Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let the North Trend commence. 

 

Looks great for home away from home.  Seasonal movement.

[ORH_wxman]

The GEFS are totally unreliable to me right now...they have completely mimicked the OP run's movements in recent events. When the OP goes colder, the GEFS do too...when warmer...the GEFS do to.

 

Euro ensmebles have actually done the same to an extent too.

 

 

Right now, a multi-mmodel ensemble is probably the best way to analyze it. I guess the EC ensmebles went a pinch colder at 00z, so that was good for snow lovers, but overall we've been basically at the mercy of the OP runs in the D 3-5 range.

 

 

They key is definitely still that little PV lobe.

[Damage In Tolland]

The GEFS are totally unreliable to me right now...they have completely mimicked the OP run's movements in recent events. When the OP goes colder, the GEFS do too...when warmer...the GEFS do to.

 

Euro ensmebles have actually done the same to an extent too.

 

 

Right now, a multi-mmodel ensemble is probably the best way to analyze it. I guess the EC ensmebles went a pinch colder at 00z, so that was good for snow lovers, but overall we've been basically at the mercy of the OP runs in the D 3-5 range.

 

 

They key is definitely still that little PV lobe.

I know your're not a fan of verbatim on models 2 days out..but what would the Euro/Euro ens combo drop for SNE for backside snow amounts on Thursday?

[Ginx snewx]

Re Euro snow map, from my uneducated eyes that looks like 4-6 for Kev,8-10 for MPM, Hunchy, reading this morning their posts I thought it was a rainer to SVT

[Ginx snewx]

I know your're not a fan of verbatim on models 2 days out..but what would the Euro/Euro ens combo drop for SNE for backside snow amounts on Thursday?

100% rainer? ??

[CoastalWx]

Those snow maps aren't the best.

[CoastalWx]

Euro had some snow on the backside, but more latitude dependent. Makes sense if the low comes towards ACK or CC. Defintely flips to snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think that map is overdone

[weatherMA]

gyx seems to be going pretty early on the start time. CON snowing by Wed morning it would appear, but the heavy comes late afternoon and at night. does that seem right?

Yeah the timing definitely move up...which is sweet because my Wednesdays are the worst days lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

100% rainer? ??

I think you ,me, Jerry, Scooter on Se all have a 50/50 chance of that ..hopefully things go better at 12z

[TalcottWx]

Euro is 2" merrit-BDL-NW RI-BOS , 4" NW CT- n orh country- 101 se nh, 6" pete-winchendon-portsmouth, then just a general 8-15" VT/NH/ Maine.. Jackpot area is somewhere IZG to GYX and east of there.

[Cold Miser]

How exciting it would be to be majority rain after freezing our balls off for weeks and getting no happy ending.

Yup.  This is exactly what is keeping this winter from being an A/A+ one in my book.

 

100% rainer? ??

I'm still sticking to my very, detailed (un) scientific forecast from last week with rain for my area.  Tiny bit of froz, maybe, but I am still taking the over bet on decent sized rainer for my area.  Congrats to the Northern areas.

[Cold Miser]

Enjoying my coating, in progress at the moment.

[eyewall]

I am going 4-8" for BTV. Not a blockbuster, but a decent event.

[TheSnowman]

How exciting it would be to be majority rain after freezing our balls off for weeks and getting no happy ending.

OMG LMFAO! Is mother nature Hot in your table messaaaage?

So before the off hours were cold and on hours warm. Now it's the opposite all if a sudden. Which is clearly better but Warm Euro was not a good sign.

[NorEastermass128]

Congrats NNE. Ski on!

[tamarack]

How exciting it would be to be majority rain after freezing our balls off for weeks and getting no happy ending.

 

That would be January. 

[dendrite]

I am going 4-8" for BTV. Not a blockbuster, but a decent event.

Aggressive

[cdgraves]

PWM looking good for ~12" right now. Hopefully this isn't an "everywhere but the coast" event. 

[Ginx snewx]

Aggressive

lol balls to the wall for him

[dryslot]

PWM looking good for ~12" right now. Hopefully this isn't an "everywhere but the coast" event. 

 

I don't think you will escape taint free attm

[dryslot]

lol balls to the wall for him

 

Can always go down from there if he has to............

[dendrite]

I don't think you will escape taint free attm

yeah. I'm a little afraid of a mix/rain for awhile up here too. Hopefully for us the euro holds serve and the gfs cools a bit.

[dendrite]

Can always go down from there if he has to............

kidding aside, BTV will probably do 4-8" of fluff alone from the upper level snows on the backside.

[dryslot]

yeah. I'm a little afraid of a mix/rain for awhile up here too. Hopefully for us the euro holds serve and the gfs cools a bit.

We are riding the line, A little more help from the pv south would really help the cause out, A little to close but the Euro solution would work as you mentioned

[PWMan]

yeah. I'm a little afraid of a mix/rain for awhile up here too. Hopefully for us the euro holds serve and the gfs cools a bit.

This has paste/slop-fest written all over it for the ME coastal plain. Going to be some steep gradients, and once it goes to rain it'll be hard to accumulate again with everything wet unless temps really crash. Right now I'm feeling ~6 for MBY.

[dryslot]

kidding aside, BTV will probably do 4-8" of fluff alone from the upper level snows on the backside.

 

Yeah, He is in a good spot for this as well as PF right now, But lucy has pulled the football out from under them so many times they walk on egg shells so i can see the conservative approach, Always can go up

[ORH_wxman]

I know your're not a fan of verbatim on models 2 days out..but what would the Euro/Euro ens combo drop for SNE for backside snow amounts on Thursday?

 

 

Prob a couple inches? Maybe a little more if lucky?

 

We need this to tick about 25-50 miles S with the cold push and it would do wonders.

[dryslot]

Prob a couple inches? Maybe a little more if lucky?

 

We need this to tick about 25-50 miles S with the cold push and it would do wonders.

 

this

[Damage In Tolland]

Prob a couple inches? Maybe a little more if lucky?

 

We need this to tick about 25-50 miles S with the cold push and it would do wonders.

Yeah 25-50 miles would help us immensely. I just don't know what would force it south. It seems holding out hope for a PV lobe is like holding out hope that the Cowboys defense will be good next year.

 

When we didn't want the lobe last Monday it crushed us into pulp..when we do want it this week..it decides to drop the throttle and race NE