Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 America vs. World... We've seen this before. Edit: SREF look like to mostly be in the foreign camp though Too bad it's no longer 1945, 1815 or 1918... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Anyone see the am AFD from GRR? LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014I AM BECOMING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTOEARLY WEDNESDAY GIVING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF OUR CWA 2 TO 4INCHES OF WET SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THESYSTEM ON THE LATEST (09/00Z) RUNS. FOR NOW I WILL REMAINCONSERVATIVE BUT WILL STILL INCREASE POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTHE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT (TUESDAY NIGHTINTO EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED BYTHEN. BEYOND THAT THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE INTO THE NEXTWEEKEND. IT WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WED INTO THURSDAY WITH AWARMING TREND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONTCOMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY (DRY EVENT AT THIS POINT).WHAT WE HAVE THREE JET STREAMS TRYING TO MERGE IN THE TUESDAY TOWEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE THE ARCTIC STREAM OF AIR OVER NORTHEASTCANADA SENDING A SHORTWAVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. NEXT IS THE MAINBRANCH OF THE POLAR JET SENDING A PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVE OVER THEWESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FINALLY THERE IS A SOUTHERNSTREAM SYSTEM (CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THISMORNING) THAT GETS PICKUP UP BY THE DIGGING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. SINCETHE SYSTEM WILL JUST BE COMING TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE INTHE DEVELOPING PHASE AND SHOULD BE DECENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Anyone see the am AFD from GRR? Yes, I saw that. Really, it's all just a matter of... 1. Getting a favorable track. 2. Getting the system to deepen at a favorable pace in time. The former is going to be easier said than done (unless we can get an Indianapolis to Cleveland track). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Anyone see the am AFD from GRR? seems like a pretty basic description, what exactly is the weenie part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yes, I saw that. Really, it's all just a matter of... 1. Getting a favorable track. 2. Getting the system to deepen at a favorable pace in time. The former is going to be harder said than done (unless we can get an Indianapolis to Cleveland track). All about timing. At this point i don't think anything is off the table just yet. You guys just to the south and east obviously have a better shot for something very decent but yeah i don't think further nw ( of here even ) is off the table yet especially if this thing phases like that a bit sooner which is very possible still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 seems like a pretty basic description, what exactly is the weenie part? Triple phaser potential, in so many words. With the SE ridge being virtually non-existent, any triple phase (if it happens) more than likely won't happen soon enough to benefit most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 seems like a pretty basic description, what exactly is the weenie part? 3 jets coming together? You know about Jan 78/March 93 correct? Not saying that will happen either and thus the weenie icon. That is for the potential of it being suggested in that AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 3 jets coming together? You know about Jan 78/March 93 correct? Not saying that will happen either and thus the weenie icon. That is for the potential of it being suggested. 3 jets try to come together all the time...they don't give any indication it's a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 3 jets coming together? You know about Jan 78/March 93 correct? Not saying that will happen either and thus the weenie icon. That is for the potential of it being suggested in that AFD. The latest AFD backed off on the 3 jets coming together aspect, but it's still somewhat bullish on some decent snows at least making it NW to the I-94 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The latest AFD backed off on the 3 jets coming together aspect, but it's still somewhat bullish on some decent snows at least making it NW to the I-94 corridor. Oh i knew it would back off from that. Much of it has to do with the forecaster who was on this morning. He tends to go and or offer the more extreme possibilities such as that ( unlike most others at this office ) and thus how i knew ( now others will as well..Thus the weenie icon.. I thought a few knew this about him? Guess not. ) what he was getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Oh i knew it would back off from that. Much of it has to do with the forecaster who was on this morning. He tends to go and or offer the more extreme possibilities such as that ( unlike most others at this office ) and thus how i knew ( now others will as well..Thus the weenie icon.. I thought a few knew this about him? Guess not. ) what he was getting at. Oh I understand. But the problem with forecasters mentioning those extreme possibilities and going into too much detail over them is that the general public may somehow get wind of it, and then when the extreme possibilities don't happen, it's hell on earth for the forecasters. That's why most of the tend to steer away from doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Oh I understand. But the problem with forecasters mentioning those extreme possibilities and going into too much detail over them is that the general public may somehow get wind of it, and then when the extreme possibilities don't happen, it's hell on earth for the forecasters. That's why most of the tend to steer away from doing so. I don't think most of the general public will understand that at all or even those who are not familiar with this guy. The media is the ones to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't think most of the general public will understand that at all or even those who are not familiar with this guy. The media is the ones to worry about. Yeah, but then you have those folks (like that idiot back during the February 5th storm suggesting an historic 30" blizzard) who will read those types of NWS discussions and see the model solutions, then broadcast said extreme possibilities for the general public to hear/see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Through hr 84 the euro EPS mean is way NW of the OP. Its likely going to bring the 0.5" QPF line north of YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah, but then you have those folks (like that idiot back during the February 5th storm suggesting an historic 30" blizzard) who will read those types of NWS discussions and see the model solutions, then broadcast said extreme possibilities for the general public to hear/see. If people are that stupid to buy into such hype from a no name then they get what is coming to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM may go NW 996 W of KC vs sub 1000 on the OK/KS line at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM may go NW 996 W of KC vs sub 1000 on the OK/KS line at 12z. The ridge across the West looks a bit flatter as well. Otherwise, early indications point towards a more NW track but lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If people are that stupid to buy into such hype from a no name then they get what is coming to them. I completely agree with what you're saying in theory. But we've both seen otherwise in actuality. For example, these are the same folks who will see a forecast for a 40% chance of rain, expect it to rain, and then when it doesn't rain, blame the weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM may go NW 996 W of KC vs sub 1000 on the OK/KS line at 12z. Far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Here she comes.... definitely coming NW. Heavy snow into the chicago metro by hr 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Northern stream dropping in from Canada is farther west...Better and earlier phasing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nam <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 6-12 from N/C IL ENE into most of southern Michigan. Looks like 8-10 for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Here she comes.... definitely coming NW. Heavy snow into the chicago metro by hr 63. How'd the EURO ensembles end up looking? Well into the 1/2" isohyet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Lock in the 18z NAM please. 12" bullseye over myself, Harry and Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 lol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was hoping for at least a weenie run or two from the NAM, but that obviously isn't going to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 lollollollol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 lol NAM By this time tommorow it'll be a Mad Town special. It is March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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