Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[CoastalWx]

That seems a little much. I'd be surprised if that happened.RGEM QPF that is.

[ineedsnow]

this webcam from coles pond will also be interesting to watch

 

http://www.rlpwx.com/

[powderfreak]

That seems a little much. I'd be surprised if that happened.RGEM QPF that is.

Yeah there's a bunch of weenie meso-scale models that seem to occasionally be pumping out like obscene areas of 2-3" melted in the snow zone. My guess is this runs more in the 1.0-1.75" range (still huge) but not buying the like 2.25" weenie totals, though maybe like 3,000ft on a lucky facing slope within a strong band or something.

[scoob40]

leanest healthiest meat you can eat, buffalo and venison are my main meats. We have a backyard full of deer.

 

 

Nice. The wilderness of Moosup !

[powderfreak]

The BTV4 WRF... likely over-done, haha.

 

[champy]

I'm outside of Syracuse, to the west about 15 miles. I'll post pics tomorrow, should be interesting on how this all plays out.

[CoastalWx]

That looks really noisy from the elevations. I've never seen it look so sensitive. Seems odd.

[powderfreak]

That looks really noisy from the elevations. I've never seen it look so sensitive. Seems odd.

That's pretty regular to be honest...it over-plays terrain but it often has a lot of little max and mins. The individual panels don't look like that (much more smoothed), but once added up that's what it looks like. It's like the high res NAM/WRF on NCEP but with even a little more localized max/mins. That BTV meso-model goes nuts when there's strong winds in the boundary to H85 layer.

[TalcottWx]

I'm hoping to get 2". I know most would take the under here. But what the hell? It's March, might as well hope we overperform. Pretty soon it will be 50F fog and mist.

[CoastalWx]

That's pretty regular to be honest...it over-plays terrain but it often has a lot of little max and mins. The individual panels don't look like that (much more smoothed), but once added up that's what it looks like. It's like the high res NAM/WRF on NCEP but with even a little more localized max/mins. That BTV meso-model goes nuts when there's strong winds in the boundary to H85 layer.

I've only really looked at it this winter so I'll take your word for it. Never seen it that noisy looking, but I did like how it performed in a few events here locally. Nailed the temp profile.

[powderfreak]

I've only really looked at it this winter so I'll take your word for it. Never seen it that noisy looking, but I did like how it performed in a few events here locally. Nailed the temp profile.

Yeah it seems to be one of those things that's the more QPF the more crazy it gets. Like it feeds back on itself. There may also be some convective parameters it is making up because that looks a lot like a warm season heavy rain event map from the model...if that makes any sense. Ie, I find it looking like that in a lot of warm season events and not as much snowstorms.

[phil882]

Interesting to see how that upper-level low currently over LA is affecting moisture advection into the developing surface low in MO. Dewpoint were significantly lower over the state than earlier forecasted and convection, while blossoming now, had a little bit of trouble earlier (and was behind even the HRRR guidance). 

[zoe456]

I'm strongly considering working at home tomorrow, foregoing my commute from Yarmouth to Westbrook. The trend for my neck of the woods seems to be a bit colder than earlier today.

[Ginx snewx]

Not a NESIS biggie. Lacks the population component.

not a parameter I remotely consider.

[kbc360]

leanest healthiest meat you can eat, buffalo and venison are my main meats. We have a backyard full of deer.

Let me know if you need eradication assistance!

[#NoPoles]

not to pester...but i was thinking of staying overnight near Mt snow, or Loon...but i really have no idea what area will do better...any suggestions? or any suggestions for a better place to overnight that's not either of the two mtns i mentioned?

[wxmanmitch]

not to pester...but i was thinking of staying overnight near Mt snow, or Loon...but i really have no idea what area will do better...any suggestions? or any suggestions for a better place to overnight that's not either of the two mtns i mentioned?

 

Definitely Loon since Mt. Snow will likely taint for a good part of the event owing to their lower latitude. Loon will get smoked up on the Kanc as they should stay all snow.

[#NoPoles]

Definitely Loon since Mt. Snow will likely taint for a good part of the event owing to their lower latitude. Loon will get smoked up on the Kanc as they should stay all snow.

 

 

thanks I was wondering if Mt Snow would have p-type issues...saw some nws snow maps and noticed Loon was in a good area...

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah it seems to be one of those things that's the more QPF the more crazy it gets. Like it feeds back on itself. There may also be some convective parameters it is making up because that looks a lot like a warm season heavy rain event map from the model...if that makes any sense. Ie, I find it looking like that in a lot of warm season events and not as much snowstorms.

ya that is honestly run of mill wrt elevation in any sort of coastal with serious qpf...since it's my weenie model i like to follow have seen it with much more upslope signature.

 

my friend in Randolph,Vt at 1400' will get a crushing.....they can't wait till his contract is over so they can move to florida lol

[N. OF PIKE]

Does waterville valley get any upslope .....i mean there isn't much ESE of them that is over 4k is there?

 

Sunapee?

[Professional Lurker]

Okemo, just a little north of mt snow... That's where id go if I didn't want to head further up.

BTW, somebody ganked my poles on Saturday at the beast. No doubt they confused them for their own, as they were cheap poles. ...needless to say, I too have been skiing without poles!

[Ginx snewx]

not to pester...but i was thinking of staying overnight near Mt snow, or Loon...but i really have no idea what area will do better...any suggestions? or any suggestions for a better place to overnight that's not either of the two mtns i mentioned?

Loon, Bretton Woods to get out of the winds though on Thursday, its going to be cold as hell.Your electric socks better work.

[#NoPoles]

Does waterville valley get any upslope .....i mean there isn't much ESE of them that is over 4k is there?

 

Sunapee?

let's chase

[N. OF PIKE]

does burlington or montp in vt would be a good location to chase that has nice amenities?

I stayed just outside monteplier in Barre...last week in a very comfortable room for a shade under 100$ on a week nite...i was very happy w ammenities and it's on a HILL for the weenie in me.

 

http://www.hilltopinnvt.net/

 

i have done alot of weenie drives and alot of hotels i was impressed with the room size.....comfy bed ...big screen (flat screen) and some nice eggs w complimentary breakfast (nice view as it's elevated a bit as well)

[HoarfrostHubb]

let's chase

Umbrella pics!

[Ginx snewx]

Cpick,this is a synoptic juicy storm, whats up with your upslope fetish in this storm.

[powderfreak]

Just noticed BUF has issued Blizzard Warnings in western NY.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just noticed BUF has issued Blizzard Warnings in western NY.

 

1977, 1985, 1993, and two times in 2014, once in January and then this one. Here is a video I took of the last one.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just noticed BUF has issued Blizzard Warnings in western NY.

yes,epicosity about to envelope the great white north

[N. OF PIKE]

Cpick,this is a synoptic juicy storm, whats up with your upslope fetish in this storm.

meh, if this storm wasn't in a progressive pattern and we had some blocking the synoptic juicyness would park a 970 over FVE and  stowe would get 15 synoptic  and upslope would give more than that for a 3 footer........as of now it's very good....prob 2 feet for them ....but not epic enuf to get me to drive on a wed nite after work that's all. If i had work off wed i would be driving up tonite.

 

Not trying to down play it at all....but i mean N greens can do 3 feet in 5 days EZ....they do every year (i've been following weather) but this year so far.  It's just not long enough duration to be epic ...it will dump and it will hopefully be biggest storm of year.

 

With that said i would like to know what scotter has for flags with such a TILTED System (mid levels low's well NW of surface) ...i was wondering what if any flags there would be in such a scenario ....(dry air at certain levels?)