Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[dendrite]

They'll go above 45 Saturday. You are a weenie.

Could be another year without a summer. Flurries in July maybe?

[dendrite]

I'll admit, I'm surprised just how different the ecens are from the op. They've been bouncing around quite a bit run to run though. GFS is a whiff up here so peeps need to remember that the models are still feeling this event out. Hopefully no one fell in love with the d10 euro op from a few days ago though.

[weathafella]

And cmc is a fropa. Alot of converged guidance is diverging. Looking at the euro ens, I thought it was a mistake. So different vs op and even prior runs.

[moneypitmike]

Just relax and see what plays out.  That's my new mantra.

 

As Fat Sam says in Fletch:  "when it comes, it comes.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just relax and see what plays out. That's my new mantra.

As Fat Sam says in Fletch: "when it comes, it comes.

Nice reference

[dendrite]

And cmc is a fropa. Alot of converged guidance is diverging. Looking at the euro ens, I thought it was a mistake. So different vs op and even prior runs.

Looking at the spag meteograms, it looks like there's 2 camps...half that look more like the op and then half with a cutter that even torch me aloft.

[codfishsnowman]

Basically exactly what I said I did not want to happen, low forms right along the front as it crossed SNE.

oh no!

[CoastalWx]

oh no!

Meh, I would t sweat it with such diverging solutions. GEFS still aren't buying the EC Ensembles yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

What an awful turn of events overnight. Hopefully just a blip..but not what anyone expected with a 50 degree rainer in SNE with rain up into NNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

BOX not buying the rainer ..nor should you

 

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES SOUTH AND BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS PROVIDES ROOM FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA.
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE A WAVE ON THE STALLED
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/MID ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE THEN PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE GFS IS
FASTER...THE ECMWF SLOWER IN THIS TIMING.

WE ARE MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS FOR ALL OF OUR AREA...MOSTLY SNOW DUE
TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

[CoastalWx]

BOX did not see EC enaembles to be fair.

[Damage In Tolland]

BOX did not see EC enaembles to be fair.

From what everyone says..you pretty much have to toss them aside and think they were a blip

[SnowMan]

From what everyone says..you pretty much have to toss them aside and think they were a blip

Lol now you are tossing ensembles when at this time range they should be taken more seriously than the op runs...

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol now you are tossing ensembles when at this time range they should be taken more seriously than the op runs...

When they make such a huge shift and half the members match the snowstorm on the op..it tells you something isn't right. Hey buy them if you want..maybe they are right and all of us get rain..but when half the members show snow..well i'm not buying

[CoastalWx]

From what everyone says..you pretty much have to toss them aside and think they were a blip

They are an outlier, but I would not outright dismiss it.

[SJonesWX]

I guess i made it to obvious.......

 

 

Looks like a progressive POS from a non mid atlantic point of view

suppression depression!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

And cmc is a fropa. Alot of converged guidance is diverging. Looking at the euro ens, I thought it was a mistake. So different vs op and even prior runs.

 

 

CMC got the whiff right last week from a few days out. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

They are an outlier, but I would not outright dismiss it.

 

Right.  People get too worked up five days out.  If the ensembles showed this solution sunday night I'd be more concerned.

 

Still, it would be brutal to have a cutter amidst all this cold and then have temps plummet again right after.  Not like we haven't seen that scenario this year.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice 06 GFS run,wintry appeal thruout

[Mikehobbyst]

Advice after checking this afternoon GFS and Euro models... Have a change of underwear.

[Bostonseminole]

Dismissing ensembles lol

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[Bostonseminole]

I really think is an all or nothing storm for me, if this one does not pan out bring on spring!

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[ORH_wxman]

Good look at the EC ensmeble spaghetti plots....the OP run might the least amped memeber of any of the 51 ensembles

 

 

[JC-CT]

Dismissing ensembles lol

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Well to be fair, there is a difference between dismissing the ensembles altogether and dismissing the ensemble mean as not strongly representing the solutions suggested by the individual members.

[powderfreak]

When they make such a huge shift and half the members match the snowstorm on the op..it tells you something isn't right. Hey buy them if you want..maybe they are right and all of us get rain..but when half the members show snow..well i'm not buying

Set your goals high and reach for the stars.

I see zero convergence on models this morning...everything from a cutter to a snowstorm to a FROPA with no storm. There's no way anyone can buy any solution at this point, snow or not.

[JC-CT]

Well to be fair, there is a difference between dismissing the ensembles altogether and dismissing the ensemble mean as not strongly representing the solutions suggested by the individual members.

And then Will with the spaghetti plot left hook.

[Chrisrotary12]

Well that was entertaining.  The EC ensembles went from a perfect track over the benchmark to taking it over Will's head in one run......while at the same time the EC operational went from the canal to between Nantucket and the benchmark.

 

At least the Ensemble didn't go southeast I guess right?

[ORH_wxman]

Despite the crazy OP solutions...I'll be honest, the ensemble guidance really isn't that far off...the Euro is a bit on the amped side...we already know that, but the CMC and GEFS ensembles don't have FROPAs...the CMC ensembles actually completely dismiss the OP run's frontal passage solution and are similar to the Euro in evolution except just not bringing the low up my fanny....instead more like near ACK...GEFS are just a bit further SE near the BM...but overall the evolution isn't that far off right now.

 

 

This is where you hope ensmeble guidance shines and you avoid getting wrapped up int he OP run swings.

[Damage In Tolland]

Despite the crazy OP solutions...I'll be honest, the ensemble guidance really isn't that far off...the Euro is a bit on the amped side...we already know that, but the CMC and GEFS ensembles don't have FROPAs...the CMC ensembles actually completely dismiss the OP run's frontal passage solution and are similar to the Euro in evolution except just not bringing the low up my fanny....instead more like near ACK...GEFS are just a bit further SE near the BM...but overall the evolution isn't that far off right now.

 

 

This is where you hope ensmeble guidance shines and you avoid getting wrapped up int he OP run swings.

Well I don't think anyone is hoping the 25 Euro ens members showing a 50 degree rainer are correct. Thankfully the other 27 members don't. But it is a slight worry

[ORH_wxman]

Well I don't think anyone is hoping the 25 Euro ens members showing a 50 degree rainer are correct. Thankfully the other 27 members don't. But it is a slight worry

 

 

The difference is like 80-100 miles...for a 132 hour forecast, you aren't going to get finer than that. And the Euro ensmebles would probably have some pretty big icing issues over the interior for a long while.