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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

You should flip to some backside snow...even on the warmer models. The cold crashes in really fast.

Congrats.  My zone forecast does not include an accumulation--I guess tomorrow night's too far out to include it??  My p/c has a whopping 1-3". 

 

At least with the cooler weather on Thursday the melting will be tempered.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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The RGEM didn't cool off during the day Wed. like the two US models., but the cold is crashing into it good from 0Z on.... I think it's pretty positive for you. The low is around Newport, R.I. at 48 hrs.

 

Plus that model always seems to be the warmest with it's thermal profile.

Not the direction where I wanted the 0z Euro heading, Will see what happens today but mixing is starting to look more likely

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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The RGEM didn't cool off during the day Wed. like the two US models., but the cold is crashing into it good from 0Z on.... I think it's pretty positive for you. The low is around Newport, R.I. at 48 hrs.

Yes rick, It did tic a little SE from 0z with the cold, Rain line was just to the NW of me at 0z, 06z started as rain then flipped to a mix of SN/IP it looked like

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

RGEM is still pretty warm so I'm tossing the 6z NCEP suite. If the 12z GFS comes in cold again then maybe we have something.

 

Although the 6z NCEP suite does seem to be closer to a climo favored track, taking it along the south shore of New England rather than like AVP-BOS. 

 

For you and Dryslot though, the its the difference is pretty large although you guys get a lot of snow no matter what...if it can hold south of the coast, you guys jackpot and we are left with a measly 10-16" up here.  ;)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'm a little concerned about QPF.......Lol

Sent from my iPhone

 

Stop taking my darn QPF on the NCEP models, lol ;)

 

I like the pretty pinks more than the light blues. 

 

Those NCEP runs are powder blizzards up here with H85 temps between -10C and -20C.  Its surprising because its so freakin' warm up here right now... 28F at 4,000ft and 34F at 1,500ft.

 

 

 

 

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Your ratios will be really nice though regardless so an inch of qpf would be easily 15". We won't even talk about oro effects.

Although the 6z NCEP suite does seem to be closer to a climo favored track, taking it along the south shore of New England rather than like AVP-BOS. 

 

For you and Dryslot though, the its the difference is pretty large although you guys get a lot of snow no matter what...if it can hold south of the coast, you guys jackpot and we are left with a measly 10-16" up here.  ;)

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Stop taking my darn QPF on the NCEP models, lol ;)

I like the pretty pinks more than the light blues.

Those NCEP runs are powder blizzards up here with H85 temps between -10C and -20C. Its surprising because its so freakin' warm up here right now... 28F at 4,000ft and 34F at 1,500ft.

Is the base colder? Sounds like you have an inversion going on if that's the case

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Your ratios will be really nice though regardless so an inch of qpf would be easily 15". We won't even talk about oro effects.

PF's scars run deep from this season, He is getting the pre storm bulls eye zone jitters, He is in a win win spot for this one with its track

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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PF's scars run deep from this season, He is getting the pre storm bulls eye zone jitters, He is in a win win spot for this one with its track

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Haha, I'm not jittery, that was total sarcasm.  I see no reason why this would fail to reach double digits to make it my largest storm of the season at home. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

We had an inversion last night for awhile ..slipped back to 28, but then jumped to 38 which was the high for the day. Back to 36 now.

Looking outside this am looks like 1.5-2.0" snow eyeballing until I go measure from that s/w weak clipper that moved thru here from the northern jet overnight

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Is the base colder? Sounds like you have an inversion going on if that's the case

Sent from my iPhone

 

Its a minor inversion at the very lowest level...but like say BTV where there's no inversion is currently 38-40F.  If this mixes out, the 750ft probably jumps quickly to like 36F.

4000ft...28F

1,500ft..34F

  750ft...31F

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Haha, I'm not jittery, that was total sarcasm. I see no reason why this would fail to reach double digits to make it my largest storm of the season at home.

I don't either I tossing in a little humor , Your finally going to get one come your way congrats, Should be a great event for many up here

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Actually upon closer examination, the RGEM is definitely cooler than 0Z. 0Z was ultra torched.

 

I havent' looked, but the earlier posts about the RGEM seemed that it was clearly warm (maybe that was just in relation to the NAM/GFS 06 runs).

 

I like where you're sitting with this one, Rick.  It won't be pretty at times, but I think you'll wind up with some nice totals out your way.

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