snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Unless I need my eyes checked...I think I see 9.9 inch SREF mean for YYZ. Very large spread though. I had to take a second look myself. Go MBN1 (28.8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Interesting that the NMB group of the SREF are going bonkers for here, they are notorious for being significantly low on every event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z NAM looks like it went back south some so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z NAM looks like it went back south some so far. And "What a surprise!!!" said no one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z NAM looks like it went back south some so far. Only out to 45 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Its barely south. It's just a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 HR 51 it has a sub 1000 L or so just a tad SW of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Only out to 45 hours? I did say so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Chicago still looks solid on the 0z NAM even with it being weaker and maybe a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Chicago still looks solid on the 0z NAM even with it being weaker and maybe a tad south. I'd call it more than a tad. 0z at 60 in central KY, 18z at 66 over Cincy. Decent shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm hearing (from some good weather forum dudes elsewhere) that the newest SREF has a mean of 6" at ORD. The range is hilarious, though. 0.02" to 11.93". Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'd call it more than a tad. 0z at 60 in central KY, 18z at 66 over Cincy. Decent shift. lol At HR 63 it's nearly on the OH/KY border. 18z HR 69 it's in S. OH It's not that huge of a difference for a NAM run 60+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 snow thru 63 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 So basically, the NAM's back to where it was on the 12z run. Just a bit more phasing/amplification happening a bit sooner for decent snows into Chicago and somewhat beefier amounts into Toledo/Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 At YYZ...went from about 2/3" QPF on the 18z run to probably 0.10" on this run. Even drier than the 12z run which was AOA 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Still gotta give the 18z NAM an "A" for effort. It certainly tried it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 As for 18z vs 00z, nam vs gfs, euro etc i encourage all to read this thread.. Very informative.. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43144-why-do-people-dismiss-6z-and-18z-model-runs/?p=2865941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol At HR 63 it's nearly on the OH/KY border. 18z HR 69 it's in S. OH It's not that huge of a difference for a NAM run 60+ hrs out. Take a look at the snowfall map. 18z had most of the 6"+ in southern MI back into NE IL barely getting into extreme N IN/OH. Now the 0z has most of the 6"+ in the northern third of IN/OH barely making it into extreme southern MI. Thats a decent jump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 18z NAM was an extreme northern outlier from the consensus. It would have been even more strange had it not corrected southward. In fact, the more I think about it, the heaviest snowfall setting up as far north as it did on the 18z NAM didn't seem right anyway given how far south the low track was (how often do Chicago and Detroit get hits that big with a surface low track from St. Louis to Cincinnati?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Take a look at the snowfall map. 18z had most of the 6"+ in southern MI back into NE IL barely getting into extreme N IN/OH. Now the 0z has most of the 6"+ in the northern third of IN/OH barely making it into extreme southern MI. Thats a decent jump south. NAM has 6"+ in the bottom 2 rows of counties in MI. I wouldnt call that "barely making it into extreme southern MI". Regardless, some of the latest SREFs were ridiculously far north (99% chance they are wrong) but it is nice to see the consensus decidedly north of where it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS has 4.6 in my forecast. Awfully optimistic if you ask me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 In fact, the more I think about it, the heaviest snowfall setting up as far north as it did on the 18z NAM didn't seem right anyway given how far south the low track was (how often do Chicago and Detroit get hits that big with a surface low track from St. Louis to Cincinnati?). A SLP track from MKC to STL to CVG would be good for Chicago, as the 850mb low would end up tracking near a UIN to LAF line. Obviously the best snows would be in shorter duration though, as there is no cut to the NW. All of the aforementioned occured in the 18z NAM...Thus the big run up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS has 4.6 in my forecast. Awfully optimistic if you ask me... I think that looks pretty reasonable at this point all things considered. One thing I like about this setup is that temps are progged to drop below freezing pretty fast...or a better way of saying it is that we don't hang up around 31-32 degrees very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 snow thru 63 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063 NAM showing Cyclone some love! It's really close though. 40% chance of anything here in my grid right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wow another 6" moves Toledo to about 83" on the year. Haha hopefully I don't have to shovel the driveway when I get back from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 0z GFS similar to the 18z run...Maybe a tad south/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hopefully we will begin to form a consensus with tonight's 00z runs and the GGEM/EURO don't pull a NAM. I say end the misery now with all of these erratic shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hopefully we will begin to form a consensus with tonight's 00z runs and the GGEM/EURO don't pull a NAM. I say end the misery now with all of these erratic shifts. agree x1000. I'll be alright with missing this storm but enough with the teasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 agree x1000. I'll be alright with missing this storm but enough with the teasing. .Storm after storm. This is getting old lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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