Rdd9108 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 One last hurrah! Have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 51 on Monday and possibly mid 50's Tuesday. Time to get salt off the cars. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's nice not to be in the sweet spot 6 days out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 45, sunny and little wind, it's gonna feel like summer today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I was up at Boyce park in my neibor hood. 4 trails ski ing still open. And. Sled riding. They made almost triple there all time record in profits this year. That speaks of the bitter cold and snow this winter pulled off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Drove today with the windows down for the first time in a while and it felt good. I am a huge snow lover, but after today and back to back nice days next week, I am going to be in Spring fever with wanting to be outside running around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 EURO says dont get too comfortable with the sunny weather.. Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 33% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 33% 956 x 532 (186.32K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yeah I hope the Euro verifies but we all know how these models have trended. The wxbell map matches up with that map as well with us seeing 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yeah I hope the Euro verifies but we all know how these models have trended. The wxbell map matches up with that map as well with us seeing 10-12. Yep, verbatim Euro is a solid hit, wouldn't mind it trending just a bit SE though as we are close to the Southern edge. Euro keeps showing this general idea though. Not sure what to make of other guidance not having much of anything on the radar that looks like this solution though. Definitely a red flag. Would be nice to see everything trend towards a major hit instead of away from one for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yep, verbatim Euro is a solid hit, wouldn't mind it trending just a bit SE though as we are close to the Southern edge. Euro keeps showing this general idea though. Not sure what to make of other guidance not having much of anything on the radar that looks like this solution though. Definitely a red flag. Would be nice to see everything trend towards a major hit instead of away from one for once. Agreed. I am interested to see what Bernie thinks of the Euro. He seems to be leaning in that direction but as always he could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 NWS seems to think NO big storm but it is early and with what happened last week they would be smart not to say anything until models come together by maybe Sunday or Monday. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1217 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A WEAK SATURDAYNIGHT COLD FRONT.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...COOL SFC REINFORCEMENT VIA ELY FLOW COMPONENT WL BE OFFSET BYINSOLATION AND SHALLOW MIXING TDA...HENCE...TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRTHE SEASONAL AVGS.OTHERWISE...DRY WEA WITH WEAK WARM ADVCTN WL CONT THROUGH TNGT ASFLAT UPR RIDGE BLDS OVR THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF E COASTLOW AND NRN PLNS TO GREAT LAKES TROFG.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG OVR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS PROGGED DYNAMICSPPRT IS LACKING...POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY WERE MAINTAINED WITHTHE ADVN OF THE BNDRY...AND WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV ON SATURDAYNGT. GIVEN THAT LACK OF SPPRT...AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILTY...WORDINGFOR LIGHT PCPN WAS INCLUDED...AS WAS MINIMAL QPF.IN ADDITION...WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE WOULDSPPRT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT CHANGE TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ASCOLDER AIR DRIFTS SWD.COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEFINTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSIONRESUMING WARM ADVCTN LTR ON SUNDAY.&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...LONG TERM WILL REMAINS QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELSARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE INTERACTIONBETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WED. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS SEEMTO BE IN OKAY AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT AND LOW WELL SOUTH OFTHE AREA. THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING AN OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY MINORINTENSIFICATION. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD AIRS MARCH SOUTHWARD WILLBE HELD AT BAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH NC/VA.THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TOTHE SURFACE LOW.COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Agreed. I am interested to see what Bernie thinks of the Euro. He seems to be leaning in that direction but as always he could be wrong. Either way I'm rooting for a wound up system like the Euro shows even if we don't get all snow from it. It'll be mid march by next week so better go big or go home. I don't want to see some sheared apart system meandering by to the south. The pattern does point to something big being possible, so that gives the Euro some cred in my eyes, but its still not the old faithful it used to be in that you could really latch onto its solutions once it got within 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Drove today with the windows down for the first time in a while and it felt good. I am a huge snow lover, but after today and back to back nice days next week, I am going to be in Spring fever with wanting to be outside running around. Hope there are a couple more snow events for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 NWS seems to think NO big storm but it is early and with what happened last week they would be smart not to say anything until models come together by maybe Sunday or Monday. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1217 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A WEAK SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COOL SFC REINFORCEMENT VIA ELY FLOW COMPONENT WL BE OFFSET BY INSOLATION AND SHALLOW MIXING TDA...HENCE...TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR THE SEASONAL AVGS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEA WITH WEAK WARM ADVCTN WL CONT THROUGH TNGT AS FLAT UPR RIDGE BLDS OVR THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF E COAST LOW AND NRN PLNS TO GREAT LAKES TROFG. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG OVR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS PROGGED DYNAMIC SPPRT IS LACKING...POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY WERE MAINTAINED WITH THE ADVN OF THE BNDRY...AND WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV ON SATURDAY NGT. GIVEN THAT LACK OF SPPRT...AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILTY...WORDING FOR LIGHT PCPN WAS INCLUDED...AS WAS MINIMAL QPF. IN ADDITION...WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE WOULD SPPRT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT CHANGE TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS COLDER AIR DRIFTS SWD. COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSION RESUMING WARM ADVCTN LTR ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM WILL REMAINS QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WED. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS SEEM TO BE IN OKAY AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT AND LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING AN OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY MINOR INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD AIRS MARCH SOUTHWARD WILL BE HELD AT BAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH NC/VA. THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && Agree, Even if all the models were showing a big storm I think NWS and other outlets are going to be snake bitten after the last system. Heck we don't even know if the 12z Euro ens agree with the op. If by Sunday as you mentioned we still have a big storm with other models on board I would expect to see some mention in the discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Either way I'm rooting for a wound up system like the Euro shows even if we don't get all snow from it. It'll be mid march by next week so better go big or go home. I don't want to see some sheared apart system meandering by to the south. The pattern does point to something big being possible, so that gives the Euro some cred in my eyes, but its still not the old faithful it used to be in that you could really latch onto its solutions once it got within 5 days out. I'm with you, I would rather see a HECS that might be slop than 2 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This weather is so nice if it's not over 9 or 10 inches I don't want it ,, don't mean to be greedy. But this weather is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The perfect scenario to end this historic cold winter ,, models trend toward a monstor that makes the 93 blizzard look like a snow squall off Lake Erie ,, we get 60 mph wind. 4 feet of snow and it's a nice 2 day storm no casualties then we have one week to play then bring on summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 18z GFS looks like it took a step towards the Euro. Yeah, I'm sucked back into to checking these damn model runs multiple times a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 53 today! Nicest day this year... Im ready for spring, please no more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Was very surprised to see John Burnett talk about the potential storm next week. The have 40 and mix for next Wed as forecast but he mentioned possibility of significant snow. Even mention possible to have all snow. Showed the Accuweather graphic with strong storm path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Was very surprised to see John Burnett talk about the potential storm next week. The have 40 and mix for next Wed as forecast but he mentioned possibility of significant snow. Even mention possible to have all snow. Showed the Accuweather graphic with strong storm path Hes a good met. He knows not to look just at the GFS and look at the whole pattern. 93 redux, lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'm laying back enjoying the balmy 46 degrees at 1030 pm wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 53 today! Nicest day this year... Im ready for spring, please no more snow. Bah! We have 71/2 months for "nice" weather. If we can get a March bomb I say bring it. But to each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 00z GFS similar to the 18z, wanting to bury the energy coming out of the NW, back into California. The other two pieces of energy, one along the Canadian border, the other closer to Mexico, keep moving along. Seems to follow the theme of this winter, potent yet disjointed systems traversing the country. Mabey the Mets over in the Central PA thread, see some different options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 00z GFS similar to the 18z, wanting to bury the energy coming out of the NW, back into California. The other two pieces of energy, one along the Canadian border, the other closer to Mexico, keep moving along. Seems to follow the theme of this winter, potent yet disjointed systems traversing the country. Mabey the Mets over in the Central PA thread, see some different options. I thought 18z was a step in the right direction for those looking for a big storm. I really though the 00z would continue that. If the Euro is going to get schooled by the GFS I would expect it to cave soon. If this isn't going to happen hopefully it becomes clear early on so we don't have something fall apart 72 hours out again. At least the earlier runs the ens of the GFS, GGEM and Euro were pretty close to each other per the discussion in the NE thread. Still a pretty far lead time so really anything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro backs off with the snow totals on the 00z run. Still combines lows but overall weaker for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro backs off with the snow totals on the 00z run. Still combines lows but overall weaker for this run. Definitely not the trend we wanted to see. 06z GFS looks a little better, but verbatim its probably a mix. If 12z continues the less phasing and weaker solution the writing is probably on the wall. There is always that old weenie adage that models sometimes lose the storm for a few cycles so I guess if that has any merit that may be what we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Definitely not the trend we wanted to see. 06z GFS looks a little better, but verbatim its probably a mix. If 12z continues the less phasing and weaker solution the writing is probably on the wall. There is always that old weenie adage that models sometimes lose the storm for a few cycles so I guess if that has any merit that may be what we are seeing. Gotta love "weenie adages". Most of the time when models lose a storm its because...well...there is no storm! I'm in March mode which is all or nothing. Would rather have 50 degrees than 2". Of course I would always rather 2' than 50 deg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 If the Euro gets any worse I think I will be done. Hahaha who am I kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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