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3/6-3/7 Last Hurrah Obs


Hvward

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It almost looks like snow is mixing in, but that almost can't be right.  It's probably just huge ice pellets.  Quite large and falling a little slower than the rest, though.

 

Rates have mostly been moderate here so far. EDIT: Well, now it's picking up some.

 

EDIT: Seriously, some on in the GSO area look.  I swear that looks like snow flakes mixed in, but I don't see how temperatures support this?  I might be hallucinating.

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mcd0174.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

   VALID 070537Z - 070930Z

   SUMMARY...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
   SRN VA AND CNTRL NC INTO THE EARLY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF
   UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. A CHANGEOVER TO
   ALL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITHIN THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT IN SRN GA
   AND SRN SC WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE
   SRN APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS SRN VA...NC AND NRN SC. THIS
   PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH DAYBREAK. SFC TEMPS IN SRN
   VA AND CNTRL NC ARE NEAR FREEZING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
   SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER FROM 900 TO 800 MB. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
   FREEZING RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32 F EARLY THIS
   MORNING. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS SFC TEMPS INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING IN PARTS
   OF THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS... A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
   CAN BE EXPECTED.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/07/2014
 

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Ok thanks.

 

Would you think it be possible for the column to start cooling more switch back to snow since the greastest warm bubble according to spc is on the retreat?

 

Still alot of mixing with sleet. The flakes are getting bigger slowly.  Standing out side you can feel the heavy rates do the job of dragging down colder air through the warm layer. Each burst it seems like it gets colder.

Definitely more snow and the temp here is down to 28.9.

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It almost looks like snow is mixing in, but that almost can't be right.  It's probably just huge ice pellets.  Quite large and falling a little slower than the rest, though.

 

Rates have mostly been moderate here so far. EDIT: Well, now it's picking up some.

 

EDIT: Seriously, some on in the GSO area look.  I swear that looks like snow flakes mixed in, but I don't see how temperatures support this?

It be snow flakes

 

It is 50/50 mix of sleet and actual flakes here and doing what you said. They're falling slower than the sleet. Its cooling off the 850 temp level underneath that band for actual flakes to reach

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We had thundersnow here just about 20 minutes ago. It is absolutely pounding out there. Covered the roads in about 5 minutes.

 

That ULL is closed off. So you're probably under its influence aloft. Hopefully that will keep the band going through the middle of the state and help cool off the atmosphere to mix out this sleet into a heavy wet paste snow.

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Cool, thanks.  Maybe we do have a fighting chance at changing over to snow tonight, as RAH said.  Cool.  They mentioned the main threat being under the mid-level deformation band after 06z (1 AM EST).

 

I'm thinking we may avert a major ice storm, at least (though we probably already have a couple tenths of accretion).  Looks like the ZR has been extinguished in the immediate Greensboro area for now (not sure how long that will hold).

 

The road out front is now pretty much covered and more snow is mixing in.  We need a reverse bust.  It's been awhile.

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That heavier precip moving through hp/gso is definitely bringing the snow with it. Must be mixing out the warm nose aloft quickly. Snow line on radar almost down to kvegas/ walkertown/ gso / burlington as this band pushes north. Definitely more snow mixing in now.

 

 

It's really teasing us now.....if it can just get down here and get going....we could have a nice pop

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One thing I've noticed is the snow doesn't look very wet at all and the flakes are VERY fine. I was expecting more of the larger, wet-type flakes with this.

 

Thats because you are on the northern fridge of the deformation band where it will still take some time for the low-level column to moisten up to allow those big fat dendrites. Until then, most of your snow has partially evaporated and you need the full column to saturate before you can gets those bigger flakes.

 

 

It almost looks like snow is mixing in, but that almost can't be right.  It's probably just huge ice pellets.  Quite large and falling a little slower than the rest, though.

 

Rates have mostly been moderate here so far. EDIT: Well, now it's picking up some.

 

EDIT: Seriously, some on in the GSO area look.  I swear that looks like snow flakes mixed in, but I don't see how temperatures support this?  I might be hallucinating.

 

Certainly possible given that GSO is in the very high (40+ dBz) band right now. You can actually see the notch of higher CC representative of more snow vs. sleet mixing in over this region.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.RAX.N0C.20140307.613.024ani.gifcodnexlab.NEXRAD.RAX.N0C.20140307.613.02

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