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March 5th-6th 2013-Noquester


hosj III

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This thread should be wiped and formatted. Who the he11 wants to discuss a recent bust. We spent months erasing it from our memory and now this

I'm out

Wait until next week. We are going to have the most epic bust of all time, topping December 2000 and 2010 and March 2001 and 2013.

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This was a very tough day!

I went to bed at midnight, radar was sick, short range models were going crazy with the WAA snow and it was already coming down. Figured I would wake up to 4-6 inches and SN+. Woke up to a dusting and lots of shell-shocked people on the boards assuring each other everything was going according to plan. I'm pretty sure I never had more than an inch and a half on the ground at a time, though I do not remember ever flipping to plain rain. Given what I saw the night before I seriously expected at least a foot as well as ripping TSSN.

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I went to bed at midnight, radar was sick, short range models were going crazy with the WAA snow and it was already coming down. Figured I would wake up to 4-6 inches and SN+. Woke up to a dusting and lots of shell-shocked people on the boards assuring each other everything was going according to plan. I'm pretty sure I never had more than an inch and a half on the ground at a time, though I do not remember ever flipping to plain rain. Given what I saw the night before I seriously expected at least a foot as well as ripping TSSN.

About the exact same thing happened to me.  Was watching the snow coming in from VA.  All the folks down in that area were reporting heavy snow and the snow was headed straight for us.  Short-range models were all giving us like 6-9" by daybreak.  Went to bed telling my wife that I think I had underestimated snow totals.  Woke up and was like...da fuq?  

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I have short term memory on this one... So what happened with the forecast / why did it bust?  Over-estimating the effects of CAD / under-estimating ability of over-running warmth to erode CAD?  I appreciate the disaster of crushed expectations.

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I have short term memory on this one... So what happened with the forecast / why did it bust? Over-estimating the effects of CAD / under-estimating ability of over-running warmth to erode CAD? I appreciate the disaster of crushed expectations.

Pretty simple. All the energy from the waa shield got zapped by the rapid strengthening down near ric. Then the low jogged se and kept the best lift and rates too far south. We all knew heavy rates were required during daylight and they.never materialized.

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Pretty simple. All the energy from the waa shield got zapped by the rapid strengthening down near ric. Then the low jogged se and kept the best lift and rates too far south. We all knew heavy rates were required during daylight and they.never materialized.

Yeah, the WAA snow just totally fizzled as it crossed the Potomac.  Temps were marginal as it is and we just never got rates.  It was still baffling during the day because we were under 20-25dbz returns all the time but it was always just -RASN in my backyard.  I think we eventually assumed the deceptively strong returns were just melting snow giving the radar a nice reflection?  

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Yeah, the WAA snow just totally fizzled as it crossed the Potomac. Temps were marginal as it is and we just never got rates. It was still baffling during the day because we were under 20-25dbz returns all the time but it was always just -RASN in my backyard. I think we eventually assumed the deceptively strong returns were just melting snow giving the radar a nice reflection?

It was a weird day. High res radar showed just pulses and lulls for hours. We kept looking at the firehose on Dover radar but the lift was weaker west of the bay so fizzle was on the menu. The good returns were probably a mix of melting snow and big gloppy but widely spaced flakes.

Euro had the se jog with the low within 48 hours IIRC but we all discounted it. It's an unusual track. Had the low tracked from ric to off the tidewater like we all agreed on the storm would have performed much better during the day. It just wasn't meant to be.

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About the exact same thing happened to me.  Was watching the snow coming in from VA.  All the folks down in that area were reporting heavy snow and the snow was headed straight for us.  Short-range models were all giving us like 6-9" by daybreak.  Went to bed telling my wife that I think I had underestimated snow totals.  Woke up and was like...da fuq?  

 

Stop... you're all depressing me. I've tried to erase this storm from my head and forget that it ever happened.

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