A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I know where I'd put my chips... the GFS, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 DTX warning area is terrible.... What model indicates a real difference between Flint and Detroit right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM is such a trash model. Shows 30 inches for Toronto. LOL 2-300 miles further north than GGEM/Euro less than 48 hours from event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Seriously though, even if the NW camp wins out, think NAM is probably overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 cold air arrives just in time for 6-7" here on the NAM...ice cold lake may actually help out I don't envy LOT right now Going to be some fun winds too. Plaster all the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 LOT... SEVERAL CHALLENGES SURROUND THIS EVENT...THE FIRST OF WHICH AREPRECIP TIMING AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THECOLD FRONT TONIGHT HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MILD WITH A RANGE FROMAROUND 40 NORTH TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. THE INITIAL AREA OF WARMADVECTION PRECIP WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THEDAY BUT THEN DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE IN THEAFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR TO ALLOW FOREVAPORATIVE COOLING TO THE POINT WHERE RAIN WOULD TRANSITION MIXEDPRECIP THEN QUICKLY TO SNOW. THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES DURINGTHE EVENING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING AS THEUPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. GIVEN THE MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT AND THEEVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS EXPECTEDDURING THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG FORCINGAND STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL TOPROVIDE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTHTHROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE IDEA OFAT LEAST LOWERED...IF NOT NEGATIVE STABILITY ABOVE THE ORGANIZEDFGEN ASCENT LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE BESTFORCING DOES MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THE0.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL BE REALIZED BUT THESIGNALS FOR BANDING/INTENSE PRECIP ARE CONCERNING. THE LOW TRACKVARIES AMONG GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEEVOLVING/PHASING BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW EXPECT TO SEE GUIDANCEFLUCTUATE FURTHER. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY HELP DICTATE HOW FAR NORTHMORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE LATEST TRENDSSHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PUTTING MORE OF THE AREA AT RISK. INTERMS OF AMOUNTS...WITH THINGS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH HAVE INCREASEDSNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE THESE MAYCHANGE FURTHER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS HINGING ON HOW QUICKLY ATRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. WITHTHE STRENGTH OF FORCING INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY WHEREBANDS FOCUS AND TURN TO SNOW. RIGHT NOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OFINTERSTATE 80 ARE FAVORED FOR THE GREATEST AMOUNTS. FAR SOUTHERNAREAS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE WILL BE TRICKY AS THEYWILL TAKE LONGEST TO CHANGE OVER AND MAY SEE REDUCED AMOUNTS AS ARESULT.HEADLINE REASONING...MANY AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY SEE AN ADVISORY LEVELEVENT BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS WHICHCOULD FALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THEREFORE DO NOT FEEL GOINGRIGHT TO AN ADVISORY IS THE BEST OPTION AT THIS POINT. AFTERCOORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WILL HOIST A WINTER STORMWATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA OR FROM PORTERSOUTHWEST TO LAKE...KANKAKEE...AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AND POINTSSOUTH. DEBATED INCLUDING AREAS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH FROM THESOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO BACK TO OTTAWA/MENDOTA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGHCONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH OF A NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH UPCOMING RUNS TO DOTHIS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL ITS A MINIMAL CONFIDENCE WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not saying the current very amped up 18z run of the NAM is right, but the last somewhat similar southwest type system to impact the area on 2/4-2/5 ended up farther northwest with good snows than the globals had been advertising and the NAM didn't do a bad job with it. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 got the answer mean up to 7" but highly skewed by the wet ARW which when removed drops to 4" which is in line with the GFS and my thinking this one is over You punted this 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 DTX warning area is terrible.... What model indicates a real difference between Flint and Detroit right now? If you looked at the euro, you wouldn't think they even issue watches north of 94. While the NAM is probably way too far NW, most people didn't believe (including me) the 18z NAM yesterday. Todays 12z NAM/GFS/RGEM all came north and looked closely identical to yesterdays 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z NAM snow map lol I wish.... amazing....I could care less for mby, but this is going to be an interesting case to see which model chokes. (euro 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not saying the current very amped up 18z run of the NAM is right, but the last somewhat similar southwest type system to impact the area on 2/4-2/5 ended up farther northwest with good snows than the globals had been advertising and the NAM didn't do a bad job with it. Sent from my SCH-I535 Higher-resolution models should have a better handling of the system compared to the globals, correct? You would think at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Higher-resolution models should have a better handling of the system compared to the globals, correct? You would think at least.. Yes, 50" for you, go gas up the snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 In all seriousness, I think the answer lies somewhere between the NAM and the Euro, probably closer to the Euro. The GFS actually is pretty close to my expectation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Spread persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z runs at 48 hours, Euro not included. One of these kids is playing its own game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Here's a question. Does anyone think the GFS is going to go any direction but north of the next run? Not just being a weenie here, I just almost expect it to follow the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yes, 50" for you, go gas up the snow blower. k. 4km nam is stronger and a tad north through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Another storm with a wide variety of solutions. Unreal. Geos turned his magnet on this morning. That must be another member in my area. Maybe Tuanis did. That better trend back south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Spread persists. That's old. Here's today's 12z at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 You punted this 2 days ago bad call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That's old. Here's today's 12z at 48 hours. 3:10 12z EC ENSM 48.gif Thanks. Conclusion the same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 bad call Never know. This could all be smoke and mirrors. I was on board for a whiff as well just based on the through positioning but the models have trended towards digging that northern stream s/w harder and hence you get the trough to amplify quicker which compensates for its poor position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 In all seriousness, I think the answer lies somewhere between the NAM and the Euro, probably closer to the Euro. The GFS actually is pretty close to my expectation right now. euro has been pretty consistent about 2 factors over the last 5 or 6 runs: 1) placement of snow axis, running from central IL thru northern OH. 2) the heaviest snow is really not that heavy, (relatively speaking, highest amounts not much more than 6" until it gets east of the subforum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looked at the Euro a bit ago again. It looks a bit strange to me how it blows up so much precip relatively close to the low. With very little in the way of banding further north deeper into the cold sector. Almost looks like convective feedback to me, with so much heavy precip pretty close to the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think 5-10" is a good call for the Detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Higher-resolution models should have a better handling of the system compared to the globals, correct? You would think at least..I don't know if I'd say better handle because it's hard to put a lot of trust in a NAM run even at this range. With that being said I think the Euro and GGEM are too far south and specifically the Euro has been too low on QPF here with some recent snow events, as pointed out by cyclone may be an issue with northern extent of cold sector qpf on Euro. The answer probably does lie in between the 2 extremes and 3-6" is more of what I'm expecting for the Chicago metro. Using the location of the upper level potential vorticity anomaly hook which has worked in other events this winter to foretell more of a northwest track of the surface low does offer that possibility here as well when looking at the 250 mb PVU surface on the 12z GFS and the 12z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 DVN throws a soaking wet blanket on the fire... TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND USING SLR/S IN THE 10TO 12:1 YIELDS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS ALLBUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That must be another member in my area. Maybe Tuanis did. I've seen enough. I'm enjoying the melt & warmer temperatures. My house is ready to be done with the snow & cold. Unfortunately my gut tells me this is coming north from what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z NAM flips to all snow at DPA between 3-6z just as heaviest precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think 5-10" is a good call for the Detroit area. I posted 4-8" on Facebook just a moment ago for friends and family. I do think there is a higher potential but there is still time to refine the forecast locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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