Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I don't know if I'd say better handle because it's hard to put a lot of trust in a NAM run even at this range. With that being said I think the Euro and GGEM are too far south and specifically the Euro has been too low on QPF here with some recent snow events, as pointed out by cyclone may be an issue with northern extent of cold sector qpf on Euro. The answer probably does lie in between the 2 extremes and 3-6" is more of what I'm expecting for the Chicago metro. Using the location of the upper level potential vorticity anomaly hook which has worked in other events this winter to foretell more of a northwest track of the surface low does offer that possibility here as well when looking at the 250 mb PVU surface on the 12z GFS and the 12z UKMET. Thanks. Gonnna be a tough forecast for the LOT area regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I posted 4-8" on Facebook just a moment ago for friends and family. I do think there is a higher potential but there is still time to refine the forecast locally. I'm really interested to see the 18Z NAM before jumping on the big dog bandwagon, as long as the Euro and GFS agree... This will be a small event for SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Thanks. Conclusion the same though. Indeed. Here's the last 5 runs of the Euro ensembles (and spread), centered on 12z Wednesday...12z runs only for exact comparison. Interesting look, as it continues to narrow the cone. March 6 run. March 7 run. March 8 run. March 9 run. March 10 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I've seen enough. I'm enjoying the melt & warmer temperatures. My house is ready to be done with the snow & cold. Unfortunately my gut tells me this is coming north from what the euro is showing. I hope it isn't a lot because I got an important place to be early in the morning that can't be postponed. If it was a weekend I could care a bit less. Expecting to see more shifts tonight and into tomorrow even. Winter storm watch down by Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z RGEM at 12 looks identical to the 18z NAM at 12. edit: by 24 RGEM is a little weaker and south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 RGEM HR 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 RGEM HR 36 Definitely stronger and further NW than the 6z run valid at the same time, but not quite as much as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z NAM with 50+kts at 925mb over northern IL tomorrow night in the deformation zone. That would be fun. Kinda surprised no office mentioned the B word even as a possibility (at least from what I saw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol 18z 4km NAM takes it to 988mb entering OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 trend is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 4km NAM gets it down to 988 in C. Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Kinda surprised no office mentioned the B word even as a possibility (at least from what I saw) Think once we get closer if these amped solutions verify we will. 55kts at 925mb is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 trend is real getting more excited by the hour. Banding potential looks sweet and wouldn't rule out some TSSN somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 getting more excited by the hour. Banding potential looks sweet and wouldn't rule out some TSSN somewhere. from a miss well south to sweating p type in 24hrs it's like 2007 all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Into the file of things that never were... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Mesoscale playing a big factor in this event. NAM may be a bit nuts at this point but I would give it some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 getting more excited by the hour. Banding potential looks sweet and wouldn't rule out some TSSN somewhere. 4km NAM showing some 30kt lollies over northern IL into northern IN tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 20z RAP going full :weenie: 3mb stronger than even the NAM at same time lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm really interested to see the 18Z NAM before jumping on the big dog bandwagon, as long as the Euro and GFS agree... This will be a small event for SE Michigan. 4-8" with winds 20-30mph gusting over 40mph isn't a small event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 off the rails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like BUF is paying heed to the 18z NAM. They left the southern tier counties as a Watch while upgrading the counties south of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWSiren.gif? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro Ensemble Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like BUF is paying heed to the 18z NAM. They left the southern tier counties as a Watch while upgrading the counties south of Lake Ontario. Just got home... almost fell out of my chair after reviewing the 18z NAM. The model discrepancy is unreal. The euro ENS have ~0.35" of QPF in and around YYZ. They have been pretty consistent with this number over the last few runs but they were also consistent for the early Jan event which the meso's handled much better inside ~48hrs(big NW shift). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 from a miss well south to sweating p type in 24hrs it's like 2007 all over Took a little longer then 24 hrs. for it to become a mad town special then I I guessed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 RGEM is pretty amazing for here, around 25mm of liquid equivalent which is almost 1.00" liquid. Maybe I will be refining upward tomorrow if these trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Just got home... almost fell out of my chair after reviewing the 18z NAM. The model discrepancy is unreal. The euro ENS have ~0.35" of QPF in and around YYZ. They have been pretty consistent with this number over the last few runs but they were also consistent for the early Jan event which the meso's handled much better inside ~48hrs(big NW shift). Obviously, the NAM is going to back down. I think that's a given. But I think the EURO may be too far south with the storm. Probably a good time to go with a compromise solution like the RGEM or GFS. Still a solid 6"+ event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Been kind of the trend this winter - south side gets the brunt of things. There must be departures in snowfall exceeding 250% down that way by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Into the file of things that never were... Would be largest Toronto snowstorm in history I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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