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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

I have seen that gyx map pull out the 14-18 and 18-24's so many times to get burned, they dont really go conservative on totals much.

 

Easternmost jack on that map includes my area - would love to believe it.  QPF should be there, so the results would depend on ratios and possible northerly push of the warm layer.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Same here (Thornton) although I've been in the 14-18 on nearly every map. This one actually has 18-24 less than 5 miles away.

 

Not sure what Kev was talking about this not looking good for NH. Most of the state is above a foot.

 

I put it in perspective, I ride the 8-10 14-18" since i know the contours go in those increments, Then i would say its 10-14" here

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Easternmost jack on that map includes my area - would love to believe it.  QPF should be there, so the results would depend on ratios and possible northerly push of the warm layer.

 

You certainly are going to have the qpf coming to back it up it seems, Congrats by the way

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Ya this time, perhaps. I dont recall seeing them under in a event 90% of time (this winter)

To be honest you have to forecast the available guidance, but this was the winter to pick the under on the northern tier. Other winters they might have been too low with those forecasts. But nothing about any the BTV or GYX forecasts has seemed unreasonable at the time given model guidance...though there were some systems that came in on the under.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Euro is close to a mess for Brian. It gets a warm punch in above 950 it appears while the surface is below 32, but 20-30 miles north is all snow. This is for about 4-6 hrs or so. I haven't had time to dig too deeply, but the 850-700 critical thickness line is literally 20 miles north of the 0C isotherm at 850. So the sleet/snow line is not too far off from your 850mb 0C isotherm perhaps. Somehow I feel like those CAD spots may be a tad cooler than that at 850.

I think the writing is on the wall. I have no faith in the NCEP suite right now. I need a quick TD, onside kick recovery, and then another quick TD in under 2 minutes and we know that never happens.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think the writing is on the wall. I have no faith in the NCEP suite right now. I need a quick TD, onside kick recovery, and then another quick TD in under 2 minutes and we know that never happens.

Most of us would kill to be in your position..please... 6-8 inches of snow with sleet and zr in the middle. Where the F do i sign up

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

I think the writing is on the wall. I have no faith in the NCEP suite right now. I need a quick TD, onside kick recovery, and then another quick TD in under 2 minutes and we know that never happens.

For what though? Warning criteria? You should still be good for 6" or so I would think? I should finally beat you on a storm!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted

You may be able to factor in the models perhaps underestimating the cold push south, but the temps aloft are going to be a tough one.

 

I know you and Will discussed this earlier ... and I did yesterday, too, but since this wave is open and tilted, some icing perhaps over a narrow range.  This hits a good deal at night, which for this time of year is interesting..

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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High bust potential for me on the south side of my headlines. But I made a call, with even the Euro showing big time sleet sounding versus rain/ZR. It's basically a 50/50 blend of the Euro and NAM thicknesses.

 

For what it's worth, I did note that all guidance initialized too warm aloft when compared to actual soundings. Could be a saving grace for some on the edge.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

High bust potential for me on the south side of my headlines. But I made a call, with even the Euro showing big time sleet sounding versus rain/ZR. It's basically a 50/50 blend of the Euro and NAM thicknesses.

 

For what it's worth, I did note that all guidance initialized too warm aloft when compared to actual soundings. Could be a saving grace for some on the edge.

 

Seems like the lower 2500' cold push may be underestimated a bit too on the models.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's probably a big difference from him to Wxeye.

 

I have to say I'm also terrible at NH geography. I probably couldn't look at a map and figure out where LCI, MHT, and CON are. I pretty much know EEN and PSM... I've been to ME and VT so mcuh more than NH. 

 

I do think you're going to see an area that straddles the fence for quite sometime. That some serious lift along the 850-700mb front. I'd hedge a bit colder than the Euro. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I have to say I'm also terrible at NH geography. I probably couldn't look at a map and figure out where LCI, MHT, and CON are. I pretty much know EEN and PSM... I've been to ME and VT so mcuh more than NH.

I do think you're going to see an area that straddles the fence for quite sometime. That some serious lift along the 850-700mb front. I'd hedge a bit colder than the Euro.

I agree, man thats serious upglide.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I have to say I'm also terrible at NH geography. I probably couldn't look at a map and figure out where LCI, MHT, and CON are. I pretty much know EEN and PSM... I've been to ME and VT so mcuh more than NH. 

 

I do think you're going to see an area that straddles the fence for quite sometime. That some serious lift along the 850-700mb front. I'd hedge a bit colder than the Euro. 

 

Yeah if anything I like the euro ensemble temp profile...fwiw anyways.

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