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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

That high is really trying to press into NNE as the system approaches. C NH to dryslot really need another tick south of the 12z euro.

GFS was a tick better but still pelts, Qpf bumped up as well now around 2" , Would feel better if we get the Euro to move as well

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

Posted
Posted

It gets a clue sometimes inside 36 hours. We can hope for the best.

It is nice to be trending south for a change, and man that's one heck of a H85 temperature gradient over NY/New England on the 6z NAM.  gonna be some crazy lift and nice banding to the north of that if it comes to fruition.

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

Posted
Posted

One theme on all the models now is to crash the cold air in fast around 0Z tomorrow and flip the Albany area to snow with several inches at least. The question is whether we waste a lot of precip during the day Wednesday while it snows just north.

the WAA push is definitely stronger on the GFS/EC/CMC and flips ALB to rain for quite a while.. let's hope the NAM has a clue and is right about the lead vort lobe being weaker and not as wrapped up.. the high to the north is better established as well.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I feel like this is a common theme with the NAM 36-48 hours out, especially on an off hour run. Likely an over correction but who knows.

Not worried as the ECM hasn't budged in now like 5-6 runs, and the NAM would still be a foot of snow, but that would make a huge difference far northern Mass, SVT, SNH.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

It did tick north at 0z ...enough to take me from a foot back to 6", but 25 miles matters when you're on the edge. But yeah you can't expect a model not to waver slightly run to run.

 

Not worried as the ECM hasn't budged in now like 5-6 runs, and the NAM would still be a foot of snow, but that would make a huge difference far northern Mass, SVT, SNH.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Hah The NAM snowfall map on weatherbell has Tolland flirting with 6"+ The heavy stuff is south of rte.2.

Those maps are useless though. Just look at the 850 temps.

But anyway, you can see why it did it...weaker and further south...the low is the furthest south of any model with 984mb just south of Long Island, when the EURO was 975mb over CT, and GFS 980mb over CT.

Just stunningly beautiful out this morning. Heard the guy plow the driveway and checked 2.6" of 32F cake plastered to all the trees and everything. Makes 4.6" in the last two days in the lead-up to the main system. Looks like deep winter again with snow even sticking up the sides of tree trunks.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

It's just enough here to switch me back to mostly snow...  Living on the edge.  ;)

 

Congrats.  My zone forecast does not include an accumulation--I guess tomorrow night's too far out to include it??  My p/c has a whopping 1-3". 

 

At least with the cooler weather on Thursday the melting will be tempered.

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