Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[dryslot]

Yeah, Its a hair slower and a tad south then 18z, Pv is doing what some expected early on

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, Its a hair slower and a tad south then 18z, Pv is doing what some expected early on

 

 

Should be a crusher in your region this run is my guess....prob won't help us enough down here, though perhaps it might flash freeze us better for a quick couple inches on the back end.

 

But I still think it will probably be more amped than the euro. DST really sucks. We should have been done with this trash by now if it was standard time about to get the GFS in 20 minutes.

[Cold Miser]

2 rounds are on you if you get over 8"?

 

 

Albany going big for the Adirondacks:

 

 

That small lake in Herkimer county (kind of crosses into Hamilton county) just above the 18x24 is where our lake house is.

(in case anyone gives a crap.)

[dryslot]

Should be a crusher in your region this run is my guess....prob won't help us enough down here, though perhaps it might flash freeze us better for a quick couple inches on the back end.

 

But I still think it will probably be more amped than the euro. DST really sucks. We should have been done with this trash by now if it was standard time about to get the GFS in 20 minutes.

 

Yeah, I don't need much of a tic SE here to be ok, I can see a couple extra bathroom breaks over night tonight, Especially around 2:15 am.......lol

[NorEastermass128]

Judging by the posts today, am I correct to assume the 2-4" for ern MA N of the Pike is unlikely to verify?

[N. OF PIKE]

Unless euro is colder on front end i would say yes ^

[N. OF PIKE]

Nice locale Garth!

[weathafella]

Go to Quebec to be safe per the nam....lol.

[powderfreak]

Destroyed. What a beast. Looking good still on the NAM haha.

[weathafella]

Actually , a Powderfreak shellacking!

[ORH_wxman]

Go to Quebec to be safe per the nam....lol.

 

 

It was actually a decent amount colder than 18z...that's how bad 18z was.

[weathafella]

Jeff in Maine gets his signature event of this winter.

[dendrite]

Definitely cooler, but still a warm tongue up to the Whites.

[dryslot]

It was actually a decent amount colder than 18z...that's how bad 18z was.

 

 

Jeff in Maine gets his signature event of this winter.

 

Better then 18z and a big wallop

[ORH_wxman]

NAM near BGM at 12z Thu while Euro was near PHL or ILG.

[powderfreak]

That thermal gradient is disgusting... +4C at H85 over extreme southern VT at hour 54, while it's -14C at Jay Peak.

[dryslot]

Definitely cooler, but still a warm tongue up to the Whites.

 

Better seeing it go this direction then where 18z went

[ORH_wxman]

Better seeing it go this direction then where 18z went

 

 

It will probably keep trending south toward the Euro since its starting to get inside 48h. 18z was probably its pinnacle whacko run.

[OceanStWx]

That thermal gradient is disgusting... +4C at H85 over extreme southern VT at hour 54, while it's -14C at Jay Peak.

 

Heavy, heavy frontogenesis.

[dryslot]

It will probably keep trending south toward the Euro since its starting to get inside 48h. 18z was probably its pinnacle whacko run.

 

If we could get a tic out of the Euro and the rest go that way it would really help brian and I as we ride the thermal gradient, The PV drives the bus for this one and we are all just passangers

[powderfreak]

Heavy, heavy frontogenesis.

Yeah the amount of lift as that thermal gradient traverses the area with strong southerly flow over-top looks nuts. That's some heavy heavy right there.

[powderfreak]

It will probably keep trending south toward the Euro since its starting to get inside 48h. 18z was probably its pinnacle whacko run.

Yeah, I expected the 18z to go south and it mixed to MPV lol.

[kmcfarland99]

It will probably keep trending south toward the Euro since its starting to get inside 48h. 18z was probably its pinnacle whacko run.

Does this mean that SW coastal Maine (PWM) still could see less mixing and higher snow amounts or is it still just too close to call for this area?

[OceanStWx]

Yeah the amount of lift as that thermal gradient traverses the area with strong southerly flow over-top looks nuts. That's some heavy heavy right there.

 

Euro is taking parcels around 1000 mb at CHH and lifting them to 750 mb by the time they reach BTV.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, I expected the 18z to go south and it mixed to MPV lol.

 

 

I mean 06z might mix to Montreal and I can't sya I'd be totally shocked...but this run was about 48h out...so from now on it should at least start to get clue, but really inside of about 30 hours.

 

Thankfully we have other guidance to go by, because the way the NAM shifts from run to run and just how flat out wrong it is sometimes...we'd look pretty stupid if we only had it to forecast with.

 

 

I'll be interested to see the RGEM, it was pretty amped up at 18z...but 48h is at the end of its run and its a little iffy out there. It really seems to perform well inside of 36h...much more reliably than the nam.

[dryslot]

Unless there was another warm layer that i can't see, Looks like we stayed isothermal here on the Nam fwiw

[dendrite]

Unless there was another warm layer that i can't see, Looks like we stayed isothermal here on the Nam fwiw

KLEW is near mixing at 51hr and is sleet at 54hr and 57hr. The 57hr sounding is hilarious.

3 900 692 -11.2 -11.3 99 0.1 -11.2 45 43 270.0 270.3 268.0 274.9 1.79

4 850 1140 -0.6 -0.7 100 0.0 -0.6 109 23 285.5 286.2 280.3 297.6 4.29

5 800 1629 1.8 1.5 98 0.3 1.7 196 28 293.1 294.1 284.8 308.6 5.35

That could be close to spitting out dendritic growth at H9 with any bit of lift.

[dryslot]

KLEW is near mixing at 51hr and is sleet at 54hr and 57hr. The 57hr sounding is hilarious.

3 900 692 -11.2 -11.3 99 0.1 -11.2 45 43 270.0 270.3 268.0 274.9 1.79

4 850 1140 -0.6 -0.7 100 0.0 -0.6 109 23 285.5 286.2 280.3 297.6 4.29

5 800 1629  1.8 1.5   98 0.3 1.7 196 28 293.1 294.1 284.8 308.6 5.35

That could be close to spitting out dendritic growth at H9 with any bit of lift.

 

We still will need a couple tics to stay mainly snow but i won't be shocked if we see IP for a time before we flip back

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup, it was a "success" in that we have a major system moving through our region....there's no way to tell that you miss a snowstorm by 50 miles or if you get in the bullseye.

 

Teleconnectors are about storm systems and/or precipitation events...for those who are still learning. They don't tell you its going to be snowing in ORH or raining in BOS or snowing on the Cape. They tell us that there is an elevated chance of a large storm system.

 

Thanks for this post, Will -- I fear there are those that saw this and might ..."blame" for lack of better word, that the "successful" signal didn't produce snow. 

 

Btw, I still am not totally certain of that it won't get further S.  I'm seeing an oblong pressure pattern in the NAM's 00z run, suggesting there may be a little bit of BL resistance after all. This is like a razor party

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM is still really amped. I'd like to see that model come south a bit since it actually has a shred of credibility.