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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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  On 3/10/2014 at 1:33 PM, pondo1000 said:

Yeah...majority of the ABC 7 mets kinda go run-to-run. I've seen them throw up NAM runs 48+ hours out several times this year.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 2:35 PM, A-L-E-K said:

The NAM has been up and down but we're getting close to its more usefull range and the last time it was far NW it was an extreme outlier on the SREF guidance which isn't the case this time. I'd be skeptical but I don't see any reason to punt it.

There's no reason to punt any solution, but (excluding the 06z GFS) unless the other models join its camp, it's hard to take what it shows seriously as well.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 2:38 PM, Powerball said:

There's no reason to punt any solution, but (excluding the 06z GFS) unless the other models join its camp, it's hard to take what it shows seriously as well.

 

 

i'd punt anything too far north (solutions that are just rain for Detroit for example)...the globals might be south but they won't be that far south.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 2:54 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Will the 12z GFS manage to string together 2 runs in one direction without constant baby step wobbles north and south?

 

I'd bet the GFS nudges north again following the lead of the 6z run. With most of the s/w onshore I'm thinking now is when the models are going to lock in to a solution.

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