BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 you could tell by hr 12 the GFS wouldn't play ball with the NAM idea NAM is on some good stuff with 30 inch totals in YYZ. That's unprecedented stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 YYZ model summary 18z RGEM: ~0.6" of QPF 15z SREF mean: 13-14" 18z GFS: 8-10" on 0.5" QPF 18z NAM: 24"+ on 1.6" of QPF 12z euro: 0.3" of QPF 12z UKMET: ~0.6" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hope all will indulge me in some straw grasping... There might be a small convective feedback issue with the GFS at 36 over srn Indiana. Noticed that as well, the Euro does the same too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z/18z 4km NAM give us 8-10", while GFS and Euro are 2" or less. Just gonna stick with the 2-4" call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 YYZ model summary 18z RGEM: ~0.6" of QPF 15z SREF mean: 13-14" 18z GFS: 8-10" on 0.5" QPF 18z NAM: 24"+ on 1.6" of QPF 12z euro: 0.3" of QPF 12z UKMET: ~0.6" of QPF Might as well just wait to see if we can get some convergence with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 21z RAP not backing down. Even stronger 12hrs in down to 994mb compared to 996mb on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 DTX snow tables: MEDIAN: MAX: Prob > 4" 6": 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Noticed that as well, the Euro does the same too. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/avneastloop.html If you loop it you can see the sfc low takes this inexplicable jog to the south after 36 before turning NE again. Might be something to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hope all will indulge me in some straw grasping... There might be a small convective feedback issue with the GFS at 36 over srn Indiana. Better wait for better sampling. 21z RAP not backing down. Even stronger 12hrs in down to 994mb compared to 996mb on the 18z run. You going to stay up all night to watch every run of the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Shocked to find us under a watch already in Detroit. Almost makes me anxious to see if it'll bust since this year we're all about the sneak storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On another note, a beautiful day outside today. Snowpack is just barely hanging on, so this storm couldn't be happening at a better time to help preserve the snowpack. Since it should be somewhat heavier and wetter than most snows this year and with such cold followed immediately behind it, this could keep the streak alive well past the current record at DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Better wait for better sampling. You going to stay up all night to watch every run of the RAP? Yep. Short break now hitting golf balls at a park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Over/Under for DTW set at 6" Go>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS doesn't budge. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On another note, a beautiful day outside today. Snowpack is just barely hanging on, so this storm couldn't be happening at a better time to help preserve the snowpack. Since it should be somewhat heavier and wetter than most snows this year and with such cold followed immediately behind it, this could keep the streak alive well past the current record at DTW. How's your snowpack doing down by detroit? I just measured mine up here, 11" for official measurement, 9" in the most sunny wind exposed area, and 13" in the shadiest least wind exposed area here... so 11" is my official reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 How's your snowpack doing down by detroit? I just measured mine up here, 11" for official measurement, 9" in the most sunny wind exposed area, and 13" in the shadiest least wind exposed area here... so 11" is my official reading. I'm in a more urban environment but about 5" in my neighborhood. I'm assuming DTW is more around 7" or 8" after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Thought we might see a slight northward bump on the 18z GFS but not to be. Let the drama continue. I don't know which camp is going to be closer to reality but we might start getting some hints pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Over/Under for DTW set at 6" Go>>>> Let's do this old school style: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43171-quick-contest-march-11-12-snowfall/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Since conditions may flirt with criteria, was looking back at product archives for LOT and IWX and can't find any blizzard warnings in the month of March. Archive doesn't go back very far though. I read a blizzard climo paper a while back and I believe January was the most climatologically favorable month for most of the region. One would've been justified on 3/9/1998 but that storm was so poorly forecasted and I can't recall if or when any headlines were issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/avneastloop.html If you loop it you can see the sfc low takes this inexplicable jog to the south after 36 before turning NE again. Might be something to watch out for. Yeah it basically stalled or drifted south for 6 hours while strengthening, that looks a bit goofy. The 12z definitely didn't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Since conditions may flirt with criteria, was looking back at product archives for LOT and IWX and can't find any blizzard warnings in the month of March. Archive doesn't go back very far though. I read a blizzard climo paper a while back and I believe January was the most climatologically favorable month for most of the region. One would've been justified on 3/9/1998 but that storm was so poorly forecasted and I can't recall if or when any headlines were issued. Not those CWAs, but I know there was a Blizzard Warning for parts of OH with the March 2008 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not those CWAs, but I know there was a Blizzard Warning for parts of OH with the March 2008 storm. Yeah it was ILN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah it was ILN. Yep. I wish I could remember/see the forecasts for March 1998. Such a failure by forecasters. For those wondering, this wasn't supposed to happen: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMDW/1998/3/9/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 still not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anybody think FNT could break the all-time snow record with this one? Only 5.7 inches is needed. I think that we will probably be a bit too far north for that much, but we should be able to get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anybody think FNT could break the all-time snow record with this one? Only 5.7 inches is needed. I think that we will probably be a bit too far north for that much, but we should be able to get a few inches. Certainly within range, I would probably say no but it won't miss the record by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anybody think FNT could break the all-time snow record with this one? Only 5.7 inches is needed. I think that we will probably be a bit too far north for that much, but we should be able to get a few inches. If you were to blend the NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO together I think FNT has a really good shot at 5" maybe up to 8" I think they might just jackpot this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 still not backing down Our fav the backup RUC has it at 992mb in NW MO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Bets on the NAM caving and wagons south at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Certainly within range, I would probably say no but it won't miss the record by much. Yeah, if we can get close with this storm, chances are high the record would be broken. But of course, you never know. If you were to blend the NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO together I think FNT has a really good shot at 5" maybe up to 8" I think they might just jackpot this one. I don't think FNT's going to "jackpot" this one. Probably too far north for that....Unless the NAM could be right for once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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