snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Given the GFS shift to the SE we're likely dealing with typical 18z NAM shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Also, it's likely overdone and this is just for ****s and giggles, but the NAM text output for DET shows several hours of sustained winds around 25 MPH. Well overdone in the sense that it is the NAM, but if a solution were to end up that phased and strong you would have a corresponding reaction with the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Given the GFS shift to the SE we're likely dealing with typical 18z NAM shenanigans. What does the latest SREF mean depict? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Given the GFS shift to the SE we're likely dealing with typical 18z NAM shenanigans. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well overdone in the sense that it is the NAM, but if a solution were to end up that phased and strong you would have a corresponding reaction with the wind field. The gradient in itself between the high to the north and the low to the north is nothing to scoff at (even with the less phased/weaker solutions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 RGEM colored map: Looks a tad NE of the GFS at the same timeframe and a tad SE of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 What does the latest SREF mean depict? I believe about 2.5" for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well overdone in the sense that it is the NAM, but if a solution were to end up that phased and strong you would have a corresponding reaction with the wind field. Exactly. The NAM is showing what would/could happen in with phased solution. That is all you can take from this model run. We will continue to see several other possible scenarios (as we have seen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Definitely more concerned about this coming too far north and resulting delayed changeover issues here than missing south. Though I'm not going to sweat the NAM too much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Given the GFS shift to the SE we're likely dealing with typical 18z NAM shenanigans. Considering it's track record this winter the GFS has as much chance of being garbage as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Considering it's track record this winter the GFS has as much chance of being garbage as the NAM. Far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Considering it's track record this winter the GFS has as much chance of being garbage as the NAM. But it's the GFS and the world vs. the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the NAM was laughably far NW up to the last minute with the event a week or two back. GFS has been a rock star all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the NAM was laughably far NW up to the last minute with the event a week or two back. GFS has been a rock star all winter. Let's not exaggerate. It's had its problems too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Far from it. Depends i guess a bit on where we are talking as well. Jan 5th GFS failed miserably ( was way to weak till 36hrs or so out ) as well as that system a week or so ago here for starters. Every model today has trended upwards/stronger further nw but this one which has taken a nice step back. You think that is believable? But it's the GFS and the world vs. the NAM. What we have is the NAM on one end and the GFS now on the other. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle especially if you take the ensembles into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GFS has not been great all winter. Not even close. NAM/EURO have been awful as well for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Let's not exaggerate. It's had its problems too. I mean really. I cannot believe we are even having to debate this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 What we have is the NAM on one end and the GFS now on the other. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle especially if you take the ensembles into consideration. Actually, the OP EURO (excluding last night's 00z run), UKMET and GGEM show a solution similar to the 18z GFS, maybe even a bit further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Let's throw out all of the models...and then everyone can give their best guess. Grande cheese is up first. We'll start the bidding with 6-10" for Fond du Lac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 All of the models have been crap this season. Never have I seen a season where they were this crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Personally i am not ready to buy into/discount anything yet. If i was forced to take a stab at it i think LAF/TOL zone looks solid. Just stating the models have all had their ****ty moments this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Personally i am not ready to buy into/discount anything yet. If i was forced to take a stab at it i think LAF/TOL zone looks solid. Just stating the models have all had their ****ty moments this winter. Agreed. Maybe even CLE. I still think Chicago and Detroit, regardless, are good for 1-4" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Depends i guess a bit on where we are talking as well. Jan 5th GFS failed miserably ( was way to weak till 36hrs or so out ) as well as that system a week or so ago here for starters. Every model today has trended upwards/stronger further nw but this one which has taken a nice step back. You think that is believable? My comment was more towards that you were making it sound like the GFS is on the NAM level. Has it had some down periods, yes...But overall since October the GFS has more under its belt than any other piece of guidance. And yes I think that SE/weak run is possible. At this point I'd say DAB at ORD is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Personally i am not ready to buy into/discount anything yet. If i was forced to take a stab at it i think LAF/TOL zone looks solid. Just stating the models have all had their ****ty moments this winter. Agreed. Maybe even CLE. I still think Chicago and Detroit, regardless, are good for 1-4" at least. I second these. SPI to LAF, on up to TOL looking solid IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Models show the various potentials. That is all I use them for. As the players get on the field and start organizing then we get a much better picture of how things are going to play out. Heck even then there are many storms that it doesn't clear up until the game is over. Each model this winter has had OK, Good, Great, Stinky and full of $h!T runs. They all do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Not sold on a hit here. Changeover timing might be ugly. Further north of here, I like the better chances. For the heck of it...compare/contrast the 12z Euro and its ensemble mean at 72 hours. Pretty solid agreement, but looks like there's still some "left of the mean" tracks. 12z op 12z ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm not seeing anything to suggest a phase early enough for the main low to cut far enough NW for a MSN special...could happen but it's one of the lower probability solutions on the table. Northern stream may do some work over WI but IMO any shot at a ripping defo band will be further SE where phase timing looks more favorable (obv lower than usual confidence given the cutoff). I'd favor IND-DTW-YYZ for the time being. this still sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Models show the various potentials. That is all I use them for. As the players get on the field and start organizing then we get a much better picture of how things are going to play out. Heck even then there are many storms that it doesn't clear up until the game is over. Each model this winter has had OK, Good, Great, Stinky and full of $h!T runs. They all do. To be honest though, this is the first season I can recall most of us nail biting over whether or not we're getting a significant snowstorm, rainstorm or whiffed right up to the start time with every system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 My comment was more towards that you were making it sound like the GFS is on the NAM level. Has it had some down periods, yes...But overall since October the GFS has more under its belt than any other piece of guidance. And yes I think that SE/weak run is possible. At this point I'd say DAB at ORD is the way to go. Lately, since early February the GFS has had some big misses in both directions. Remember how many GFS runs in a row we had with that last system showing a foot plus, didn't verify too well. Early winter the GFS was pretty good but it has fallen back in the pack since. Honestly I have no definitive pick right now as I have been out of town for the last 2 days so I am still catching up on the models from then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 NAM is the best. It always shows the most snow for MBY so I like that model the most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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