Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[ORH_wxman]

How about the rest of SNE?1-3?

 

 

Perhaps. Further north you are, the better.

[CT Rain]

Perhaps. Further north you are, the better.

 

The boundary layer really dries out fast as those NW winds crank. I think it will be hard to get more than an inch here in CT but if we get more rain than expected I could see a flash freeze develop... that is some really impressive CAA.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Will etc roughly speaking if I were looking to day trip or chase where would you head?  Skiing related.  Loon?  Sunday River?  Seems like the Loon area over into south central VT seems to bein a really good zone.   Onset time?  Safe travel Wednesday?

[CoastalWx]

Loon can get shadowed. SR, Cranmore etc over to Stowe or Cannon.

[Ginx snewx]

I would be surprised if we didn't get some 30" totals in the spine of the Greens from PF south to K Mart.

MRG special. Heavy heavy legs SVT,face shot powder NVT

[Typhoon Tip]

The boundary layer really dries out fast as those NW winds crank. I think it will be hard to get more than an inch here in CT but if we get more rain than expected I could see a flash freeze develop... that is some really impressive CAA.

 

 

I bet if a formal study were ever succeeded that compared "backlash" QPF scenarios with verification, there would be a positive bias in amts.  Particularly in NE .. or anywhere else, where the backing wind requires a down slope flow as another mitigation. 

[wxeyeNH]

Yeah...right about an isothermal 0C from H75-H8. We play with fire and probably mix at times around that 39hr mark. Hopefully the Euro isn't a toaster bath like last night.

 

Thanks guys on the great analysis of the storm.  Looks at this point the   all snow line will be right around me or maybe 20 miles to my north.  Will be home all day tomorrow for obs. Curious what the Euro will show

[radarman]

Killington->Sugarbush seems to be the best combo of QPF + cold temps in VT.  I'll be disappointed by less than 20".

 

edit- this:

 

 

MRG special. Heavy heavy legs SVT,face shot powder NVT

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like as the ULL moves across..it might snow most of Thursday in SNE..albeit lightly

[Ginx snewx]

Will etc roughly speaking if I were looking to day trip or chase where would you head? Skiing related. Loon? Sunday River? Seems like the Loon area over into south central VT seems to bein a really good zone. Onset time? Safe travel Wednesday?

Wildcat but beware wind holds everywhere .Best spot for windy stormy day, Bretton Woods

[CoastalWx]

The mtns of VT will get a fluff job Thursday that's for sure.

[ORH_wxman]

Will etc roughly speaking if I were looking to day trip or chase where would you head?  Skiing related.  Loon?  Sunday River?  Seems like the Loon area over into south central VT seems to bein a really good zone.   Onset time?  Safe travel Wednesday?

 

 

That Killington-Loon-Sunday River corridor looks great. Any south of that I might worry about mixing. Even Killington-Loon could briefly mix...but I doubt its a big deal if they do. Further north would be even safer, but obviously the drive time is longer.

[Ginx snewx]

Killington->Sugarbush seems to be the best combo of QPF + cold temps in VT. I'll be disappointed by less than 20".

edit- this:

you suck, lol enjoy the 4 day epic adventure, what town you staying in?

[CoastalWx]

Wildcat but beware wind holds everywhere .Best spot for windy stormy day, Bretton Woods

 

That's a good one too...won't really get shadowed either being where it is. Anything really on the E or SE side of the mtns except for maybe VT and those areas like Cannon etc. 

[ORH_wxman]

Loon can get shadowed. SR, Cranmore etc over to Stowe or Cannon.

 

 

Loon will clean up when the winds go more N/NNW...but yeah on easterly flow initially, they can be shadowed by presidentials. Sunday River and Killington won't have that issue.

[ma blizzard]

is there any concern for a breif period of freezing rain / sleet in northern ma / southern nh? it seems like temps at the surface crash quickly between 3z and 6z wed night while it takes until 6z to 7z for the collumn to substantially cool enough for snow .. 12z GFS seems to show this possibility

[radarman]

you suck, lol enjoy the 4 day epic adventure, what town you staying in?

 

Waitsfield.  Snorkel in tow.

 

Agree that wind hold may be likely on Thursday, could last all day.  Double chair at MRG is fairly resilient but it's going to be really cranking. It's not the worst thing in the world if the single is untouched for Friday.

[Ginx snewx]

Geezus on the cold Thursday, full winter gear skiing, no spring skiing yet. Next Monday is Jan weather too.

[CoastalWx]

Loon will clean up when the winds go more N/NNW...but yeah on easterly flow initially, they can be shadowed by presidentials. Sunday River and Killington won't have that issue.

 

They can get nasty shadowing sometimes if it's screaming E, but SE may be better for them. If he can go to SR he should, but that's a long drive. Maybe Killington is better if you don't want that drive. I mean you can't lose in that corridor you mentioned earlier. With winds aloft more SE, Loon might be a good spot now that I look at it.

[CT Rain]

The mtns of VT will get a fluff job Thursday that's for sure.

 

Actually would bump the max qpf axis north based on those mid level low tracks plus better precip efficiency to thr north in the colder air. 

[ORH_wxman]

is there any concern for a breif period of freezing rain / sleet in northern ma / southern nh? it seems like temps at the surface crash quickly between 3z and 6z wed night while it takes until 6z to 7z for the collumn to substantially cool enough for snow .. 12z GFS seems to show this possibility

 

 

It will prob sleet for a bit before flipping to snow at the end. And yeah, brief ZR could occur too, though it shouldnt last long enough to create any major issues....the biggest problem will be flash freezing between about 06z and 12z Thu.

[Ginx snewx]

They can get nasty shadowing sometimes if it's screaming E, but SE may be better for them. If he can go to SR he should, but that's a long drive. Maybe Killington is better if you don't want that drive. I mean you can't lose in that corridor you mentioned earlier. With winds aloft more SE, Loon might be a good spot now that I look at it.

The John Deere has limited range though.

[Great Snow 1717]

Seems like as the ULL moves across..it might snow most of Thursday in SNE..albeit lightly

Do you ever look at a situation and think it's not going to snow???

[CoastalWx]

Yesterday I was wondering if ZR could be an issue for a couple of hours with the cold wanting to ooze south, but it looks like sleet rules as even up to 950mb plummets. Impressive how the cold just presses south and rushes in rather quickly into nrn and NE MA after 4-5z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Do you ever look at a situation and think it's not going to snow???

Yes tomorrow.

 

In case you missed it..a few of the mets also noted it could snow much of Thursday in SNE.(lightly)

[toller65]

Loon will clean up when the winds go more N/NNW...but yeah on easterly flow initially, they can be shadowed by presidentials. Sunday River and Killington won't have that issue.

Sugarloaf FTW

[HoarfrostHubb]

Do you ever look at a situation and think it's not going to snow???

The modelling supports it

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sugarloaf FTW

They could be a jackpot zone... Maybe Shawnee Peak?

[toller65]

They could be a jackpot zone... Maybe Shawnee Peak?

Shawnee is going to taint a bit, but overall I would guess they shoud do well.  Just not as much terrain as the Loaf - of course the drive is longer, but worth it in my opinion.  Enjoy NNE!

[TalcottWx]

Backside light accums sne more the further n and w you are poasibly advisory..