snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Don't have the spread on wxbell but I got a glance at the individual members and several look amped and NW although there is quite the variety. Here's the spread from uk online. Definitely looks like most members are near or north of the ensemble mean. 14031212_0812.gif 14031312_0812.gif Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Vort over idaho looking significantly further east compared to the 12z GFS. Southern cutoff also much weaker at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Stronger and west compared to 12z so far. Sub 995 at HR 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Started off promising but less phasing this run. Everything shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Still some lame solutions in the 18z GEFS but they look a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well the NAM took no time to transition to a more GFS-esque solution, if not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well the NAM took no time to transition to a more GFS-esque solution, if not worse. Worse in my case being that its north of the GFS with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was hoping for at least a weenie run or two from the NAM, but that obviously isn't going to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Alek's long range calls>>>>>>>the NAM outside 36 hours. Think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was hoping for at least a weenie run or two from the NAM, but that obviously isn't going to happen... Besides the fact that its the LR NAM the SREF mean does have a better look for those wanting a further NW track. The spread is huge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z GFS has a solid 3-6" for I-70 and north in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 There is a lot more cold sector precip this run, and it is further north. Baby steps, but they're positive none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GEM went south. Absolutely no rhyme or reason for what the models are doing now. I'm going to go with the seasonal trend of northern stream domination and say this is a non-event north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Central OH, PA, and NY are the big winners off the GGEM. Generally under 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z Euro bombs out over MD at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Euro coming in stronger and better QPF in cold sector as well. Track is now along river ( vs just south ) but ends up at nearly the same point in WV as 12z except it is showing a 988mb low vs 992mb on 12z.. Almost .75 in LAF on this run with the .50+ line running from Kankakee east and along the MI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Euro coming in stronger and better QPF in cold sector as well. Track is now along river ( vs just south ) but ends up at nearly the same point in WV as 12z except it is showing a 988mb low vs 992mb on 12z.. Almost .75 in LAF on this run with the .50+ line running from Kankakee east and along the MI border. Agreed 7-9" for LAF on the Euro based on Kuchera snowfall method, I suspect that this will be the last major winter storm that will affect the LAF area. Hope it holds for you guys. I suspect it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah Euro destroys LAF with heavy snow. Fits seasonal trends, so it's probably on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Two consistent EURO runs. I guess that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If the northern stream allows the entire mass to eject out................. Not believing that, climo would suggest it should be warming up to the se, the only way that this ejects out if the northern stream is dominant, and drops further south, I believe the baroclinic zone is set up properly on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Not believing that, climo would suggest it should be warming up to the se, the only way that this ejects out if the northern stream is dominant, and drops further south, I believe the baroclinic zone is set up properly on the Euro. It almost follows the snow cover line interestingly enough.. Will probably see more wobbles between now and then but yeah something closer to the euro idea is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Starting to get close to a 2-4" wet snow event Wednesday morning. After highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. Geezus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Two consistent EURO runs. I guess that's something. Another little uptick in QPF. Now has the 0.5" QPF line up to hamilton with 0.3-0.4" across the GTA. Only red flag I am seeing is a less impressive defo zone on the ensembles and OP. May be the case where the meso's handle it better inside ~48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Another little uptick in QPF. Now has the 0.5" QPF line up to hamilton with 0.3-0.4" across the GTA. Only red flag I am seeing is a less impressive defo zone on the ensembles and OP. May be the case where the meso's handle it better inside ~48hrs. I'm not feeling this. Trough axis is too far east, even on the EURO, to really get us good. The few decent GEFS solutions at 0z were gone at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z Euro pretty much the pinnacle run for here. No where to go but down now, haha. Other than a few blips, Euro and its ensembles have been insistent on this storm being a bigger deal for the region. Have to like that idea. Finer details and who gets hit is still very much TBD. IND saying no big deal...going with the old warm ground defense. Oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z Euro ensembles at 96 hours seem to indicate some "left of the mean" members. Will in the SNE forum mentioned how the PNA ridge keeps getting a bit flatter with each run...and if that continues, this could run run through NY state. If of course. Certainly would watch that possibility for the southern ON crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z NAM coming in way more amped and west through HR 54 so far. 996 in C. KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z Euro ensembles at 96 hours seem to indicate some "left of the mean" members. Will in the SNE forum mentioned how the PNA ridge keeps getting a bit flatter with each run...and if that continues, this could run run through NY state. If of course. Certainly would watch that possibility for the southern ON crew. 3:9 0z EC ENSM 96.gif I've partially checked out with this one. Climatologically doesn't fit the bill for us. Looks like the NAM is somewhat more amplified out in the Plains by 54. Just enough to keep me from completely shutting off the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z NAM coming in way more amped and west through HR 54 so far. 996 in C. KS ? Looks like 1000 on the OK/KS line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I've partially checked out with this one. Climatologically doesn't fit the bill for us. Looks like the NAM is somewhat more amplified out in the Plains by 54. Just enough to keep me from completely shutting off the computer. I don't know...I don't see why you'd check out at all for GTA with this one, at this stage. But if the NAM is the only thing keeping your interest alive, pull the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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