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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

Well I don't think anyone is hoping the 25 Euro ens members showing a 50 degree rainer are correct. Thankfully the other 27 members don't. But it is a slight worry

 

You would be wrong here sir.  I am hoping for a 50 degree rainer.  I would like to play golf at some point this spring (league scheduled to start first week April).  

 

But if the 50 degree rain is out of the question then I'll take 3 feet.  3 feet or 50 and rain.  Any other solution is a nuisance. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

And once again, It's all irrelevant at this time frame, Talk to me on Monday, Still early to get invested in any one model solution or ensemble run, Now if the ensembles keep hitting the cutter solution with more members moving left, Then i guess i could see some concern, Seen this all year with these systems, Looks like this one will be no different.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted

 

You would be wrong here sir.  I am hoping for a 50 degree rainer.  I would like to play golf at some point this spring (league scheduled to start first week April).  

 

But if the 50 degree rain is out of the question then I'll take 3 feet.  3 feet or 50 and rain.  Any other solution is a nuisance. 

I'm with you on this one, all or nothing, we have lots of projects I need to get to this spring, might as well start early if I can't get snow, this boring cold weather is lame.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Let's try to leep this thread and the March pattern thread a little more on topic and the banter, hopes, and heating for the banter thread. We've been slipping into Spring mode with the OT posting.

 

 

Agreed...perhaps if this threat continues to intensify on model runs over the next 24 hours, then we'll start a banter thread for this specific threat so people can post what they are wishing for. Or if someone really wants to, then start it today.

 

I think some take it a bit personal when we try to keep it on topic, but everyone has to remember that we have a ton of lurkers here and psoters who only occassionally post that are here to gain information on an upcoming storm or pattern...not logging in to see what I hope happens in MBY.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

A big reason the EURO/GFS differ right now is because the EURO phases with that energy leftover from this weekend's system that ends up over Texas, the GFS kind of kicks that out ahead. It would help keep the shortwave out west together. 

 

Yeah I noticed two distinct phases. After the one in the Mid/Lower MS valley another piece of energy drops south out of the Upper GL. As you said the GFS is more of a miss on the initial phase, but takes in the GL shortwave. That seems to be the key difference I notice between the runs. This is going to be iffy until the actual features at play can be sampled and ingested.

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2knees

2knees

Posted
Posted

Agreed...perhaps if this threat continues to intensify on model runs over the next 24 hours, then we'll start a banter thread for this specific threat so people can post what they are wishing for. Or if someone really wants to, then start it today.

 

I think some take it a bit personal when we try to keep it on topic, but everyone has to remember that we have a ton of lurkers here and psoters who only occassionally post that are here to gain information on an upcoming storm or pattern...not logging in to see what I hope happens in MBY.

Being a big time lurker with a Sugarbush trip planned next thursday and friday I am following this intently.  Snow would be great but I'm way more concerned about a cutter.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Being a big time lurker with a Sugarbush trip planned next thursday and friday I am following this intently.  Snow would be great but I'm way more concerned about a cutter.  

 

With that PV to the north I don't think you need to worry in Sugarbush. At least I wouldn't. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

With that PV to the north I don't think you need to worry in Sugarbush. At least I wouldn't. 

 

 

My gut right now tells me they will end up doing well in NNE out of this.

 

Obviously that gut feeling doesn't mean a ton yet, lol. We still have a ways to go...the look of a strong PNA ridge with some pretty potent energy digging down makes me thing we won't get big suppression like that last one.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted

Status quo...  

 

Nothing's changed and we are still in the same interim of wait, in which time model output will vary from cycle to cycle, based upon anything and everything that can occur in a vaguely limited fractal-guided medium.  

 

Part of that uncertainty includes data assimilation techniques/implementation for typically sparse sampling sectors out over the Pacific Ocean. Just out of curiosity ... I went to the D6 panel on a few guidance types, and then started clicking backward in time; by the time I arrived to D2 (48 hours away from the 00z run), the governing dynamics that would eventually settle into the emerging eastern N/A trough were situated roughly between Hawaii and California.

 

Which means, above all else, that those dynamics must currently be ~ 1/3rd the distance around the world, and... well, hell, I thought. May as well go take a look. It turns out, this couldn't be more complicated.

 

The governing dynamics are actually NNW of Hawaii, and would not even be accountable [probably] in the skies above N/A, if it were not for ginormous feature situated NNE of Japan (as of the 00z initialization).  The western Pac feature is a large, powerful Rex couplet; it breaks down, ultimately firing it's refuse down stream across the Pacific like a bulldozer jet -- and it really looks like a fist in the flow out there. It's leading ..bow shock in the atmosphere (for lack of better image) usurps the midriff closed low NNW of Hawaii, inducing it to enter back into the westerlies as a reactivated impulse.

 

This still is/was a teleconnector signaled event(s), and we really need to get these complex large scale relocating features underway and settled before much determinism re individual events can be realized.  

 

I think it would be more interesting if we somehow determined the MJO/tropical forcing may be in part causal in those changes in the western Pacific.  Either way, that's pretty largely part/parcel to why any of this takes place at all. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Models are struggling with keying in on which shortwave over the N Pac actually ejects east toward the Pacific Northwest. 

 

The 6z GFS actually takes a PV filament off the big low near Japan/Kamchatka and ejects it east... eventually becoming the PV disturbance that makes it to CONUS and spawns this low. 

 

The North Pacific flow is pretty convoluted as it is. Pseudo-omega block that breaks down over the next 72 hours. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

My gut right now tells me they will end up doing well in NNE out of this.

Obviously that gut feeling doesn't mean a ton yet, lol. We still have a ways to go...the look of a strong PNA ridge with some pretty potent energy digging down makes me thing we won't get big suppression like that last one.

If that's right that means SNE may not
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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Status quo...  

 

Nothing's changed and we are still in the same interim of wait, in which time model output will vary from cycle to cycle, based upon anything and everything that can occur in a vaguely limited fractal-guided medium.  

 

Part of that uncertainty includes data assimilation techniques/implementation for typically sparse sampling sectors out over the Pacific Ocean. Just out of curiosity ... I went to the D6 panel on a few guidance types, and then started clicking backward in time; by the time I arrived to D2 (48 hours away from the 00z run), the governing dynamics that would eventually settle into the emerging eastern N/A trough were situated roughly between Hawaii and California.

 

Which means, above all else, that those dynamics must currently be ~ 1/3rd the distance around the world, and... well, hell, I thought. May as well go take a look. It turns out, this couldn't be more complicated.

 

The governing dynamics are actually NNW of Hawaii, and would not even be accountable [probably] in the skies above N/A, if it were not for ginormous feature situated NNE of Japan (as of the 00z initialization).  The western Pac feature is a large, powerful Rex couplet; it breaks down, ultimately firing it's refuse down stream across the Pacific like a bulldozer jet -- and it really looks like a fist in the flow out there. It's leading ..bow shock in the atmosphere (for lack of better image) usurps the midriff closed low NNW of Hawaii, inducing it to enter back into the westerlies as a reactivated impulse.

 

This still is/was a teleconnector signaled event(s), and we really need to get these complex large scale relocating features underway and settled before much determinism re individual events can be realized.  

 

I think it would be more interesting if we somehow determined the MJO/tropical forcing may be in part causal in those changes in the western Pacific.  Either way, that's pretty largely part/parcel to why any of this takes place at all. 

 

MJO pulse should favor +PNA ridging. Things pretty much going as expected. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Yes, it is quite plausible SNE does not get a bunch of snow from this.

Well we certainly hope your gut is wrong then. As long as the PV is there I don't see how this can be  a warm rainer.

 

At least we have a shot at a not so usual icestorm I suppose if it wouldn't be snow. Look at what a marginal high did in NC in Morch today

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well we certainly hope your gut is wrong then. As long as the PV is there I don't see how this can be  a warm rainer.

 

At least we have a shot at a not so usual icestorm I suppose if it wouldn't be snow. Look at what a marginal high did in NC in Morch today

 

 

Well my gut just said NNE could do well...I never said anything about a warm rainer in SNE. Your hyperbole strikes again.

 

 

 

We could easily get decent snow and then a mess of sleet and ZR while NNE "does well". That is on the table. Something suppressed is still viable too but my feeling is this time that won't happen.

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