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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Mean is similar to the OP and the control run is a bit north.

 

Individual members are all over.

Yeah, the big takeaway from the Euro ensembles is those that did form a system were pretty amplified, even a couple had rain for here. However there were some duds in the mix, I would say a 70/30 ratio of amplified vs duds from the Euro ensembles.

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GFS basically showing a non-event. T-1.5" for the lower Lakes now. 3-4" for Western NY.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

 

GGEM is still way Northwest. Many of the GFS showed a suppressed storm, will be interesting to see if the Euro stays amped or goes more suppressed

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GGEM tracks the storm in question across the TN valley. The "way northwest" storm is an earlier clipper.

 

Yep and it is much further south then the 12z GGEM was..

 

 

It is about trends and suffice to say tonights have not been encouraging at all.

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12z GFS took a step in the right direction. The gulf disturbance is a bit further east compared to the 0z/6z runs so there is more involvement between the northern stream and rockies vort max. As a result, over running precip is more impressive with that H7 kick from out west.

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12z GFS took a step in the right direction. The gulf disturbance is a bit further east compared to the 0z/6z runs so there is more involvement between the northern stream and rockies vort max. As a result, over running precip is more impressive with that H7 kick from out west.

 

Baby steps are fine, but at this point we need Yeti steps.

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Faint pulse for a 3-6 type event. Any hope for a big dog though dies in the desert SW with that orphaned s/w. 

 

If it wasn't for the POS spinning in the gulf, this one would probably have decent big dog potential (and the sky would have been the limit).

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