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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Hoping this is a lock in. I have to work until about 9 PM on Wednesday night (in Southbridge, MA and have to travel to Worcester). I figure just some nasty rain, nothing frozen until later and not much of it at that. Am I reading the posts correctly?

 

 

Again ...folks, this is not etched in stone.

 

This run's wearisomely cooler than the 00z, and there's really a very, very small amount of wiggle room for SNE in this thing; impossible to ascertain variance(s) would completely change the landscape of impacts, particularly N of the CT/RI borders with Mass. 

 

If for example, trickle in post fropa cold late tomorrow/night does turn out to have more momentum, that alters things in a situation that can't really tolerate alterations. 

 

Also, believe it or not ... the dynamics feeding into the L/W pulsation are not even injected into the flow yet. They are still entangle up in that Alaska vortex/sector... That doesn't get bumped into the flow until tomorrow, than it's that fast to engineer whatever ultimately takes place. Correctly sampling ..whatever dynamical momentum is forced down stream is going to be paramount for deterministic calls with this thing.  That has not happened yet.

 

Yeah, no ball spiking until the rulers are actually in the snow for this one. Although N VT looking pretty sweet right now regardless of adjustments in track.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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How is it colder if it's 20 miles north of 00z? What in the sam hell?

 

I don't get to see the intermediate time periods ... so it is what it is.  But storm track and column temperatures/thermal interactions and dynamics ..et al, are not hugely co-dependent, dude.  A storm can move N or S of a previous guidance and still be cooler or warmer relative to --

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Its a bit better looking on the back end actually vs 00z...though the front end was warmer by a tick.

You can kind of envision what will happen. The cold front will move thru and the CAA will lag greatly behind it on Wednesday..So we'll wake up on Wed morning and it will still be in the low 40's and we'll have to wait all day for the temps to slowly drop until the low bombs out. Meanwhile Powderfreak  will be ballz deep in new snow by dark..And then we'll be slowly tracking the rain snow line creeping south where it will get to the Berks and then just creep and crawl it's way SE

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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You know...it's funny... you could almost verify a bona fide blizzard up in the NE Mass where the temps zooms toward 20 and there's a 2.5 hour period of S/S+ in winds gusting over 45mph, and only wind up with 2-4" of snow!

 

Met offices are going to have their hands very full on this thing in terms of public awareness, and as to what. For their sake it would be a helluva lot easier if it just went another 50 mi N so they could just pan the area with a flood watch and be done with it. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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You know...it's funny... you could almost verify a bona fide blizzard up in the NE Mass where the temps zooms toward 20 and there's a 2.5 hour period of S/S+ in winds gusting over 45mph, and only wind up with 2-4" of snow!

 

Met offices are going to have their hands very full on this thing in terms of public awareness, and as to what

 

I'd like to see the low slow a bit more for that...or at least have the 500mb s/w dig more.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

People never learn. There are areas favored right now, not locked in. Listen to the mets, comprehend what they are saying. There is a reason why people on here have such a great track record. Things still subject to change. No, I'm not holding out for a massive trend to all snow even though I am reasonably close to the NH border. However, all things considered there are still aspects of this storm that could deliver hellaciously.

 

By the way, Kevin is absolutely all time historically salty and negative right now. Just bonafide gold coming from him right now.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Posted

People never learn. There are areas favored right now, not locked in. Listen to the mets, comprehend what they are saying. There is a reason why people on here have such a great track record. Things still subject to change. No, I'm not holding out for a massive trend to all snow even though I am reasonably close to the NH border. However, all things considered there are still aspects of this storm that could deliver hellaciously.

 

By the way, Kevin is absolutely all time historically salty and negative right now. Just bonafide gold coming from him right now.

 

You should head N to the Academy.

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted

People never learn. There are areas favored right now, not locked in. Listen to the mets, comprehend what they are saying. There is a reason why people on here have such a great track record. Things still subject to change. No, I'm not holding out for a massive trend to all spnow even though I am reasonably close to the NH border. However, all things considered there are still aspects of this storm that could deliver hellaciously.

By the way, Kevin is absolutely all time historically salty and negative right now. Just bonafide gold coming from him right now.

Agree with all but the last sentence... It is not gold, it is unreadable.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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Very curious as to what the media outlets in New England do with this.  NECN obviously has more territory to cover, but the Boston tv mets have some who might be affected by snow... and the freeze situation is very real and has impacts on a large number of people potentially. NH on air mets also have an interesting situation.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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Euro gradient is nuts in CNE/SNE.  50 mile shift would be huge.  Still showing 6-8" for MPM a little less for me perhaps but advisory snows still a strong possibility verbatim.

I notice the 850mb hits a wall for a time right over CNE portions. Waffles back and forth north and south. Going to be a nice r/s battle line according to the euro. then 850 goes from over 0c and drops like a rock into the -20's

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