NC_WX10 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Things seem to be mostly progressing as modeled from what I can tell, to be honest. I guess you cannot count it out if we get rates, but otherwise, I'd think so. I guess we can pray the ULL is magical tomorrow. Let's hope sleet is the predominant P-type because this ZR is starting to get nasty. Radar is juicy. I haven't had any freexing rain yet. I've been all snow or sleet. Sleet is accumulating pretty well right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Will lose power here no doubt am northeast of GReensboro now winds 20-25 mph 30.6 for temp for northern guilford this might be Dec 2002 again already 0.1 ice Yep, that might put us over the top. The wind is pretty strong. EDIT: Read Pack's posting of the latest RAH AFD just issued in the main thread. They seem to favor a change back to snow during the heavier precip in the warned areas (i.e. Greensboro & Winston-Salem) with snowfall accumulations of a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Absolutely blowing and pouring out right now. Reminds me of some of the good old fashioned Nor'easters I grew up with over in Kill Devil Hills. Still hanging at 34/34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 That's our only savior a change to ip or snow during this event now a mixture of ip and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 CAD is a total bust here in dahlonega. At 640 I was down to almost 34. At 10p I've risen to 41. Awesome!!! Had about 20-30 min of sleet in the beginning and that's been it for frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sleet-tastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Precip has really gone very light currently. It was sleet/rain earlier but now just seems like a light drizzle. Temp where im at shows 33.1, so.. a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 CAD is a total bust here in dahlonega. At 640 I was down to almost 34. At 10p I've risen to 41. Awesome!!! Had about 20-30 min of sleet in the beginning and that's been it for frozen. same here - after getting my hopes up when the temp slipped below freezing ma nature slapped n ga again. 34 and a driving rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Glad someone else noticed this. Just posted about it, we'll see over the next hour if this trends in some posters favor or not Showing up on radar scope precip depiction also Totally bogus... I don't know what they use for their precip detection, but its quite clearly wrong given the CC shows a sizeable red radius (of rain) over the GSP radar. The rain/mix line is all the way up banked against the WNC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 sleet, snow, and freezing rain mix ... wind is howling .. 29.8 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Lol @ wunderground's new forecast for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Moderate sleet now, mixed with freezing rain. 30.7. Howling wind. The Nor'easter reigns the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yep, that might put us over the top. The wind is pretty strong. EDIT: Read Pack's posting of the latest RAH AFD just issued in the main thread. They seem to favor a change back to snow during the heavier precip in the warned areas (i.e. Greensboro & Winston-Salem) with snowfall accumulations of a few inches. They did mention "several" plausible solutions, that being one of them. As much as I would like to see it switch back to snow, I think ZR will be what is remembered about this storm when all said and done. I think triad is ground zero for the ZR hammer tonight. Winds really picking up now as AFD pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I may be hallucinating, but when the precip picks up I can see some mostly melted snow mixing in slightly. Current temp 32.4. Still dropping slightly and getting ever closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roddy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Central Cabarrus, may need to build an ark so we don't drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Very light snow just started. 32/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 They did mention "several" plausible solutions, that being one of them. As much as I would like to see it switch back to snow, I think ZR will be what is remembered about this storm when all said and done. I think triad is ground zero for the ZR hammer tonight. Winds really picking up now as AFD pointed out. They're most likely solution was 2-3" of snow. They also mentioned that it is possible that we get all freezing rain, which would be a devastating ice storm. They're other scenario was the deformation band setting up and being all-snow, which would drop 6"+. AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR. CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3 INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY FOR NOW. Are they right? I don't know, but they sure as hell know more than I do. ---- As a side note, if we do stay as freezing rain, this very well may be the worst ice storm in at least 15 years (maybe a lot longer). December 2002 had ice accrual of "only" around 1/2" in these parts due to significant mixing with SN/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I may be hallucinating, but when the precip picks up I can see some mostly melted snow mixing in slightly. Current temp 32.4. Still dropping slightly and getting ever closer! Probably hallucinating per the CC Another good resource to watch tonight are the UNCA soundings (from Asheville, NC). If you see any evidence of a warm nose here right on the spine of the Appalachians, there is no hope for folks further south and east to get into the snow. The 00z sounding was isothermal from 900-800 hPa so no warm nose here (yet). Keep an eye on it though. http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Very light snow just started. 32/24Where are you located roughly.We had heavy wet snow early ,in NW Surry Co., on maybe 1/2 in but not sleet.Just wondering if this will go back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Northern Foothills Snowman, on 06 Mar 2014 - 10:27 PM, said:Where are you located roughly.We had heavy wet snow early ,in NW Surry Co., on maybe 1/2 in but not sleet.Just wondering if this will go back to snow? I'm up in Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yeah I've been keeping an eye on the CC which is why I was surprised to see what I did. It only happens when the rates intensify and winds pick up. Its def liquid but it has the look of melted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 They're most likely solution was 2-3" of snow. They also mentioned that it is possible that we get all freezing rain, which would be a devastating ice storm. They're other scenario was the deformation band setting up and being all-snow, which would drop 6"+. AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR. CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3 INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY FOR NOW. Are they right? I don't know, but they sure as hell know more than I do. ---- As a side note, if we do stay as freezing rain, this very well may be the worst ice storm in at least 15 years (maybe a lot longer). December 2002 had ice accrual of "only" around 1/2" in these parts due to significant mixing with SN/IP. Agree, this has the earmarks of being really really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 sleet/some ZR for the last few hours. doubt we go back over to snow now! stuck at 31.2 last 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Pinging some now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Moderate sleet and freezing rain. Ice is accruing on many surfaces now. Some sleet accumulation as well. 30.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Agree, this has the earmarks of being really really bad. Agree, this has the earmarks of being really really bad. I'm surprised RAH hasn't changed us to a WSW. The picture was taken at 9pm... We are at 30.3F and more than a glaze of ice and snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 What's odd is my updated forecast from RAH has all freezing/frozen through noon tomorrow and snow/sleet accumulation of 1-2". Don't see it but ill take it. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GSO reporting a thunderstorm. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 raging, and I mean RAGING...sleet in Btown right now. Good grief.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GSO reporting a thunderstorm. Can anyone confirm? I haven't heard any thunder and I live 3-4 miles east of the airport. Maybe I missed it, though. Just moderate freezing rain. This is going to be ugly if we don't start pinging or snowing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.