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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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I'm surprised the warmth is so high in the atmosphere... if you are looking at soundings, in your area what do H85 temps correlate to the warmth up at H75?  Ie, is the sleet line like south of -2C at H85?  Just trying to judge the mix line off the progs that list 850mb temps.

 

These are the soundings for an area around Bridgton, ME (green) and PWM (orange).

 

So depending on location it will be a sharp gradient at 850 mb, but PWM is around -5.

post-44-0-49207700-1394548430_thumb.jpg

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dryslot

dryslot

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Hr39 on the nam was the only 3hr period we were above freezing in the layers between 700-800 

  4  850  1194  -4.0  -4.1  99  0.1  -4.0  86  44 282.0 282.5 277.3 291.3  3.31  5  800  1678   0.9   0.9 100  0.0   0.9 148  36 292.1 293.0 284.1 306.9  5.11  6  750  2199   1.1   1.1 100  0.0   1.1 187  47 297.8 298.8 286.8 314.1  5.52  7  700  2752  -1.1  -1.1  99  0.1  -1.1 203  51 301.3 302.2 287.6 316.4  5.03
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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The system is pretty tilted, so its normal for the warmth to be higher up in that type of setup. On the NAM, you have a sfc low over Philly at 00z Thu with the 850 low over BGM and a 700 low prob between SYR and ROC.

 

And that means when the cold air decides to slosh south it's going to come fast. Even at places like PWM, the NAM wants to rain for a while but then jerks surface temps back down to around -10 C by 06z Thursday. Almost like the cold undercuts the warmth aloft and results in mixing, not the warmth overriding the cold.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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And that means when the cold air decides to slosh south it's going to come fast. Even at places like PWM, the NAM wants to rain for a while but then jerks surface temps back down to around -10 C by 06z Thursday. Almost like the cold undercuts the warmth aloft and results in mixing, not the warmth overriding the cold.

 

 

Yep...that further south sfc track increases the chance of a flash freeze in a lot of places. Even down here, it goes from like a 35F rain to a 27F pellet-fest to 21F SN in about 2-3 hours. :lol:

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Yep...that further south sfc track increases the chance of a flash freeze in a lot of places. Even down here, it goes from like a 35F rain to a 27F pellet-fest to 21F SN in about 2-3 hours. :lol:

 

Exactly, NAM12 has PSM going from 33 and rain to 19 and sleet in 6 hours.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Do you think the NAM has any credibility at this point? I mean, is this run supported by anything else?

 

 

06z was prob too cold, but the 12z is lining up with a lot of other guidance...00z euro was a bit warmer and further north with the low, but something tells me it will shift back south a tick at 12z given what has happened since 00z.

 

But we'll see. This system has been kind of a nightmare on guidance.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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06z was prob too cold, but the 12z is lining up with a lot of other guidance...00z euro was a bit warmer and further north with the low, but something tells me it will shift back south a tick at 12z given what has happened since 00z.

 

But we'll see. This system has been kind of a nightmare on guidance.

 

Understatement of the year right there.  :)

 

What's your gut tell you about accumulations out this way, Will?  It's really a close, but no cigar system as I see it.  Perhaps a blunt.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Understatement of the year right there.  :)

 

What's your gut tell you about accumulations out this way, Will?  It's really a close, but no cigar system as I see it.  Perhaps a blunt.

 

I think you'll probably get something like 3-5" on the back end with a flash freeze. Potential for a shade more if this cools a tick between now and tomorrow night.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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This certainly has seemed like one of the worst winter's I can remember (at least on the boards, too) for models and accuracy.  Its like everytime you expect one thing, another happens...or three main models go one way, and another couple go another way.  Then 6-hours later, they flip flop.  Really no consistency and no real "winner" of the season, though the ECM usually gets the nod when its pretty consistent. 

 

You just really never know what to expect this winter, even like 24-36 hours out.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Looks a shade cooler...but not drastically.

 

This will essentially come down to a nowcast situation for those on the battle-line.  Not sure anyone can accurately pick one model over another at this point, they are all in a similar ballpark.  Its just little blips make a huge difference to some posters and population. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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This certainly has seemed like one of the worst winter's I can remember (at least on the boards, too) for models and accuracy.  Its like everytime you expect one thing, another happens...or three main models go one way, and another couple go another way.  Then 6-hours later, they flip flop.  Really no consistency and no real "winner" of the season, though the ECM usually gets the nod when its pretty consistent. 

 

You just really never know what to expect this winter, even like 24-36 hours out.

 

Big ridges near AK and fast flow are the worst. Models cannot handle disturbances coming from that region well. Blocking patterns where models can key in and agree on large scale features offer the best continuity.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Definitely warmer and further north than the NAM...RGEM always seems a tad amped though, but some say it has merit?  Don't really follow this model.

 

It's near the top of the best performing guidance list for the GYX CWA when it comes to temps. Probably very similar for BTV's area.

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Whineminster

Whineminster

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Big ridges near AK and fast flow are the worst. Models cannot handle disturbances coming from that region well. Blocking patterns where models can key in and agree on large scale features offer the best continuity.

is that because of a lack of weather ballons in that region leading to poor sampling? :P hehe

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dendrite

dendrite

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GFS coming in a little warmer again so it appears the 6z NCEP suite was a bit of a blip, but 12z is still cooler than 00z. Still all snow here this run, but we get close to pinging. Nice run for north of CON. Hopefully it's right with the cooler mid-level temps, but I'm fully expecting a period of pinging.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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GFS coming in a little warmer again so it appears the 6z NCEP suite was a bit of a blip, but 12z is still cooler than 00z. Still all snow here this run, but we get close to pinging. Nice run for north of CON. Hopefully it's right with the cooler mid-level temps, but I'm fully expecting a period of pinging.

 

If you compare the NAM and GFS at 00z Thursday, they mid level front at 850 mb looks nearly identical.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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12z GFS a tic SE of 06z, Also looks like we are getting more of the PV dropping slighty S on the backside of the troff as well as its changing the troff axis along the coast with the suface low being slightly further east before turning up the coast

 

 

Its warmer on the front end and middle, but it does try and rip things east pretty quick.

 

 

It has a pretty nice looking backside deformation region which could produce several inches of powder....even down into SNE it has a few inches.

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