Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[Randy4Confluence]

That wasn't really a flash freeze. That was snow that melted after first hitting the pavement and then as more snow fell...it become snow covered. I remember that one well.

Well, I'll certainly give you (and ORH) benefit of the doubt, but I could swear I remember that the pileup was caused by temps quicly crashing and causing the roads to freeze up quickly. It doesn't matter at this point obviously. I could be wrong, but I usually remember crap like that pretty well.

[MainePhotog]

Have not seen either Eck or Chris lately posting on here

 

Maybe pulling their hair out. I'm sure they are busy.

[Damage In Tolland]

Any chance this dramatically shifts SE as the other storm a week or two ago did? That look like it would be a solid hit and then primarily became an ocean storm.

Youll be tasting the same rain you were laughing at us for the other day

[dryslot]

thanks for posting Dryslot, locked and loaded here lol

 

 

neverending winter continues in the north country it seems

 

 

at my parents in Ottawa right now, looks like mid January arctic outside haha

 

headin back to Vermont tomorrow for the storm!

 

Congrats man and enjoy it up there

[powderfreak]

No way BTV loses out to us, has that even happened in the last 50 years, ever? NYC beat ORH in 03-04, but I think that was the only time ever.

I have no idea honestly...I know Philly was ahead as of two weeks ago. Newark was ahead by a couple inches, but that sould end.

Think of it this way, PHL had what 7 winter storm warnings to BTV's 2 (now 3). But you are right, it probably won't happen...just an incredible winter down there though relative to normal. Even more incredible is it was pulled off without blocking or a -NAO!

[moneypitmike]

How did the EC ensembles look?

 

Also, how quickly/dramatically  does the temp need to drop in order to generate the possible 'flash freeze'?

 

Thx.

[Cold Miser]

How did the EC ensembles look?

 

Also, how quickly/dramatically  does the temp need to drop in order to generate the possible 'flash freeze'?

 

Thx.

Kind of like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E87raPj9m0A

[dryslot]

How did the EC ensembles look?

 

Also, how quickly/dramatically  does the temp need to drop in order to generate the possible 'flash freeze'?

 

Thx.

 

Pretty dam close to the OP from what i can tell

[CoastalWx]

Well, I'll certainly give you (and ORH) benefit of the doubt, but I could swear I remember that the pileup was caused by temps quicly crashing and causing the roads to freeze up quickly. It doesn't matter at this point obviously. I could be wrong, but I usually remember crap like that pretty well.

 

Temps were already below freezing. It was above freezing earlier at night, so what happened was that initially snow may have melted at first on contact, but then as it became TSSN...the snow piled up on the roads and there goes the commute.

[SnowMan]

Youll be tasting the same rain you were laughing at us for the other day

LOL...again I am fine with rain it was just a question.  It's unfortunate you get so depressed over weather...I can't imagine what you would be like if something that actually mattered in life happened...

[CoastalWx]

Pretty dam close to the OP from what i can tell

 

Yeah pretty much.

[CoastalWx]

MHT actually was a good amount of snow before flipping on the GFS. Then, back to snow.

[powderfreak]

For those of you on the line, we have to imagine the GFS and NAM will tick back south a bit at 18z. The ECM has been steadfast and the American models seemed to over correct. Like instead of going over ORH it gets closer to the Cape.

[jm1220]

I have no idea honestly...I know Philly was ahead as of two weeks ago. Newark was ahead by a couple inches, but that sould end.

Think of it this way, PHL had what 7 winter storm warnings to BTV's 2 (now 3). But you are right, it probably won't happen...just an incredible winter down there though relative to normal. Even more incredible is it was pulled off without blocking or a -NAO!

I never would have imagined we all would be over 50" and in some places over 60" with largely a positive or neutral NAO. We're not as dependent on it as places like DC, but it certainly helps. It really was a great run of luck on waves that amplified and drew in moisture at a good time as they zoomed off the coast, making for significant but not crippling storms here. Looks like our luck finally is running out and things are shifting up towards you as they should this time of year.

[dryslot]

Yeah pretty much.

 

If there was any difference, Not that it probably matters in the grand scheme of things it was subtle

[dendrite]

Kinda surprised to see GYX has me on the 10-14"/14-18" line. I think we'll need to be all snow for that.

[dryslot]

GYX all in

 

[dendrite]

GYX all in

Hope I'm wrong, but I think the gradient is going to set up over my head in NH.

[eyewall]

I can scrap the 4-8" call but I am still concerned about shadowing here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX map seems a tad aggressive

Has me in a 6-8" swath

[moneypitmike]

Kind of like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E87raPj9m0A

 

LOL

 

Pretty dam close to the OP from what i can tell

 

Thanks.

 

Can anyone tell me what the temp drop (amount and time) necessary to achieve the flash-freeze scenarios being described?

 

Meanwhile, BOX's thoughts

[dryslot]

Hope I'm wrong, but I think the gradient is going to set up over my head in NH.

 

And i could be battling the CF here depending on where the push ends up, If it stay SE of me, I can see the high end of that range

[Damage In Tolland]

That's a pretty aggressive map from BOX..2-4 here and 4-6 in ORH..I hope that happens but that's ballsy

[Guvna]

Well, I'll certainly give you (and ORH) benefit of the doubt, but I could swear I remember that the pileup was caused by temps quicly crashing and causing the roads to freeze up quickly. It doesn't matter at this point obviously. I could be wrong, but I usually remember crap like that pretty well.

I remember In Worcester that was the case....quick snow hitting the pavement, melting and flash freezing. There were accidents all over the place on 290 and off ramps. They just completed the elevated section of 290 going through the city and it was an ice rink.

[moneypitmike]

BOX map seems a tad aggressive

Has me in a 6-8" swath

 

Agree--I'm sitting on the 6-8/8-10 line.  But, if it ticks a bit colder, we could eek out some decent amounts.  So, I wouldn't be too critical of the map.  Come 00z though..........

[ineedsnow]

nam is really amped wasnt expecting that

[CoastalWx]

That's a pretty aggressive map from BOX..2-4 here and 4-6 in ORH..I hope that happens but that's ballsy

 

Do you know where you live?

[moneypitmike]

That's a pretty aggressive map from BOX..2-4 here and 4-6 in ORH..I hope that happens but that's ballsy

 

You're actually in 1-2".  If the quick freeze takes place, that may be reasonable--maybe more.

[dendrite]

nam is really amped wasnt expecting that

Yeah this will be ugly.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That's a pretty aggressive map from BOX..2-4 here and 4-6 in ORH..I hope that happens but that's ballsy

Looks like 1-2 in your area? That's not to aggressive, could happen on the back end