A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I guess 6 or 7 would get us within striking distance if the potential active end of the month works out. those couple inches are probably going to matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah it will be interesting. The NAM also gets sfc temps down to near the mid 20's during peak snow too. I don't think cement snow is a guarantee either, especially with temps between 850-925mb between -6 and -8 deg C. Also, the GFS has a fairly deep DGZ here around 9z. NAM and GFS shows the same here, I think it will start as a cement snow but transition to better ratios very quickly as the cold air continues to drop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro is a tad NW of 12z yesterday 993.8 in extreme S. IN at HR 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Maybe 1" for ORD on the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro is a tad NW of 12z yesterday 993.8 in extreme S. IN at HR 48 Euro/GFS showing little movement shows we're finally converging on a track. FWA/DTX/YYZ locked and loaded for 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 SREF/RGEM/NAM vs EURO/UKIE GFS is in-between the two pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 nice chance for the ecmwf to redeem itself after a terrible winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 nice chance for the ecmwf to redeem itself after a terrible winter It did great here up until the last event. I think it's a little too conservative though with amounts on the northern side. I think the NAM/4km NAM is overdone, but I think there could be some decent banding on the northern edges of the system tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 And Dr. No has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Maybe 1" for ORD on the 12z ECMWF. Quite a spread between that and the RPM. Almost time for some Alek ranges and customized backyard forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Quite a spread between that and the RPM. Almost time for some Alek ranges and customized backyard forecasts. DAB-5" NW to SE across LOT's cwa sounds good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 First call for here is a quick 2-4" tomorrow evening after a very brief period of light rain. I'll go with a band of 4-8" from Pontiac IL up to Adrian MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Same path as 00z run but about 2-3mb stronger. I do agree with cyclone that it is a bit cheap on the cold side precip as this is a pretty strong system with a lot of moisture to work with and good to great mid-level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Same path as 00z run but about 2-3mb stronger. I do agree with cyclone that it is a bit cheap on the cold side precip as this is a pretty strong system with a lot of moisture to work with and good to great mid-level frontogenesis. It has 0.50-1.00" QPF along and north of the SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Leave it to the RAP to be way amped. Slower and stronger 996mb across nw KS/sw NE at 9z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Part of the difference is that the EURO (like the GGEM) depicts a baggier/more E-W elongated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Leave it to the RAP to be way amped. Slower and stronger 996mb across nw KS/sw NE at 9z tomorrow. chuck'n em deep a little early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z Euro has 0.28" QPF for the GTA, about 0.02" drier than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 chuck'n em deep a little early Yep. That was the 15z run. 17z run much of the same thing. 996mb along the KS/NE border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yep. That was the 15z run. 17z run much of the same thing. 996mb along the KS/NE border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol why not. Even NW of the 18z NAM yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol why not. Even NW of the 18z NAM yesterday. if you're gonna go deep, go deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO was a bit disappointing. Has support from the GGEM too. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO was a bit disappointing. Has support from the GGEM too. Tough call. 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow will be key runs as the storm will be fully sampled by then. What does the latest SREF mean show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow will be key runs as the storm will be fully sampled by then. What does the latest SREF mean show? 10" but there's huge range so it's not very useful at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 10" but there's huge range so it's not very useful at this point. Interesting. Overall mean is in line with the latest Nam/GFS but too much spread isnt very helpful. Too early to make any preliminary calls IMO. We"ll see tonight after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0.0% 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1% +1 18z RAP even more nuts. Now taking it down to 994mb over nw KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 +1 18z RAP even more nuts. Now taking it down to 994mb over nw KS. i'm just trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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