hm8 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 By the way that map posted above is based on the Kuchera snowfall method instead of 10:1 ratio's and the32° line like weather bell uses. Euro clown maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro clown maps! That is like a clown car full of clowns making that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Fwiw WxBell now has individual Euro ensemble maps...there's a few fun solutions within them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEM too far north, GFS too far south. Neither of them get that potent s/w from the Pacific involved. Just kind of meanders over the Four Corners area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS turned into a weak southern and eastern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Ole GooFuS model still good for a lol.. Not sure what is worse the GooFuS or WxBell and their clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Ole GooFuS model still good for a lol.. Not sure what is worse the GooFuS or WxBell and their clown maps? I dunno. GEM backed off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Meh. Only one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I dunno. GEM backed off too. Interesting.. It also leaves a piece of energy behind in the sw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I dunno. GEM backed off too. GEM was mostly northern stream on 12z run so it was pretty much the same. As for the GFS the whole evolution doesn't make sense, it has cutoff after cutoff diving into the southwest some of which go as deep as the Baja, plus none of these systems act like a kicker either, just cutoff after cutoff through the run. I find that a bit unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Interesting.. It also leaves a piece of energy behind in the sw? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEM was mostly northern stream on 12z run so it was pretty much the same. As for the GFS the whole evolution doesn't make sense, it has cutoff after cutoff diving into the southwest some of which go as deep as the Baja, plus none of these systems act like a kicker either, just cutoff after cutoff through the run. I find that a bit unbelievable. Good points.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEM was mostly northern stream on 12z run so it was pretty much the same. As for the GFS the whole evolution doesn't make sense, it has cutoff after cutoff diving into the southwest some of which go as deep as the Baja, plus none of these systems act like a kicker either, just cutoff after cutoff through the run. I find that a bit unbelievable. 12z GEM did partially phase that southern stream wave though by about 144. 0z is a complete orphaning of the southern stream. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif That piece of energy over NM kicked out on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 0z Euro going to be a bomb again. Already at 994mb on the OK/TX border at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 0z Euro going to be a bomb again. Already at 994mb on the OK/TX border at hour 120. Yup. Even with its bias it's going to be the model that's NOT going to leave energy behind in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 992mb at KY/VA border at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 992mb at KY/VA border at hour 144. Further south and not as deep as I would have thought looking at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Interesting that it literally goes due east...and at 120 I thought it was going to bomb out...but it did not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Still a huge amount of potential with this that can't be ignored. The models have been atrocious this season and seem to be getting worse, so I think the potential is what matters at this point. It very well could go either way, but at least SOME portion of the subforum has decent potential for a thumping with this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 As for the 00z euro ensembles.. Stronger/further north vs 12z. The mean is about as strong as the OP with a track near the river and thus north of the OP run. A number of it's members have a stronger system then the OP run. The .50+ qpf line shifted from a IND to Toledo line on the 12z to a Chicago to Saginaw line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 we are seeing a lot of the seasonal trends with regards to south stream pieces rear their heads on these lame OP runs, still hope from the ensembles and potential but the Geos MSN special is probably off the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Big shift NW in the euro ensmble mean. It brings the low near the OH/WV/PA border and takes the 0.8" QPF line up towards the toronto lakeshore and points SW towards CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Pretty much every single GGEM ensemble member disagrees with the op run (0z). Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 most regional afds are pretty zzzzz on the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 most regional afds are pretty zzzzz on the period What are they supposed to say 5-6 days out, when there are wide ranging model solutions? Not sure you can make much of it. From the ones I care about, IND and IWX say they don't know yet...which is perfectly fine at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 FWIW, 0z Euro ensembles at 132 hours: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43115-giant-signal-for-mid-month-this-was-noted-in-the-teleconnectors-earliar-this-week/?p=2862539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 FWIW, 0z Euro ensembles at 132 hours: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43115-giant-signal-for-mid-month-this-was-noted-in-the-teleconnectors-earliar-this-week/?p=2862539 6z GFS looked a lot better ensemble wise compared to 0z. About half showed barely a storm but the other half looked solid. FWIW, 6z GEFS...more or less all or nothing with the phase and storm potential...sounds/looks like the euro/ggem ensembles are more bullish on phasing and subsequent slp development as well. On the positve front...more phased solutions continue to advertise a healthy defo zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I think the key to this thread is potential. Fun to watch the model development and analysis and that's about it. Let's wait till 48hrs to make any serious first calls. As winter draws to a close it would be great to have one epic event to put a nice explanation point on this season of awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 strictly for S&Gs before the rest of the 12z guidance 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I think the key to this thread is potential. Fun to watch the model development and analysis and that's about it. Let's wait till 48hrs to make any serious first calls. As winter draws to a close it would be great to have one epic event to put a nice explanation point on this season of awesomeness. The number of strong solutions in ensembles clearly points out that there is clearly potential...but everything needs to come together for potential to be realized. We could easily see nothing. But what a bang we would send this winter out with if we get a big storm. I honestly never thought 1880-81 would be in jeopardy. The closest any winter got to it was 15.6" LESS snow...until this year. To see the potential that still exists is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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