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Pittsburgh/ Western PA Part III


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Drove today with the windows down for the first time in a while and it felt good.

 

I am a huge snow lover, but after today and back to back nice days next week, I am going to be in Spring fever with wanting to be outside running around.

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Yeah I hope the Euro verifies but we all know how these models have trended. The wxbell map matches up with that map as well with us seeing 10-12.

Yep, verbatim Euro is a solid hit, wouldn't mind it trending just a bit SE though as we are close to the Southern edge.

 

Euro keeps showing this general idea though. Not sure what to make of other guidance not having much of anything on the radar that looks like this solution though. Definitely a red flag. Would be nice to see everything trend towards a major hit instead of away from one for once.

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Yep, verbatim Euro is a solid hit, wouldn't mind it trending just a bit SE though as we are close to the Southern edge.

Euro keeps showing this general idea though. Not sure what to make of other guidance not having much of anything on the radar that looks like this solution though. Definitely a red flag. Would be nice to see everything trend towards a major hit instead of away from one for once.

Agreed. I am interested to see what Bernie thinks of the Euro. He seems to be leaning in that direction but as always he could be wrong.
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NWS seems to think NO big storm but it is early and with what happened last week they would be smart not to say anything until models come together by maybe Sunday or Monday.

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1217 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A WEAK SATURDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL SFC REINFORCEMENT VIA ELY FLOW COMPONENT WL BE OFFSET BY
INSOLATION AND SHALLOW MIXING TDA...HENCE...TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR
THE SEASONAL AVGS.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEA WITH WEAK WARM ADVCTN WL CONT THROUGH TNGT AS
FLAT UPR RIDGE BLDS OVR THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF E COAST
LOW AND NRN PLNS TO GREAT LAKES TROFG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG OVR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS PROGGED DYNAMIC
SPPRT IS LACKING...POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY WERE MAINTAINED WITH
THE ADVN OF THE BNDRY...AND WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV ON SATURDAY
NGT. GIVEN THAT LACK OF SPPRT...AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILTY...WORDING
FOR LIGHT PCPN WAS INCLUDED...AS WAS MINIMAL QPF.

IN ADDITION...WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE WOULD
SPPRT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT CHANGE TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS
COLDER AIR DRIFTS SWD.

COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEF
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSION
RESUMING WARM ADVCTN LTR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM WILL REMAINS QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WED. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS SEEM
TO BE IN OKAY AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT AND LOW WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING AN OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY MINOR
INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD AIRS MARCH SOUTHWARD WILL
BE HELD AT BAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH NC/VA.
THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW.


COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

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Agreed. I am interested to see what Bernie thinks of the Euro. He seems to be leaning in that direction but as always he could be wrong.

Either way I'm rooting for a wound up system like the Euro shows even if we don't get all snow from it. It'll be mid march by next week so better go big or go home. I don't want to see some sheared apart system meandering by to the south. The pattern does point to something big being possible, so that gives the Euro some cred in my eyes, but its still not the old faithful it used to be in that you could really latch onto its solutions once it got within 5 days out.

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Drove today with the windows down for the first time in a while and it felt good.

I am a huge snow lover, but after today and back to back nice days next week, I am going to be in Spring fever with wanting to be outside running around.

Hope there are a couple more snow events for sure.

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NWS seems to think NO big storm but it is early and with what happened last week they would be smart not to say anything until models come together by maybe Sunday or Monday.

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1217 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A WEAK SATURDAY

NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

COOL SFC REINFORCEMENT VIA ELY FLOW COMPONENT WL BE OFFSET BY

INSOLATION AND SHALLOW MIXING TDA...HENCE...TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR

THE SEASONAL AVGS.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEA WITH WEAK WARM ADVCTN WL CONT THROUGH TNGT AS

FLAT UPR RIDGE BLDS OVR THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF E COAST

LOW AND NRN PLNS TO GREAT LAKES TROFG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG OVR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS PROGGED DYNAMIC

SPPRT IS LACKING...POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY WERE MAINTAINED WITH

THE ADVN OF THE BNDRY...AND WITH THE TRAILING SHRTWV ON SATURDAY

NGT. GIVEN THAT LACK OF SPPRT...AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILTY...WORDING

FOR LIGHT PCPN WAS INCLUDED...AS WAS MINIMAL QPF.

IN ADDITION...WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE WOULD

SPPRT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT CHANGE TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS

COLDER AIR DRIFTS SWD.

COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEF

INTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSION

RESUMING WARM ADVCTN LTR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LONG TERM WILL REMAINS QUIET UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS

ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE INTERACTION

BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WED. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST GFS SEEM

TO BE IN OKAY AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT AND LOW WELL SOUTH OF

THE AREA. THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING AN OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY MINOR

INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD AIRS MARCH SOUTHWARD WILL

BE HELD AT BAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH NC/VA.

THIS WOULD MEAN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO

THE SURFACE LOW.

COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

Agree, Even if all the models were showing a big storm I think NWS and other outlets are going to be snake bitten after the last system. Heck we don't even know if the 12z Euro ens agree with the op. If by Sunday as you mentioned we still have a big storm with other models on board I would expect to see some mention in the discussions.

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Either way I'm rooting for a wound up system like the Euro shows even if we don't get all snow from it. It'll be mid march by next week so better go big or go home. I don't want to see some sheared apart system meandering by to the south. The pattern does point to something big being possible, so that gives the Euro some cred in my eyes, but its still not the old faithful it used to be in that you could really latch onto its solutions once it got within 5 days out.

I'm with you, I would rather see a HECS that might be slop than 2 inches of snow.
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Was very surprised to see John Burnett talk about the potential storm next week.  The have 40 and mix for next Wed as forecast but he mentioned possibility of significant snow. Even mention possible to have all snow.  Showed the Accuweather graphic with strong storm path

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Was very surprised to see John Burnett talk about the potential storm next week. The have 40 and mix for next Wed as forecast but he mentioned possibility of significant snow. Even mention possible to have all snow. Showed the Accuweather graphic with strong storm path

Hes a good met. He knows not to look just at the GFS and look at the whole pattern. 93 redux, lets do it.
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00z GFS similar to the 18z, wanting to bury the energy coming out of the NW, back into California.

 

The other two pieces of energy, one along the Canadian border, the other closer to Mexico, keep moving along.

 

Seems to follow the theme of this winter, potent yet disjointed systems traversing the country.

 

Mabey the Mets over in the Central PA thread, see some different options.

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00z GFS similar to the 18z, wanting to bury the energy coming out of the NW, back into California.

 

The other two pieces of energy, one along the Canadian border, the other closer to Mexico, keep moving along.

 

Seems to follow the theme of this winter, potent yet disjointed systems traversing the country.

 

Mabey the Mets over in the Central PA thread, see some different options.

I thought 18z was a step in the right direction for those looking for a big storm. I really though the 00z would continue that. If the Euro is going to get schooled by the GFS I would expect it to cave soon. If this isn't going to happen hopefully it becomes clear early on so we don't have something fall apart 72 hours out again. At least the earlier runs the ens of the GFS, GGEM and Euro were pretty close to each other per the discussion in the NE thread. Still a pretty far lead time so really anything is on the table.

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Euro backs off with the snow totals on the 00z run. Still combines lows but overall weaker for this run.

 

euro2_zps5969e924.png

:thumbsdown:  Definitely not the trend we wanted to see. 06z GFS looks a little better, but verbatim its probably a mix. If 12z continues the less phasing and weaker solution the writing is probably on the wall. There is always that old weenie adage that models sometimes lose the storm for a few cycles so I guess if that has any merit that may be what we are seeing.

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:thumbsdown: Definitely not the trend we wanted to see. 06z GFS looks a little better, but verbatim its probably a mix. If 12z continues the less phasing and weaker solution the writing is probably on the wall. There is always that old weenie adage that models sometimes lose the storm for a few cycles so I guess if that has any merit that may be what we are seeing.

Gotta love "weenie adages".

Most of the time when models lose a storm its because...well...there is no storm!

I'm in March mode which is all or nothing. Would rather have 50 degrees than 2". Of course I would always rather 2' than 50 deg!

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