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3/6-3/7 Last Hurrah Obs


Hvward

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Things seem to be mostly progressing as modeled from what I can tell, to be honest.

 

 

 

I guess you cannot count it out if we get rates, but otherwise, I'd think so.  I guess we can pray the ULL is magical tomorrow.  :weenie:

 

Let's hope sleet is the predominant P-type because this ZR is starting to get nasty.  Radar is juicy.

I haven't had any freexing rain yet. I've been all snow or sleet. Sleet is accumulating pretty well right now

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Will lose power here no doubt am northeast of GReensboro now winds 20-25 mph 30.6 for temp for northern guilford this might be Dec 2002 again already 0.1 ice

 

Yep, that might put us over the top.  The wind is pretty strong.

 

EDIT: Read Pack's posting of the latest RAH AFD just issued in the main thread.  They seem to favor a change back to snow during the heavier precip in the warned areas (i.e. Greensboro & Winston-Salem) with snowfall accumulations of a few inches.

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CAD is a total bust here in dahlonega. At 640 I was down to almost 34. At 10p I've risen to 41. Awesome!!! Had about 20-30 min of sleet in the beginning and that's been it for frozen.

 

same here - after getting my hopes up when the temp slipped below freezing ma nature slapped n ga again.  34 and a driving rain storm.

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Glad someone else noticed this. Just posted about it, we'll see over the next hour if this trends in some posters favor or not

 

 

Showing up on radar scope precip depiction also

 

Totally bogus... I don't know what they use for their precip detection, but its quite clearly wrong given the CC shows a sizeable red radius (of rain) over the GSP radar. The rain/mix line is all the way up banked against the WNC mountains.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.GSP.N0C.20140307.312.04

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Yep, that might put us over the top.  The wind is pretty strong.

 

EDIT: Read Pack's posting of the latest RAH AFD just issued in the main thread.  They seem to favor a change back to snow during the heavier precip in the warned areas (i.e. Greensboro & Winston-Salem) with snowfall accumulations of a few inches.

 

They did mention "several" plausible solutions, that being one of them.  As much as I would like to see it switch back to snow, I think ZR will be what is remembered about this storm when all said and done.  I think triad is ground zero for the ZR hammer tonight.  Winds really picking up now as AFD pointed out.

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They did mention "several" plausible solutions, that being one of them.  As much as I would like to see it switch back to snow, I think ZR will be what is remembered about this storm when all said and done.  I think triad is ground zero for the ZR hammer tonight.  Winds really picking up now as AFD pointed out.

 

They're most likely solution was 2-3" of snow.  They also mentioned that it is possible that we get all freezing rain, which would be a devastating ice storm.  They're other scenario was the deformation band setting up and being all-snow, which would drop 6"+.

 

AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES

SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE

WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS

TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE

NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP

ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A

PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR

SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN

INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF

SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE

PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE

ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO

PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR.

CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO

A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO

RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3

INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL

APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A

TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES

OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN

WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE

BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY

FOR NOW.

 

Are they right?  I don't know, but they sure as hell know more than I do. :)

 

----

 

As a side note, if we do stay as freezing rain, this very well may be the worst ice storm in at least 15 years (maybe a lot longer).  December 2002 had ice accrual of "only" around 1/2" in these parts due to significant mixing with SN/IP.

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I may be hallucinating, but when the precip picks up I can see some mostly melted snow mixing in slightly.  Current temp 32.4.  Still dropping slightly and getting ever closer!

 

Probably hallucinating per the CC ;)

 

Another good resource to watch tonight are the UNCA soundings (from Asheville, NC). If you see any evidence of a warm nose here right on the spine of the Appalachians, there is no hope for folks further south and east to get into the snow. The 00z sounding was isothermal from 900-800 hPa so no warm nose here (yet). Keep an eye on it though.

 

http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html

 

sempe1314_iop5_snd01.png

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Northern Foothills Snowman, on 06 Mar 2014 - 10:27 PM, said:

Where are you located roughly.We had heavy wet snow early ,in NW Surry Co., on maybe 1/2 in but not sleet.Just wondering if this will go back to snow?

 

I'm up in Roanoke.

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They're most likely solution was 2-3" of snow.  They also mentioned that it is possible that we get all freezing rain, which would be a devastating ice storm.  They're other scenario was the deformation band setting up and being all-snow, which would drop 6"+.

 

AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES

SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE

WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS

TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE

NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP

ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A

PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR

SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN

INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF

SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE

PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE

ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO

PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR.

CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO

A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO

RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3

INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL

APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A

TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES

OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN

WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE

BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY

FOR NOW.

 

Are they right?  I don't know, but they sure as hell know more than I do. :)

 

----

 

As a side note, if we do stay as freezing rain, this very well may be the worst ice storm in at least 15 years (maybe a lot longer).  December 2002 had ice accrual of "only" around 1/2" in these parts due to significant mixing with SN/IP.

 

 

Agree, this has the earmarks of being really really bad.

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