Rdd9108 Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Guess I am the only weenie left here but the Euro control showed a 897 mb low yesterday. The signal is that something big is brewing out there and its gonna get cold March 22-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Guess I am the only weenie left here but the Euro control showed a 897 mb low yesterday. The signal is that something big is brewing out there and its gonna get cold March 22-28. I had to take a break, to much time spent tracking DC snowstorms this month lol Right now this possible threat looks to be more of coastal thing. Its far out, but I doubt things break right for it to hit us. Then again, when we have a modeled hit it usually misses so maybe its good we aren't in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'm wishing in one hand ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 From what I can gather the idea of a rather large storm early next week is still on the table. Per HM in the Mid Atl thread,its a triple phase on the Euro although it doesn't happen until its north of here. Also, its so far east right now we might not even get cloud cover from it lol. I am betting if it phases sooner a further west track is likely a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 From what I can gather the idea of a rather large storm early next week is still on the table. Per HM in the Mid Atl thread,its a triple phase on the Euro although it doesn't happen until its north of here. Also, its so far east right now we might not even get cloud cover from it lol. I am betting if it phases sooner a further west track is likely a given. honestly it could show a solution for 20 runs but until this is sampled nothing is set in stone. Imagine if this thing phased earlier and we got buried. It would make up for all the fringe jobs we had to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 honestly it could show a solution for 20 runs but until this is sampled nothing is set in stone. Imagine if this thing phased earlier and we got buried. It would make up for all the fringe jobs we had to experience. Thats what we need. My comments were just a general summary of all the models. They all show a storm of some degree but they are also all to far east. Heck, even the 18z GEFS don't show a single member that slams us. At 6-7 days out though pretty much everything is subject to change, so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thats what we need. My comments were just a general summary of all the models. They all show a storm of some degree but they are also all to far east. Heck, even the 18z GEFS don't show a single member that slams us. At 6-7 days out though pretty much everything is subject to change, so stay tuned. If we can just get one of these northern vorts to go negative a little further south, we at least have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Boy EURO really has backed off on the cold for next week. It showed high temps in teens-low 20's, now has us mid 30's. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here is an interesting stat. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well I dont think this can come far enough west to affect us but I could be completely wrong. This looks to be an I95 storm. I dont think this is gonna phase or go negative fast enough. Although I will not write us off until this gets sampled because we have seen storms go in whole different direction once its been sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well I dont think this can come far enough west to affect us but I could be completely wrong. This looks to be an I95 storm. I dont think this is gonna phase or go negative fast enough. Although I will not write us off until this gets sampled because we have seen storms go in whole different direction once its been sampled. Yeah, maybe it's my subconscious just trying to protect me from another failure, but I tend to agree here. The 500mb pattern doesn't favor an inland runner. When you get these big bombs though you never know. Hopefully we see a huge shift West on Saturday's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah, maybe it's my subconscious just trying to protect me from another failure, but I tend to agree here. The 500mb pattern doesn't favor an inland runner. When you get these big bombs though you never know. Hopefully we see a huge shift West on Saturday's 12z runs. thats what I am holding out hope for, but like you said the 500 mb looks too progressive. Honestly if we get a track like the last coastal with a 970-980mb we could see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnswahoo Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I was thinking about this winter and how many of the storms for the Pittsburgh area, (not southern Allegheny or Westmoreland Counties) have been a major miss and I started thinking about how the cold air has pushed further south and not really east as it has in the past. When we have been hit with a nice snow storm 8 or more the temps have been 30 to 34 degrees but this winter when I have seen storms develop out temps have not been in this range, 25 to 29 have been the norm and it got me thinking that when cold air has pushed out of the north we really needed to see the freeze line to be no further south than say Morgantown or Fairmont. What has happened is the front pushes south and the freeze line has been well below that area and almost to the North Carolina border which in my estimation has been unprecedented. Thus, Virginia, especially the Western Part of DC into Fairfax and Manassas have all seen significant storms. Now, that being said, I am having a difficult time trying to determine how the Spring will play out. What I can't determine is if we are going to see cold air and warm air clash in the same areas that have seen the big storms or will that contrast line move north into our region and give us considerable soakings and colder temps to go along with more moister. Anybody have an idea on this. My gut tells me that we will have a rainy but very cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There was a post in another thread with 25 of the 50 Euro ens and I counted about 6 that would give us a moderate to heavy hit. Still feeling it will be tough to real this further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There was a post in another thread with 25 of the 50 Euro ens and I counted about 6 that would give us a moderate to heavy hit. Still feeling it will be tough to real this further west. This pattern looks the same as was when we had the bitter cold and the storms moving south since late January. It is hard to believe that we can't get that moisture to drive up North even in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Nice snow squall coming down now!....what a surprise....light driveway coating will be gone within a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Drove into it, Visibility dropped for a few miles, but nothing was sticking on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Moderate Snow falling here, ground starting to whiten up. Winter just won't give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Moderate Snow falling here, ground starting to whiten up. Winter just won't give up! honestly at this point. I could see us getting snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This could be our biggest storm of the year... Nice surprise snow. Looking like close to an inch here in Robinson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 mod snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Had a nice snow shower this morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Picked up about 3/4 of an inch 2 hours ago but it is just about melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 honestly at this point. I could see us getting snow in April. Whats so rare about Snow in April, we always get snow in April. We average 1.5" for the month, but a few years ago we had over 6" in April. Def not rare at all. May is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Had 22 deer in my yard this evening. Generally see 5-7. Rare to see so many together last time I saw that many together in my yard was right before a big storm.... is something brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Had 22 deer in my yard this evening. Generally see 5-7. Rare to see so many together last time I saw that many together in my yard was right before a big storm.... is something brewing At this point I'll go with it. lol At least we're still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Had 22 deer in my yard this evening. Generally see 5-7. Rare to see so many together last time I saw that many together in my yard was right before a big storm.... is something brewing Did those deer migrate from Nova Scotia? If not, then probably nothing to worry about! I'm fairly confident we don't see much from this upcoming storm. When the I95 crowd is sweating it being to far east we don't have much of a chance. We need everything to shift 500 miles west while maintaining all the same interactions between the various players. I haven't put my snow shovel away yet, but maybe I should. The last few winters I seem to have gotten a bigger storm less than a week after I put it away. Grasping at straws here with superstitions... anybody good with voodoo? This winter has been great for tracking, lots of snow, and cold, but its also been frustrating to some degree with the lack of a 6+ storm and all the last minute suppression storms. It's probably fitting we close it out missing a triple phase bomb to our east. At least there are some signs of more Spring like weather in the extended. Never would have thought I wouldn't feel completely satisfied by a 60 inch + winter, but this one leaves me with a feeling of what could have been or the sense of unfinished business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 U should of put that shovel away 10 times . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 U should of put that shovel away 10 times . Shovel and sleds put away. Massive west shift en route tonight at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Shovel and sleds put away. Massive west shift en route tonight at 00z. Well I am gonna get the summer chairs, toys, and othef things out at my house. I might even set up a beach umbrella and beach towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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