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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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headline discussion is boring but it will be interesting to read various AFDs and see how much weight is being given to further NW shifts in guidance.

I thought you were done with snow.  Weatherbo hit is on the head with his comment that snow will always bring people back.

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...DEEP LOW CENTER/NEG-TILTED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.S.  

THROUGH THURS...  

 

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...THROUGH WED  

            00Z ECMWF...FOR THURS  

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  

 

OVERALL...THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REASONABLY LOW REGARDING THIS  

EVOLVING STORM SYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW  

A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW  

DAYS...WHICH WILL DRIVE A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SFC LOW CENTER EAST  

OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TUES AND THEN RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN NEW  

ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. THE STORM SYS SHOULD EXIT INTO SERN CANADA  

ON THURS. A WIDESPREAD AND RATHER HIGH IMPACT PCPN  

EVENT...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOC  

WITH THE EVOLVING DEEP LOW CENTER. PLS CONSULT THE LATEST QPFPFD  

AND QPFHSD FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE PCPN IMPACTS.  

 

THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL AND TO LESSER EXTENTS THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM  

ARE FASTER AND RELATIVELY WEAKER COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODEL  

CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SFC LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z  

UKMET AND NOW THE 12Z GFS ARE A BIT SLOWER. THE 12Z GFS NOT ONLY  

TRENDED SLOWER...BUT ALSO NOTABLY STRONGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.  

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TUES AND  

WED...BUT THEREAFTER THE GFS BECOMES VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS  

AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEG-TILTING TROUGH...AND SUGGESTS A STRONG  

CLOSED LOW CENTER CROSSING THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS  

WOULD APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO STRONG BY THURS AND TOO SLOW. BY  

THURS...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFF BETWEEN THE STRONGER/SLOW GFS  

AND THE FASTER/RELATIVELY WEAKER NAM/GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET. BASED  

ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND SPREAD...WILL FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF  

BLEND THROUGH WED...AND THEN LEAN TWD THE ECMWF FOR THURS.

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