Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[dryslot]

I did not see anyone post the car map but Congrats MLT and HUL

 

[forkyfork]

at 48 hrs I'll ride the euro every time

[Randy4Confluence]

1" of mashed potatoes this morning.

 

GYX has cut back the snow accumulation on the coastal plain, which I expected, due to sleet and freezing rain. But 4"-6" here will still be a net gain. This storm will be fun to watch. I will watch with interest for any trends today.

Good luck dude and enjoy.

[ineedsnow]

nam looks like its going to come in further south and quicker but its early

[dendrite]

nam looks like its going to come in further south and quicker but its early

I think it will be somewhere between 00z and 6z.

[ineedsnow]

def south and 3 hours faster if you look at hr 30 then 39 its in the same spot just about 25 miles south

I think it will be somewhere between 00z and 6z.

[dryslot]

It is a little faster then 06z, 4mb weaker in a little south as well with the surface low but not much, It still the Nam though

[powderfreak]

NAM at 30:

 

[powderfreak]

NNE buried at 36.

 

[dendrite]

Definitely warmer than 6z. Looks a bit like the 6z GFS. I mix for a bit this run.

[OceanStWx]

It is a little faster then 06z, 4mb weaker in a little south as well with the surface low but not much, It still the Nam though

 

It's warmer than 06z, but that's not really surprising.

[powderfreak]

This could have some wrap around for SNE...

[dryslot]

It's warmer than 06z, but that's not really surprising.

 

Its is, 06z Nam was the coldest of all the models i had seen

[dryslot]

I better get out my snowmobile helmet on the Nam, Low looks to track over SE Mass

[powderfreak]

Nice deform band from the Maine mountains and southern Quebec all the way down VT into western SNE on the radar prog...probably some upslope component too, but looks like a band of snow moves through SNE with the FROPA.

[powderfreak]

Well that would work.

 

[OceanStWx]

NAM12 soundings in AWIPS around IZG show a brief period of mix at 03z Thursday. +1 at 750 mb, surrounded by heavy snow soundings.

[dryslot]

Up here, 1.50" qpf plus from Central Maine south to the coast on the Nam

[ineedsnow]

I would hope so you would probably get 2 feet or more on the nam 

Well that would work.

 

[dryslot]

NAM12 soundings in AWIPS around IZG show a brief period of mix at 03z Thursday. +1 at 750 mb, surrounded by heavy snow soundings.

 

Right at the height before temps look to crash backside at 06z

[dendrite]

I better get out my snowmobile helmet on the Nam, Low looks to track over SE Mass

we both get a period of pinging. We need to cool that H7-H8 layer about 2C at the height.

[dryslot]

we both get a period of pinging. We need to cool that H7-H8 layer about 2C at the height.

 

Yeah, Looks right at 03z like Chris said

[dryslot]

SV's skew t plots are useless for up here with no stations listed

[powderfreak]

Up here, 1.50" qpf plus from Central Maine south to the coast on the Nam

 

Yeah looks like in the vicinity of 1.25-1.75" QPF in northern/central VT. 

[OceanStWx]

we both get a period of pinging. We need to cool that H7-H8 layer about 2C at the height.

 

I mean this NAM run is warmer, but it looks all frozen to me. Even down to PWM. It's +2 at 750 to 800 mb. That's a sleet sounding, not ZR or rain. I'll wait to see Bufkit though, since AWIPS interpolates between grid points.

[dryslot]

Yeah looks like in the vicinity of 1.25-1.75" QPF in northern/central VT.

Same here, It was still going when I posted that

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

I mean this NAM run is warmer, but it looks all frozen to me. Even down to PWM. It's +2 at 750 to 800 mb. That's a sleet sounding, not ZR or rain. I'll wait to see Bufkit though, since AWIPS interpolates between grid points.

 

I'm surprised the warmth is so high in the atmosphere... if you are looking at soundings, in your area what do H85 temps correlate to the warmth up at H75?  Ie, is the sleet line like south of -2C at H85?  Just trying to judge the mix line off the progs that list 850mb temps.

[dryslot]

I mean this NAM run is warmer, but it looks all frozen to me. Even down to PWM. It's +2 at 750 to 800 mb. That's a sleet sounding, not ZR or rain. I'll wait to see Bufkit though, since AWIPS interpolates between grid points.

 

I think i would take that run right now, We pelt for a time but that was a solid thump as well

[mattlacroix4]

Lock in the NAM

 

But seriously, good to see it didn't jump back to where Euro is. I suspect the Euro will come south some, and cooler. I really don't see my area escaping sleet, but staying frozen is good enough.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm surprised the warmth is so high in the atmosphere... if you are looking at soundings, in your area what do H85 temps correlate to the warmth up at H75?  Ie, is the sleet line like south of -2C at H85?  Just trying to judge the mix line off the progs that list 850mb temps.

 

 

The system is pretty tilted, so its normal for the warmth to be higher up in that type of setup. On the NAM, you have a sfc low over Philly at 00z Thu with the 850 low over BGM and a 700 low prob between SYR and ROC.