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3/6-3/7 Last Hurrah Obs


Hvward

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Not sure if the upper levels are finally starting to cool off or just because the strenght of this band. Or possibly changing back over with one scenario RAH mention.

 

But there is better well defined flakes mixing in with this sleet.

 

Edit: Yeah a 50/50 mix of sleet and actual flakes.

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You can see how this very intense band moving northward through NC is trying to bring mixing down to Raleigh. it looks like it won't quite make it though, given that the heaviest precip is now north:

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.RAX.N0C.20140307.449.04

 

Not surprised to hear about the thundersleet reports... very favorable setup with widespread EPV along strong 850-700 hPa frontogenesis.

 

epvl.gif?1394168170474

epvm.gif?1394168229224

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Not sure if the upper levels are finally starting to cool off or just because the strenght of this band. Or possibly changing back over with one scenario RAH mention.

 

But there is better well defined flakes mixing in with this sleet.

 

Probably how heavy the moisture is.  850 line is still up in Virginia, though 925's are plenty cold.

 

850mb_sf.gif?1394168219154

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It looks to be 100% IP here now.  It's pretty heavy, too (not sure if it's truly "heavy"... I don't know how to judge IP rates, LOL).  The deathband is at my door.  We should get hammered overnight with the deformation band eventually setting up shop here.

 

The driveway and portions of the untreated neighborhood road now have a slushy-icy coating on them.

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Probably how heavy the moisture is.  850 line is still up in Virginia, though 925's are plenty cold.

 

03z sounding in Asheville, NC shows this is a tad too warm over the WNC mountains. Warm nose is 0.85C at 812 hPa. Probably wet snow in Asheville based on the sounding and this is before the heavier stuff starts to move in, so there is a decent chance they will stay nearly isothermal for a while. 

 

sempe1314_iop5_snd02.png

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Phil 

 

Anyword about the sounding out of Asheville. Has the warmnose fully gotten to them or is on the retreat back east.

 

Haha I'm not in contact with my colleagues in Asheville but based on the last sounding and CC they are probably getting a rain/snow mix right now (since the warm nose is very shallow at only 0.8 degrees C. Again they are also in the lighter rates, so they may go truly isothermal when the heavier band moves overhead. 

 

Edit: Talked with a few people... they are all rain right now in Asheville proper. 

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I'm sure the roads are a disaster here in person and granville countys. Esp rural roads like 96.

OT: I think I know where about you stay in Virgilina. You stay between the bridge/car wash to the store in the country by the dirt road. There is another road with a ballpark/field near by.

Just south of that...Aaron's creek Bridge...big open field across the street...jus up from the BP station...

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Haha I'm not in contact with my colleagues in Asheville but based on the last sounding and CC they are probably getting a rain/snow mix right now (since the warm nose is very shallow at only 0.8 degrees C. Again they are also in the lighter rates, so they may go truly isothermal when the heavier band moves overhead. 

Ok thanks.

 

Would you think it be possible for the column to start cooling more switch back to snow since the greastest warm bubble according to spc is on the retreat?

 

 

 

 

Still alot of mixing with sleet. The flakes are getting bigger slowly.  Standing out side you can feel the heavy rates do the job of dragging down colder air through the warm layer. Each burst it seems like it gets colder.

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