snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:29 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Would be largest Toronto snowstorm in history I think. Yeah, easily. NAM shows at least one virtual historic snowstorm per year for Toronto by my count. Still waiting for my 2 feet from December 26, 2012 and Feb 8, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:31 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, easily. NAM shows at least one virtual historic snowstorm per year for Toronto by my count. Still waiting for my 2 feet from December 26, 2012 and Feb 8, 2013. 3rd times a charm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:32 PM, BuffaloWeather said: 3rd times a charm? No. Enjoy your dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 My guess is the 18z GFS either stands pat or slight northward tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:33 PM, snowstormcanuck said: My guess is the 18z GFS either stands pat or slight northward tick. I'd bet on the latter of the two and probably a tick stronger would be a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm thinking the RGEM has a pretty good handle. NAM is obviously high on totals but for the Golden Horseshoe especially Niagara...>20cm seems possible in areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:33 PM, snowstormcanuck said: My guess is the 18z GFS either stands pat or slight northward tick. South and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:33 PM, snowstormcanuck said: No. Enjoy your dumping. I've had enough, you can have this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:37 PM, Radioman said: South and weaker lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:37 PM, Radioman said: South and weaker Incorrect, it is exactly the same as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 gfs pumps the brakes moneyman special cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z GFS. 998mb low over Springfield, MO at 30 hours. 998 mb near LOU at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:39 PM, Stebo said: Incorrect, it is exactly the same as the 12z run. It's faster, same strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Madtown special, I think not, turned my magnets off for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:39 PM, Stebo said: Incorrect, it is exactly the same as the 12z run. Until it hits the OV region, where's it's a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 differences between the globals and short-range guidance become large by just 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:41 PM, Chicago Storm said: Until it hits the OV region, where's it's a tad south. Yeah it is a hair south and a hair faster once it gets to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS may have backed off a tad in the QPF department but ratios are better. Still going to be an 8-10" hit for YYZ it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:42 PM, Stebo said: Yeah it is a hair south and a hair faster once it gets to Ohio. Uhg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:42 PM, Stebo said: Yeah it is a hair south and a hair faster once it gets to Ohio. Got any insight as to how the s/w looks on WV? Stronger/weaker - south/north of where models are progging it. Cause right now I got no clue which camp is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 RAP has it down to 994 at 09z while GFS is like 998/999 ish at the same timeframe. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS is very close to the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:46 PM, Radioman said: RAP has it down to 994 at 09z while GFS is like 998/999 ish at the same timeframe. Big difference. smart money says the RAP slowly but surely comes in less deep...as happens 99% of the time at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18Z GFS Snow Map, goes a bit south of 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Models lack of agreement is hilarious. I am actually comfortable though as we seem to be in an excellent consensus spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Likely already mentioned but the 13+ inch mean on the 15z SREF at YYZ is quite impressive...large spread still though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hope all will indulge me in some straw grasping... There might be a small convective feedback issue with the GFS at 36 over srn Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:47 PM, A-L-E-K said: smart money says the RAP slowly but surely comes in less deep...as happens 99% of the time at this range. Probably 99% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:48 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Hope all will indulge me in some straw grasping... There might be a small convective feedback issue with the GFS at 36 over srn Indiana. you could tell by hr 12 the GFS wouldn't play ball with the NAM idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:44 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Got any insight as to how the s/w looks on WV? Stronger/weaker - south/north of where models are progging it. Cause right now I got no clue which camp is closer to reality. RAP is too strong with the surface low currently NAM and GFS are pretty much on target. NAM might be a hair north of where the low should be, but nothing significant stands out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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