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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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LOT 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
948 PM CDT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF
INTEREST NOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM IS EVEN PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO AT THIS TIME.
THE NEW 00 UTC NAM IS CURRENTLY ROLLING IN AND IS VERY CONCERNING
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TRACKS THE LOWER
LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING
THE CHICAGO METRO AND RFD AREAS. ALSO GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWLY BEEN INCHING NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...I CANNOT DISCOUNT
THE NAM SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A LOT GOING FOR
IT...WITH ALL MODELS EVEN INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING
ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD FGEN SETTING UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...HEAVY SNOW...MAYBE EVEN WITH CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

IN SPITE OF ALL THIS...HOWEVER...RATHER THAN SHIFTING THE WATCH
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ILLINOIS...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW
00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
HEADLINES...TO ENSURE THAT A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO
GO. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
NOW THAT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...THE 00UTC RAOBS SHOULD BE SAMPLING IT NOW...SO THE
NEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SYSTEM.

KJB

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