Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[dryslot]

NAM is a mess here. Big warm tongue from H75-H8. It's more of a WAA thump here.

 

From H85 and H7 that i can see i think i would escape, Barely verbatim, Not that it matters any at all

[N. OF PIKE]

that backside stuff rarely works out. i wouldn't bank on more than an inch or 2 if i were you

That is the biggest reason i just logged on, lol.

Banking on "backside " snows reside between wish casting and delusion.

[Brian5671]

How could it not be? it was dropping 12 plus over all of SNE just about. 

 

The end game is becoming clearer.

 

It's going to start as rain for just about everyone from CON south..It's just how soon can it flip to snow..25-50 miles south and it's very quick..Now it's just a 6 hour period on the backside and it's like 2-4 or 3-6..The way things are trending so far today..you'd have to think the Euro is going to be north

Backside snows rarely work out.   And this may go so far north, CT gets little QPF.   Models keep dropping QPF and shifting further north

[MJO812]

This storm might be done for anyone south of cne.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'd wait for the real guidance to come out before getting overly worried...but this definitely does not have a good look for SNE unless that vort-lobe comes further SE.

Funny how it completely obliterated last storm....now, when we actually need it for just a modest push, its got less punch than Kevin's BMI after running a marathon. I guess that is the way it goes sometimes.

Aside of a brief burst of delusion last night as I hadn't looked at anything ...euro and ggem idea will be more right than anything from ncrap.

[JC-CT]

Rain to PF? Oh the devastation that would cause in NNE.

[ORH_wxman]

Aside of a brief burst of delusion last night as I hadn't looked at anything ...euro and ggem idea will be more right than anything from ncrap.

 

 

Yep, and I actually won't be surprised if the Euro comes in more amped today either.

 

 

I've had a feeling on NNE for this one from the get-go. SNE may still get some snow, but if we do, I think it will only be scraps on the front and back end. The flash freeze could be pretty high impact though even if its only accompanied by an inch or two of snow.

 

 

Powderfreak over to Sunday River and company are looking very favorable for a big snow hit on this one.

[Damage In Tolland]

50 degree rains to flash freeze and snow showers is how it's trending for the SNE wx nerds. No thanks

[CoastalWx]

This is why past does not equal present. The setup was night and day from early last week. I was worried about ptype since Friday. You can't always just say "seasonal trend...blah blah blah.." 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I found this funny in the 10:20 BOX AFD update

 

MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE STILL
FEET- WET OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LESS-WELL SAMPLED...IT IS STILL TOO
SOON TO CONVERGE ON A DEFINITE SOLUTION. WE CONTINUE TO PREFER A
BLEND OF MODEL DATA.

[ineedsnow]

winter storm watch!!   congrats to some

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I can deal w/ a slop to rain here. It will be a little hard not to be bitter if this taints into ski country after all the cold and dry we've had.

Gut feeling says PV saves NNE from taint but we'll see.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What happened to the beast of an artic high? Cant keep it in place huh...?

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS looks like it will be pretty warm

[CoastalWx]

What happened to the beast of an artic high? Cant keep it in place huh...?

 

It's a function of the upper levels. Unfortunately, the PV lobe is not pushing south in time before the low approaches.

[ORH_wxman]

What happened to the beast of an artic high? Cant keep it in place huh...?

 

 

Its bottled to the northwest with the PV lobe not coming far enough southeast....if the PV lobe was a bit further Se, then we'd feels that high's presence....but it doesn't reach us.

 

We'll feel it later in the storm when temps crash extremely cold...but obviously much of the precip will have fallen by then.

[CoastalWx]

That's a congrats BUF right there.  Maybe a nice Downslope Dandy for BTV with all that erly flow.

[forkyfork]

slow and wrapped up

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a mixed mess into NNE. Maybe PF still cashes in. So much for the ACK track..might be over BOS if the GFS is right.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

i will admit, if this turns out to be all rain here, that will be aggravating to myself and im sure many others. we have been unseasonably cold recently, and may come up with nothing to show for it. Cold with no snow this time of year gets old

 

the pv has shunted the last 3 storms south, and now it cant keep it far enough south that rain isnt blasting through SNE

 

I dont like this set up at all. I think this may be a mainly rain event if not all rain from the mass/nh border south, especially south of the pike.

 

i dont put any stock in back-end snows. they seem to never work out. 

[dryslot]

Much slower and wound up, 980mb tracking thru CT, Glad i have a hard hat

[CoastalWx]

Well this storm hasn't looked great here for a little while, so I wouldn't get worked up Taunton blizz.  

[ORH_wxman]

That is quite warm aloft well into CNE.

[dryslot]

Nice stall, lol

[dendrite]

Looks like a mess incoming. Maybe I can end up with a net loss by the time verification comes.

[SnowMan]

That is quite warm aloft well into CNE.

Will it be cold in the lower levels?

[Randy4Confluence]

A slight shade colder than 6z, but not much

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Well this storm hasn't looked great here for a little while, so I wouldn't get worked up Taunton blizz.  

yeah, the writing has pretty much been on the wall here for days now aside from the glimmer of hope yesterday. Its more just general annoyance that this will be the outcome of the pattern we have been in thats been shunting storms south.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's turned into a warm humid screaming soueaster. I don't think anyone saw this coming. Bye bye snowpack

[Damage In Tolland]

A slight shade colder than 6z, but not much

Lol it's much warmer than 6z and 6z was warm