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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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My first call for LAF is 2-4".  I don't have confidence in anything higher right now but the good news if you like snow is that I doubt we come in lower than that.

 

Others have commented on the wind potential.  To me it looks like there's some potential to satisfy one of the blizzard criteria with this (sustained or frequent gusts over 35 mph for 3 hours) and we'll see about visibility.  Going to be nasty conditions in any case.   

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<10% chance

For Chicago I agree. FWA/DET/YYZ could be in line with one of the biggest storms of the year. I do like the trends in the models today, the bigger issue locally will be the winds with the snow as most of the storms this winter didn't come with a big amount of wind.

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ILX made a subtle change in their late morning HWO.

 

6 A.M.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>055-111100-  CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-  MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-  SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-  606 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.     DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.     DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY    AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS  TUESDAY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLUSHY  WET SNOW LIKELY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.     

10:30 A.M.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>055-111100-  CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-  MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-  SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-  1034 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.     DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.     DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY    AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS  TUESDAY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLUSHY  WET SNOW LIKELY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4  INCHES FROM BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL AND CHAMPAIGN/URBANA NORTHEAST.
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My first call for LAF is 2-4".  I don't have confidence in anything higher right now but the good news if you like snow is that I doubt we come in lower than that.

 

Others have commented on the wind potential.  To me it looks like there's some potential to satisfy one of the blizzard criteria with this (sustained or frequent gusts over 35 mph for 3 hours) and we'll see about visibility.  Going to be nasty conditions in any case.   

 

It's looking like a flip to rip kind of scenario for you guys.  Difficult forecast, but I still like your area.  Jackpot may end up a bit north of you guys, but I'm thinking you'll do good. 

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My first call for LAF is 2-4".  I don't have confidence in anything higher right now but the good news if you like snow is that I doubt we come in lower than that.

 

Others have commented on the wind potential.  To me it looks like there's some potential to satisfy one of the blizzard criteria with this (sustained or frequent gusts over 35 mph for 3 hours) and we'll see about visibility.  Going to be nasty conditions in any case.   

12Z GFS looks like a solid 5 to 8 for us. Looks similar to the 0Z euro. That said, I'm thinking 3 to 5" is a good call at this point with the best being just north.

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It's looking like a flip to rip kind of scenario for you guys.  Difficult forecast, but I still like your area.  Jackpot may end up a bit north of you guys, but I'm thinking you'll do good. 

 

 

I guess I'm shy given that it's a changeover scenario.  We're living dangerously as is and can't afford any northward shifts. 

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12Z GFS looks like a solid 5 to 8 for us. Looks similar to the 0Z euro. That said, I'm thinking 3 to 5" is a good call at this point with the best being just north.

 

 

Sounds good.  I was debating over 3-5" but decided to go a little lower for now. 

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For Chicago I agree. FWA/DET/YYZ could be in line with one of the biggest storms of the year. I do like the trends in the models today, the bigger issue locally will be the winds with the snow as most of the storms this winter didn't come with a big amount of wind.

It did seem like every storm was FOLLOWED by ridiculous wind though. I have had my fill of wind, but I will take a snowstorm anyway it comes.

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Even though I want spring and warmth, I cannot pass up a good snowstorm. ^_^

 

I want snow to hang on in UP, but I can take it or leave it for here.

 

I do want the record in DTW, mainly to shut up older folks.... I can always caveat any discussion with 2013-2014 from here on out.

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And here I was thinking you were done till next season!  :D

 

... GGEM running late today?

 

Yeah, I was but a chance at 150 inches on the season is to good to pass up. I haven't hit that in a long time.

 

Yeah this page was, it recently just loaded.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=12&map=na&mod=gemglb〈=en

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It did seem like every storm was FOLLOWED by ridiculous wind though. I have had my fill of wind, but I will take a snowstorm anyway it comes.

 

Yeah afterwards it did, but this might be one of the only storms to have near blizzard conditions potentially.

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I want snow to hang on in UP, but I can take it or leave it for here.

 

I do want the record in DTW, mainly to shut up older folks.... I can always caveat any discussion with 2013-2014 from here on out.

 

You know people who were around in 1880-1881? We already are ahead of any year in recent history.

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I want snow to hang on in UP, but I can take it or leave it for here.

 

I do want the record in DTW, mainly to shut up older folks.... I can always caveat any discussion with 2013-2014 from here on out.

Whether or not we hit the record, there isnt a person alive who has seen a snowier winter in the heart of metro Detroit. This is already the snowiest winter since 1882 :lol:

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Skilling going the usual 3-7". RPM had gusts of 40-50mph from the lakeshore back to DVN overnight while snowing.

 

"Most aggressive model"

 

attachicon.gifskilling snow1.png

 

 

The gust products from the NAM are showing something similar.  It'll be interesting to see if anyone actually pulls the trigger on blizzard headlines.  I guess you could argue that blowing might not be a problem initially but that should change as temps drop.

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The gust products from the NAM are showing something similar.  It'll be interesting to see if anyone actually pulls the trigger on blizzard headlines.  I guess you could argue that blowing might not be a problem initially but that should change as temps drop.

 

Yeah it will be interesting. The NAM also gets sfc temps down to near the mid 20's during peak snow too. I don't think cement snow is a guarantee either, especially with temps between 850-925mb between -6 and -8 deg C.

 

Also, the GFS has a fairly deep DGZ here around 9z.  

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