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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Looks like I will catch up to you on snowfall on this one.  The 20 miles and 500 foot difference could mean a lot in this one.  Still 2 days out.  Wonder if it could even ramp up more and drive the warm air north.  Finally a great storm for me!

 

I don't think elevation will mean too much...I think latitude will.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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I don't see anything wrong with nrn ORH county. Add up the snow + impact. You get some on the front end, mix and then on the backside maybe a few inches at least. High impact event possibly up there.

I need a shawl. Won't the warm tongue come screaming in here pretty quickly? 850s seem to suggest a pretty long time where it rains. True temps crash but isn't it close to over by then?
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I need a shawl. Won't the warm tongue come screaming in here pretty quickly? 850s seem to suggest a pretty long time where it rains. True temps crash but isn't it close to over by then?

 

 

All those are possible in a "worst case scenario", so yes, they can happen like that...I know it is not in your or MPM's nature to think anything other than "worst case scenario", but its possible that you snow a bit on the front end and then flash freeze well early enough to get 4-6" on the back end.

 

 

Those are still very real questions marks in that region.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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All those are possible in a "worst case scenario", so yes, they can happen like that...I know it is not in your or MPM's nature to think anything other than "worst case scenario", but its possible that you snow a bit on the front end and then flash freeze well early enough to get 4-6" on the back end.

 

 

Those are still very real questions marks in that region.

 

 

Tough to have faith in the back end snows just based on being gun shy from how that's worked out in past events over the years.

 

I don't know what happened to Dave, he used to be much more optimistic. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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Lol. Psychoanalyzing

I have done pretty well with my conservative approach this winter. Tell you guys what, if I get more than 4" total, a round of beers on me at the next gtg I go to

Seriously, I get amped up for bowling balls

 

 

2 rounds are on you if you get over 8"?

 

 

Albany going big for the Adirondacks:

 

 

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I need a shawl. Won't the warm tongue come screaming in here pretty quickly? 850s seem to suggest a pretty long time where it rains. True temps crash but isn't it close to over by then?

 

Well don't forget this is a first guess approach, but like Will said..these are all real questions. Right now even the GFS has some front end snow for you. I probably would lean Euro which gives credit to the BOX forecast...but again...I certainly can't argue with those amounts.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you...

 

This NAM run (as you all are aware) sucks giant donkey dink if you were hoping for some colder solutions.  

 

This thing not only slaps your face for daring to have such hopes and dreams, it sweetens its evil by wiping out half the snow pack that remains.  If the DP really screams to 48F with driving rain and gusty SE winds like that surface evolution tries to pull off, it will eat the snow alive I'm afraid.  I have seen 10" gone in 9 hours before in extreme cases and this run reminds of those. 

 

Outside of 48 hours it has had a bias of being too far NW in the past.  I am not sure if that has ever been corrected.  Having said that, this system starts phasing in the mid levels way out in IN/OH, and that's bad.  There's just not enough BL resistance in place to stop the sfc response from cleaving it's way over land.

 

So we're left with yet another needle thread scenario ... we've been fortunate with these so far this year. I'll tell you one thing, if this comes back S somehow the scale of apoplexy in minds of the starved, now deliciously set up north country would be quite appealing to the schadenfreude-ists of the forum.. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think that model loves to show some 48 hr amped up goodness.

 

I think it's time to start conceding ... 

 

that way, you can only be pleasantly surprised when you've set your expectations ...pretty much at 0 given the last 24 hours of trends.  good grief.   

 

I feel your pain.  

 

Here's my problem ... my pendulum has swung the other way and want summer.  Now, looking ahead, this system banging but to the SNE crew is not like a sign of the time of change.  It's just a miserable rain event before pattern reload for more winter (maybe) in the extend (as discussed yesterday).

 

Heh, well -- what can we do.  I'm wondering if flood is an issue in all seriousness.  

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