snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 If it wasn't for the POS spinning in the gulf, this one would probably have decent big dog potential (and the sky would have been the limit). Also, that kicker coming into BC around 96 de-amplifies the PNA ridge which prevents the northern stream s/w from digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GGEM HR 84 0z HR 96 LOL That's cute. So we least there's now one of two ways we can get screwed with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Also, that kicker coming into BC around 96 de-amplifies the PNA ridge which prevents the northern stream s/w from digging. Even with the kicker wave, this system would probably still be somewhat doable if the heights ahead of it had breathing room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Also, that kicker coming into BC around 96 de-amplifies the PNA ridge which prevents the northern stream s/w from digging. Based on the black and white maps from EC, looks like the 12z GEM is a decent hit for us. Probably a 3-6" swath in there along with mixing/rain on the southern side. Need to wait for the 6hr maps to come out. Edit: Americanwx maps have 5-6" through the GTA with 7-8" amounts east of grimsby/fort erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Based on the black and white maps from EC, looks like the 12z GEM is a decent hit for us. Probably a 3-6" swath in there along with mixing/rain on the southern side. Need to wait for the 6hr maps to come out. Edit: Americanwx maps have 5-6" through the GTA with 7-8" amounts east of grimsby/fort erie. 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg It's been so inconsistent though it's hard to give its solution much credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Not giving up on the idea of a moderate to possibly heavy event. Too many players on the field but one thing that seems increasingly clear is that a piece gets left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 ChiStorm thread magic has run dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12Z GEM looks great. Interesting band hits Toronto Monday morning followed by some good snows on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It's been so inconsistent though it's hard to give its solution much credence. The real question is, what model has ever been consistent? In a winter like this, its hard to give any model credence till within 48 hours. When is this event going to be fully sampled? I think the models are to progressive but similarly, we haven't seen any decent phased storms this season so its difficult to put much faith in this one. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12Z GEM looks great. Interesting band hits Toronto Monday morning followed by some good snows on Wednesday I noticed that as well. Too bad the Euro/NAM suite is further east. The RGEM really plays up the upsloping in and around hamilton. The 12z euro should be interesting regarding the wednesday threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12Z GEM looks great. Interesting band hits Toronto Monday morning followed by some good snows on Wednesday So now that the GEM shows a decent hit are you jumping in with both feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z GEFS have a couple of interesting solutions with the majority being garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Gulf piece on the 12z euro looking weaker compared to the 0z run. More energy looks to get drawn from the piece over the rockies. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a NW and more amped solution. Edit: Definitely coming in much further NW. LP centre across N VA by 0z thursday instead of off the S NJ coast. Step in the right direction for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Pretty good interaction with northern stream shortwave that run...still lacking any consistency though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Gulf piece on the 12z euro looking weaker compared to the 0z run. More energy looks to get drawn from the piece over the rockies. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a NW and more amped solution. Edit: Definitely coming in much further NW. LP centre across N VA by 0z thursday instead of off the S NJ coast. Step in the right direction for the GTA. Based on RH plots it's verbatim a graze job for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Based on RH plots it's verbatim a graze job for us? Ya it has ~0.2-0.3" of QPF for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Ya it has ~0.2-0.3" of QPF for us. lol, that's better than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 euro track along/near the river from just south of Evansville 996mb to just south of Wheeling at 992mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 So basically, the EURO's just about back to where it was before the last 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 So basically, the EURO's just about back to where it was before the last 00z run. About that.. perhaps a shade further nw then that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 About that.. perhaps a shade further nw then that was. What are precip/snow amounts like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 So basically, the EURO's just about back to where it was before the last 00z run. Nothing impressive for us tho... 2-4", Monroe gets most.. ....Wayne, Monroe, Oakland, Macomb, anyone west of that, meh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 What are precip/snow amounts like? Grazes us, via wunderground maps. Not that it matters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Grazes us, via wunderground maps. Not that it matters right now. Just saw. That kind of track would normally hammer us but agree that it doesn't matter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 So now that the GEM shows a decent hit are you jumping in with both feet? Nah, but finally worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Fort Wayne TV mets are already throwing up the weenie panic maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 EURO ensemble mean looks almost identical to the 12z OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 EURO ensemble mean looks almost identical to the 12z OP run. It has a more robust QPF shield then the OP bringing 0.4-0.5" of liquid into the GTA. The euro control has 0.7-0.8" of QPF which is pretty much just the op run at a lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It has a more robust QPF shield then the OP bringing 0.4-0.5" of liquid into the GTA. The euro control has 0.7-0.8" of QPF which is pretty much just the op run at a lower resolution. Do the maps you use show spread? It'd be interesting to know if there's any specific clustering of ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Do the maps you use show spread? It'd be interesting to know if there's any specific clustering of ensemble members. Don't have the spread on wxbell but I got a glance at the individual members and several look amped and NW although there is quite the variety. Here's the spread from uk online. Definitely looks like most members are near or north of the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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