only be in the i-80 corridor area on the 10PM news.. woops.

He did get his twitter account on there tho

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tsteel]

Got over 1.00" in the gauge between the two rounds of storms last night. Second round had so much close lightning ..

[meatwad]

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0743 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN   VLYS NNE INTO THE UPR OH VLY AND ERN GRT LKS...   ...SUMMARY...   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER   MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO   TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...A FEW   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF TENNESSEE   AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...AND WESTERN   PENNSYLVANIA.   ...SYNOPSIS...   AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS   THROUGH THU. CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT EWD PROGRESS   THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS REINFORCED BY NRN STREAM IMPULSE   NOW ENTERING NRN MN...AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER N TX   ACCELERATES NNE INTO IL.   AT THE SFC...APPROACH OF TX IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE INDUCING WEAK   CYCLOGENESIS ATTM ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER CNTRL MS. THE LOW SHOULD   DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND   TNGT...REACHING NW OH BY 12Z THU. ELSEWHERE...WEAK BACK-DOOR   BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM CNTRL VA/WRN MD NWD INTO W CNTRL   PA/WRN NY.       ...LWR MS/TN VLYS NNE INTO OH VLY/ERN GRT LKS TODAY/TNGT...   SFC HEATING AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT/LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM   FROM TX UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE   OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS TODAY. STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM   BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...TERRAIN   CIRCULATIONS...AND UPLIFT ALONG BACK-DOOR FRONT NEWD INTO THE UPR OH   VLY/LWR GRT LKS.   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN   MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR PATTERN. BUT WITH FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE IN   PLACE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE   SOUTH/...SUSTAINED CONFLUENT FLOW ULTIMATELY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS.        ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC   WAVE...AND NEAR BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY FARTHER N...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT   TO YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO   SMALL-SCALE BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT. BUT   CONTINUED DEEPENING OF SFC WAVE AND STRENGTHENING OF WIND PROFILES   /WITH 700 MB SSW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS/ SUGGEST THAT SOME   RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO   TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KY NNEWD INTO OH AND PERHAPS FAR SE IND.    ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENCE WELL AHEAD OF EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND   COMPARATIVELY STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES /GREATER SFC HEATING/ MAY   SUPPORT SCTD...MAINLY PULSE SVR STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG   WIND AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF GA...AND OVER WV/VA.   ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/14/2014   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1438Z (10:38AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME        

[Mailman]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0058
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1210 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA, WV, AND WESTERN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 141609Z - 142009Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS WV, WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME TODAY ACROSS NEIGHBORING PORTIONS
OF THE APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
WV ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS VA
AND WV. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE SPC WRF, ARW, AND NMM APPEAR TO BE
CAPTURING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THE BEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE MODEST -- AROUND 1.25" -- WHICH IS NORMALLY AT THE
LOWER FRINGE OF FLASH FLOOD EVENTS.

CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2000 J/KG WHILE 0-3 KM SHEAR
REACHES 25+ KTS, ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WET MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION.
SLIGHT NORTHWARD PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE AREA, PARTIALLY CAUSED BY
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION, COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES IN A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY CAPTURING
THIS ACTIVITY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5" ARE EXPECTED.
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" SHOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA.

ROTH

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN PA/ERN WV/NWRN VA AND THE WRN MD
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141748Z - 141945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK. WW NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED/ISOLATED NATURE OF RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...NEAR AND W OF THE
DAMMING/WEDGE FRONT BACKED UP TO THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
IN THIS AREA...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONGOING
DIURNAL HEATING HAS YIELDED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/...FUELING THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE FAR ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT...THUS LIKELY LIMITING OVERALL STORM INTENSITY/SEVERITY. THAT
BEING SAID...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS -- WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS THE MAIN RISK. WITH THE THREAT LIKELY TO
REMAIN LOW-END AND ISOLATED...WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...THOUGH RISK
COULD INCREASE FROM THE W INTO PARTS OF THIS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OVERALL EWD PROGRESS OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / WRN PA / WV

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

VALID 142150Z - 142315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
NY...WRN PA AND WV. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER WRN KY
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO NW PA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND MLCAPE
IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS
THE ERN PART OF WW 155. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE NERN
PART OF THE WATCH WITH OTHER NEW CELLS INITIATING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVING NNEWD. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE PITTSBURG PA WSR-88D
VWP...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WRN PA AND WRN NY DUE TO A DAMMING COLD
FRONTAL AIRMASS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN CREST.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/14/2014

[meatwad]

EL6   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   705 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK     WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA     NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA     LAKE ERIE     LAKE ONTARIO   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM     UNTIL 100 AM EDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST   SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST   OF BUFFALO NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.   &&   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 153...WW 154...WW 155...   DISCUSSION...SPORADIC SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD TO NNEWD   ACROSS WW AREA IN NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE WARM-SECTOR/BOUNDARY   LAYER AIR...LOCATED W OF FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER WRN PA.  MAIN   CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...AMIDST 30-40 KT   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND 500-1000 J/KG INITIAL MLCAPE...LATTER   DECREASING GRADUALLY WITH TIME THIS EVENING.   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM   MOTION VECTOR 23035.   ...EDWARDS

[Mailman]

Not even a drop of rain here today.  That won't be the case tomorrow, however.

[CoraopolisWx]

There's a decent post frontal moisture flow, with the steering almost due north.

 

This set-up would have been nice 2 or 3 months ago. 

Lol.

[colonel717]

There's a decent post frontal moisture flow, with the steering almost due north.

 

This set-up would have been nice 2 or 3 months ago. 

Lol.

2-3 mos ago....what about today....Received a picture from a friend in Chicago suburbs with snow on the ground this am.

[meatwad]

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

235 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-

020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-180245-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0001.140518T0800Z-140518T1200Z/

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-

JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-

VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-

ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-

WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-

MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...NEW PHILADELPHIA...

CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...

ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...

WOODSFIELD...GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...

BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...

KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...

LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...

WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...

FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...PARSONS

235 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FROST

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. COVER SENSITIVE

PLANTS.

&&

$$

15

[meatwad]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC003-125-280100-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0033.140528T0009Z-140528T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

809 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 804 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR IMPERIAL...MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...TREE DAMAGE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

IMPERIAL... MCDONALD... OAKDALE...

CARNEGIE... BRIDGEVILLE... UPPER SAINT CLAIR...

MOUNT LEBANON... BETHEL PARK... MCMURRAY...

BRENTWOOD... BALDWIN... MCKEESPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO

THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 7979 4010 8001 4042 8034 4051 8018

TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 308DEG 30KT 4042 8017

[meatwad]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC003-129-280100-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0034.140528T0019Z-140528T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

819 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

WESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 817 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM PENN HILLS TO MOUNT WASHINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...TREE DAMAGE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH... FOX CHAPEL...

NORTH SIDE PITTSBURGH... MILLVALE...

ETNA... NEW KENSINGTON... MOUNT WASHINGTON...

EAST LIBERTY... SPRINGDALE... PENN HILLS...

OAKLAND... SOUTH SIDE PITTSBURGH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO

THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 7936 4019 7956 4046 8006 4059 7981

TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 308DEG 26KT 4052 7982 4043 8001

$$

15

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...NRN WV...NRN AND CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281828Z - 282100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM CNTRL OH SEWD INTO NRN VA.
STRONG HEATING WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK AND THEREFORE AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
MARGINAL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS ALWAYS POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014

[meatwad]

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL   ACUS48 KWNS 010900   SPC AC 010900   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0400 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6-7 WITH A   SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE   PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MEANDERING E-W FRONT WILL   BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA INTO THE OH VALLEY AND   MID ATLANTIC DAY 4 AND SHIFT SWD DAY 5-6.   WED /DAY 4/...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH   THE OH VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH AN E-W FRONT. A MOIST...UNSTABLE   WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND BELT OF STRONGER   MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD   THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN   ADDITION TO POSSIBLE ONGOING MCS TO CONTINUE. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM   35-40 KT AND A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOTH   SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MCS EVENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND THE   POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.   BEYOND DAY 4...PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH FRONT SHIFTING A   LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM KS EWD INTO THE MID   ATLANTIC DAY 5 BUT REMAINING WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW   ALOFT WHERE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOCATION OF OUTFLOW   BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE COVERAGE OF STORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL   REMAIN LIKELY FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC   DAYS 5-6. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE   CORRIDORS OF HIGHER COVERAGE EVENTS WILL OCCUR GIVEN INFLUENCE OF   ONGOING CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF   INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.   ..DIAL.. 06/01/2014

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...WRN PA...SWRN NY...NRN WV...NRN
KY...SERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031610Z - 031845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A
WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
PRE-FRONTAL CU BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VICINITY NWD TO LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED
FROM N OF TERRE HAUTE AND INDIANAPOLIS TO THE W SIDE OF CLEVELAND
AND NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO. LIGHTNING HAS ALREADY BEEN DETECTED
ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF CLEVELAND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO CONTINUED
DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A WEAKLY CAPPED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK
ASCENT ALONG AND PRECEDING THE FRONT BENEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...MLCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1500 J/KG ARE ALREADY NOTED PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z
WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB THAT FEATURES STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...AND
SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MLCAPE IS ANTICIPATED. THIS BUOYANCY
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION PROVIDED BY 25-40 KT OF FLOW SAMPLED BETWEEN
2.5 AND 4 KM AGL PER AREA VWPS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL...WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF SUCH
RISK BOUNDED BY THE WRN FRINGES OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA AND S-CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032034Z - 032230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NWRN INTO
N-CNTRL PA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO ADJACENT
S-CNTRL NY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG BOLSTERED BY MIDDLE-60S SFC DEWPOINTS. AS
SUCH...STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND
GUSTS CONTINUING -- AIDED BY 20-25 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM AGL
SAMPLED BY THE CCX VWP. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW --
AS EVIDENCED BY QLCS FORWARD MOTION ONLY REACHING 35-40 KT -- A
GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014

[north pgh]

A line of storms just fired up South of me. Started with a little lightning and thunder but now continuous lighting. South hills must be getting crushed.

[tsteel]

hmm This is an interesting forecast for tonight.. Models are all over the place. Looks like the heaviest rain is going to be south of Pittsburgh though. 

[oldlogin]

Sorry to barge in on your forum but thought you all might have an interest in this

 

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...WRN MD...NRN WV...ERN OH

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 081537Z - 081630Z

SUMMARY...CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS PLANNED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE UPCOMING
1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY ONE TO TWO TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WARRANTING CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. THE
FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL PROVIDE FURTHER
METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS REGARDING THIS RISK.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014

 

[Mailman]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD
ACROSS OH ATTM AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN OH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA AND PROMOTE NEW CONVECTIVE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT AS MOISTURE INCREASES NWD. ALTHOUGH
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ATTM WHICH ARE LIMITING
EXTENSIVE DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...SOME BREAKS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MARGINAL
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081720Z - 081945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1007-MB LOW BETWEEN
COLUMBUS AND MANSFIELD OHIO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NY AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW
OF THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT -- E.G. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY OWING TO A FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW -- REF. 12Z BNA RAOB DEPICTING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 7 C/KM -- AND A FEED OF INSOLATION-STEEPENED
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM WV INTO SWRN PA.

SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND
A LEADING BAND OF WAA-RELATED CONVECTION IN WRN PA...AIDED BY SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST MID/UPPER-LEVEL
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WHILE ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE ILN/PBZ VWPS
SUGGESTS DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS. DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE WHERE SFC
WINDS ARE MORE BACKED -- I.E. E OF A CONFLUENCE AXIS DRAWN N/S OVER
WRN PA AND INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME SVR RISK
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR W AS CENTRAL OHIO...THE GREATEST SVR RISK
AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FAR ERN
OHIO EWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO
EXIST.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014

[meatwad]

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0351 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...NRN WV...FAR WRN   MD...FAR ERN OH   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 082051Z - 082245Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE   AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF SFC HEATING IS STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE   RATES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING EWD ACROSS OHIO. MLCAPE ON   THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG EXISTS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ENHANCED BY   RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S -- AND BOUNDED TO THE E BY RAIN-COOLED/CLOUDY AIR.   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES -- PER WATER VAPOR   IMAGERY -- WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS   THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE   ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PBZ VWP SAMPLES   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER WITH 25-30-KT   MID-LEVEL WSWLYS. THESE FACTORS WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY   TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY BOWING...AND PERHAPS   ONE OR TWO TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND   POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...AND A   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOW LCLS AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL   SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER   BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS LIMITED.   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...   LAT...LON   40128090 41697965 41737866 41097837 39277913 38968050               39358107 40128090 

[meatwad]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

553 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

PAZ021-022-073-082230-

ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-WESTMORELAND PA-

553 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY...

NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARMSTRONG COUNTIES...

AT 549 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST

LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS

STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL SMALL

STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SOUTH SIDE PITTSBURGH...

DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH... OAKLAND...

NORTH SIDE PITTSBURGH... MILLVALE...

ETNA... EAST LIBERTY... WILKINSBURG...

FOX CHAPEL... TURTLE CREEK... PENN HILLS...

MONROEVILLE...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH

FACEBOOK PAGE OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4068 7954 4047 7945 4037 7999 4052 8003

$$

FRIES

[meatwad]

SPC AC 101741   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN   THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY   THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...   CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK GRAPHIC IN EASTERN STATES   ...SUMMARY...   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE   PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.   FARTHER EAST...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER A PART   OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS   DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.   ...SYNOPSIS...   CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD   THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY AREAS. MEANWHILE...BELT OF STRONGER   WLYS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. A   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME AND CURRENTLY MOVING   INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS   VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY. A WEAKER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE   OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC AN   OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT   LAKES. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE   GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE   SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A COLD   FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE   NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY   EVENING. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS WRN TX.   ...SOUTHERN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND A SMALL PART OF THE NRN PLAINS   AND UPPER MS VALLEY...   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...MEANWHILE RICHER   MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH   DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND AS INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW   CIRCULATION DECREASES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE MODEST ACROSS   THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. THESE   PROCESS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY TO   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TX DRYLINE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FARTHER   NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS   TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX DRYLINE AS WELL AS ALONG SWD ADVANCING COLD   FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE   HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE. MUCH   OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND   AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS   OVERNIGHT AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED   BY AN INTENSIFYING LLJ.   ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...   STRONGER DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS   UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CONTINUES EWD. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH   DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR...BUT WIDESPREAD   CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. A   FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING...BUT BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR   SOME DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP   DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS IN   WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. ISOLATED DAMAGING   WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER   THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.   MULTICELL STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN   THREATS.   ..DIAL.. 06/10/2014   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1905Z (3:05PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Mailman]

Slight risk today.  Also.... 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN VA/FAR EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF
WV/EASTERN OH TO SOUTHWEST PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111625Z - 111830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN
VA/EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF WV TO EASTERN OH/SOUTHWEST PA. THE REGION
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST...WHILE A RIBBON OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERLIES MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND
UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT MIDDAY...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP PER 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AND SOME
LOWER 80S. IN THE PRESENCE OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND/JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ARE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR WESTERN VA/FAR EASTERN KY INTO WV/EASTERN
OH AND WESTERN PA. THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF MODERATELY
STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OF
MD/NORTHERN VA/DC/WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111732Z - 111930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OF
MD/NORTHERN VA/WV PANHANDLE AND THE DC METRO VICINITY. A WATCH IS
LIKELY BY AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...A
ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COINCIDES WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN PA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTERN MD. THE AIR MASS ALONG /AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF/ THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OCCUR /MIDDLE AND SOME UPPER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND ADJACENT MD/WV...BUT AT LEAST 1000
J/KG MLCAPE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. BENEATH A BELT
OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GENERAL
PREVALENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MAXIMIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR AND/OR CROSSING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WILL LIKELY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH CORRESPONDING
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014

[Mailman]

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 280
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

MDC023-PAC003-005-007-019-051-059-063-125-129-WVC009-049-051-061-
069-077-093-103-120100-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.A.0280.140611T1900Z-140612T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 280 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN WESTERN MARYLAND

GARRETT

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

ALLEGHENY BEAVER FAYETTE
GREENE WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND

IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

ARMSTRONG BUTLER INDIANA

IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA

BROOKE MARSHALL OHIO

IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

MARION MONONGALIA PRESTON
TUCKER WETZEL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BEAVER...BETHANY...BUTLER...
FAIRMONT...GREENSBURG...INDIANA...KINGWOOD...KITTANNING...
LATROBE...MORGANTOWN...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...
OAKLAND MD...PARSONS...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...UNIONTOWN...
WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG AND WHEELING.

[meatwad]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC003-007-125-112215-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0049.140611T2137Z-140611T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

537 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WESTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 536 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BURGETTSTOWN...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...TREE DAMAGE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BURGETTSTOWN... IMPERIAL... MOON...

SEWICKLEY... ECONOMY BORO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING

FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST

VIRGINIA.

THIS STORM ALSO IS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY

FLOOD QUICKLY.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO

THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 8034 4056 8003 4032 8034 4036 8044

TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 203DEG 26KT 4041 8035

$$

KRAMAR/88