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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Very curious as to what the media outlets in New England do with this.  NECN obviously has more territory to cover, but the Boston tv mets have some who might be affected by snow... and the freeze situation is very real and has impacts on a large number of people potentially. NH on air mets also have an interesting situation.

 

 

The flash freeze potential is definitely there...but of course this thing can still change.

 

Its a slippery slope (no pun intended) with the flash freezes because they aren't the easiest forecast, but if it does occur like a lot of guidance shows and we flash over to 24F powder blizzard for a few hours after a heavy rain, then the impacts are MUCH MUCH more severe than if we just went wall to wall with a foot of snow.

 

A 1-2" flash freeze outweighs any storm we've had this year in terms of impact on roadways, etc.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

While recent model runs haven't been good for W MA and the Capital District of NY, I'm not ready to throw in the towel with regards to getting a good dump here in the Berkshires as it's very close. While I think CT, RI, and SE MA don't look good, the area north of the Pike and west of 495 still have a chance at getting into some good front end stuff if this were to tick SE a little bit in the next 24-36 hours. Given the time frame, 50 miles is well within the margin of error.

 

Regardless of the low track, I think there's a good chance at few inches of upslope here in the backside with the ULL and NW winds. Intensifying lows to our NE with strong CAA and ULL instability is a good recipe for some backside snows for the Taconics and western slopes of the Greens and Berkshires.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Is it stacked at all? Hoping for a nice wind event

 

All I can think of by your question are Miser's avatars.  :)

 

This is tantalizing close for up here.  Could manage a few on the back end, but I'm wary (not weary) that this won't continue to tick a little warmer still dashing hopes for even that.

 

At least it looks like it might get a little breezy on Thursday.

 

The feethills look like a fun place to be--congrats Jeff.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

All I can think of by your question are Miser's avatars.  :)

 

This is tantalizing close for up here.  Could manage a few on the back end, but I'm wary (not weary) that this won't continue to tick a little warmer still dashing hopes for even that.

 

At least it looks like it might get a little breezy on Thursday.

 

The feethills look like a fun place to be--congrats Jeff.

 

Thanks Mike, Riding until the end of april is well on the table for the areas that i frequent

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted

You know...it's funny... you could almost verify a bona fide blizzard up in the NE Mass where the temps zooms toward 20 and there's a 2.5 hour period of S/S+ in winds gusting over 45mph, and only wind up with 2-4" of snow!

 

Met offices are going to have their hands very full on this thing in terms of public awareness, and as to what. For their sake it would be a helluva lot easier if it just went another 50 mi N so they could just pan the area with a flood watch and be done with it. 

Very encouraging news!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Here's why those CIPS analogs are garbage..It's got March 1993 as the # 1 analog. This isn't even remotely close to that. I mean they couldn't be more different

 

Those are based on comparison to an individual metric like 500mb 300mb..etc. Those ARE NOT meant to mean that you should expect those solutions verbatim. Those tools are really more for fun. Sometimes they can give you an idea of how previous setups shook out...but those aren't meant to be used verbatim.  We've said many times that you can have a similar pattern but a few small changes here and there have a big effect on the outcome.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted

You are prob thinking of 3/8/05....I doubt this one would be that extreme with 4-8" of snow...but it only takes a bit of snow on a flash freeze to create a lot of problems. We'll see where the sfc/upper features track...if sfc low stays just SE of us, then a flash freeze is more likely.

It was 03/06/2003 - http://www.disasternews.net/news/article.php?articleid=1357

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Ok so not the toaster bath it was made out to be. Those areas in central VT are making out well this winter. And don't think for a second you are done.

This sort of reminds me of 2010-2011 except less snow, but we were fringed by a series of Jan/Feb storms while SNE built a historic snowpack (ORH had more OTG than the summit coop in January), but then we got a huge event in March that ended up being BTV's 3rd largest on record.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

No way BTV loses out to us, has that even happened in the last 50 years, ever? NYC beat ORH in 03-04, but I think that was the only time ever.

 

 

NYC only got like 42" in '03-'04?

 

They wouldn't have beaten ORH that year....I think Upton on LI did though, they had like 60" that winter to ORH's 56"

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