Geos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 lol NAM Classic NAM outside of 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Through hr 84 the euro EPS mean is way NW of the OP. Its likely going to bring the 0.5" QPF line north of YYZ. What would that translate into in terms of snowfall? It's looking like this could be an all day Wednesday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 How'd the EURO ensembles end up looking? Well into the 1/2" isohyet? The 0.5" QPF line hugs YTZ. Looks like 0.4-0.5" in the city with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well at least the NAM managed to pull through with one weenie run. Back to reality now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Lock in the 18z NAM please. 12" bullseye over myself, Harry and Alek. How much do I have to pay to get one of these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 By this time tommorow it'll be a Mad Town special. It is March. if the gfs can come north again maybe we're in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 0.5" QPF line hugs YTZ. Looks like 0.4-0.5" in the city with good ratios. We could possibly see some decent deformation bands forming as well. Ratios look to be around 12:1 with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Curtains for here. Good luck to ORD-DTW-YYZ!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 How much do I have to pay to get one of these? Very likely it's not for sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 0.5" QPF line hugs YTZ. Looks like 0.4-0.5" in the city with good ratios. All the models seem to be indicating good ratios. NAM looks like about 0.60-0.65" QPF but the snowmaps bring the foot mark right up to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Curtains for here. Good luck to ORD-DTW-YYZ!!! Meh, it is the 18z NAM. Unless the other models come on board (doubtful), you guys are still in a more solid position than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Curtains for here. Good luck to ORD-DTW-YYZ!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 FWIW, my NWS grid now reflects 2-4" for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Curtains for here. Good luck to ORD-DTW-YYZ!!! The foreign models are still on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 All the models seem to be indicating good ratios. NAM looks like about 0.60-0.65" QPF but the snowmaps bring the foot mark right up to Toronto. Yep. Will take a look at some BUFKIT profiles when they become available. Instantwx's kuchero method showing ~12" amounts is probably indicative of those high omega values intersecting the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 But if it does eventually turn to crap here, it'd be nice to see YYZ get a real good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 A handful of SREF members have moved to the more phased camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Not sure if it was posted, but DTX highlighted the potential in their AFD a little bit ago:THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS THEN CONTINGENT ONTHE PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OFCENTRAL CANADA AND THE TROUGH/WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.12Z MODELS ALL CONVERGING ON A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TRACKING ALONGOR CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER TO JUST SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH...A FAVORABLETRACK FOR SNOW NEAR THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER. THE TEMPGRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE IS IMPRESSIVE...WITH SURGE OF ARCTIC AIRUNDER THE LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW DURING WEDNESDAY...AS925/850 MB TEMPS CRASH INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. 850-700 MBSPECIFIC HUMIDITY TUESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 3-3.5 G/KG ALONG AND SOUTHOF M-59 CORRIDOR...AND WITH INTENSE LIFT/DEFORMATION/FGEN FOR 6HOURS...A SWATH OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OHIOBORDER...BEFORE THE LOW RACES TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE LEAD 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO...AND IFAND WHEN IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM...ASTHIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TAKE WITH IT MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICOMOISTURE. 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET BOTH SUGGEST BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL MISSUS JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE 12Z EURO CAME IN WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTHOF THE OHIO RIVER...AND RIGHT KNOW THINKING AROUND 1 INCH BETWEENM-59/I-69 CORRIDORS...WITH AROUND 4 INCHES TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.THIS IS A SENSITIVE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE DRYARCTIC AIR FUNNELING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND WITH LAKEHURON MOSTLY ICED OVER...CAN`T COUNT ON MUCH LAKE EFFECTCONTRIBUTION/MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS...AND THUS CONFIDENCE ISAVERAGE AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 As an example the greatest omega values at this point(AOB -0.7) are between ~560-700mb, which is right in the core of the DGZ. This screams decent ratios even with the gusty conditions across the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 My early call is 15" to 25" for Detroit.... ***subject due to change*** lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 My early call is 15" to 25" for Detroit.... ***subject due to change*** lol +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM would probably be a best case scenario for this area. Even that only shows a 2-4" type of snow. Really not expecting much here. Looking good for areas further east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 would love to see this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM total QPF is only 0.77" for DET. It's impressive in March that 0.77" translates to 12-13" on the NAM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GFS coming in a tad SE/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 FWIW, my NWS grid now reflects 2-4" for this system. This is a good starting point for this event, gives the position to go up or down depending upon trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z rgem hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 would love to see this happen Pure model porn. Really amazing stuff, although it is the NAM so it will back off some, but this does show the potential it has with a phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Also, it's likely overdone and this is just for ****s and giggles, but the NAM text output for DET shows several hours of sustained winds around 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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