cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 For us to have any real chance the storm needs to slow down considerably. Most of the models keep things pretty meh through here until things explode off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 gonna need a heck of a NW trend to get grande cheese back in the game I'm already out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The cold sector pressure gradient, for our region, is the sickest I've seen this season. At the very least, many areas should see some decent blowing/drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm going to make sure to enjoy the warmth and sunshine today, as the trend for tues/wed can't be ignored. One more step to the NW and it's almost time for Alex's siren gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 DTX must be buying into the wind already. They have sustained 20-25 on Wednesday with gusts to 35 in the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wow. If anything, the GFS is better than the NAM. It brings the 12-14" swath as far NW as Lake St. Clair in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looking more like a FWA-TOL-DTW-YYZ crush job with every run. And a good amount of cold rain for LAF. Blah. 12z Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Assuming the EURO comes on board, DTX should issue WSWs this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm already out of it. I can tell you're still holding on to a glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Assuming the EURO comes on board, DTX should issue WSWs this afternoon. Hmmm ... DTX will likely defer it to the night shift ... that is kind of there way ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Assuming the EURO comes on board, DTX should issue WSWs this afternoon. Not gonna happen.. LOL..if they do we are done..expect 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hmmm ... DTX will likely defer it to the night shift ... that is kind of there way ... And then they'll defer it to the morning shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Still need one more step NW/stronger before I weenie out, but the runs this morning have been so uplifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hmmm ... DTX will likely defer it to the night shift ... that is kind of there way ... If there's solid model consensus on 6"+ (which there would be pending the EURO), I don't see why they would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 headline discussion is boring but it will be interesting to read various AFDs and see how much weight is being given to further NW shifts in guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 After this long Winter, people "claiming" to be sick of snow are glued to this thread. The power snow has on us weenies is amazing. plus, any snow this time of year will be gone fairly quick, so why not. The CHI/N Indiana/DET storm track this season has been flawless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 headline discussion is boring but it will be interesting to read various AFDs and see how much weight is being given to further NW shifts in guidance. I thought you were done with snow. Weatherbo hit is on the head with his comment that snow will always bring people back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I thought you were done with snow. Weatherbo hit is on the head with his comment that snow will always bring people back. you and bo just have to read, i've always and repeatedly said i'm down for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z NAM text has TSPL for LAF. A nice low blow. 12z GGEM fairly consistent with its 0z run, FWIW. And naturally, my last remaining hope...the 12z JMA. Weenie model for a snow weenie. Desperate times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 you and bo just have to read, i've always and repeatedly said i'm down for a big dog. You said early in this thread tho that this was going to be a miss S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 You said early in this thread tho that this was going to be a miss S/E. still looks to be the case (also called the DTW jackpot nearly 100 hrs out)...but if it trends NW it won't be the first time I was wrong. good luck up there in Fond Du Lac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z NAM text has TSPL for LAF. A nice low blow. no one does pingers like LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 ...DEEP LOW CENTER/NEG-TILTED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THURS... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...THROUGH WED 00Z ECMWF...FOR THURS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL...THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REASONABLY LOW REGARDING THIS EVOLVING STORM SYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL DRIVE A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SFC LOW CENTER EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TUES AND THEN RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. THE STORM SYS SHOULD EXIT INTO SERN CANADA ON THURS. A WIDESPREAD AND RATHER HIGH IMPACT PCPN EVENT...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOC WITH THE EVOLVING DEEP LOW CENTER. PLS CONSULT THE LATEST QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE PCPN IMPACTS. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL AND TO LESSER EXTENTS THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM ARE FASTER AND RELATIVELY WEAKER COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SFC LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AND NOW THE 12Z GFS ARE A BIT SLOWER. THE 12Z GFS NOT ONLY TRENDED SLOWER...BUT ALSO NOTABLY STRONGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TUES AND WED...BUT THEREAFTER THE GFS BECOMES VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEG-TILTING TROUGH...AND SUGGESTS A STRONG CLOSED LOW CENTER CROSSING THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS WOULD APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO STRONG BY THURS AND TOO SLOW. BY THURS...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFF BETWEEN THE STRONGER/SLOW GFS AND THE FASTER/RELATIVELY WEAKER NAM/GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND SPREAD...WILL FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH WED...AND THEN LEAN TWD THE ECMWF FOR THURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 still looks to be the case (also called the DTW jackpot nearly 100 hrs out)...but if it trends NW it won't be the first time I was wrong. good luck up there in Fond Du Lac Fair enough, and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 you and bo just have to read, i've always and repeatedly said i'm down for a big dog. But this doesn't have big dog potential, so you're wasting your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GGEM is south of the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 But this doesn't have big dog potential, so you're wasting your time. <10% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 <10% chance 0.0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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