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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The GEFS are totally unreliable to me right now...they have completely mimicked the OP run's movements in recent events. When the OP goes colder, the GEFS do too...when warmer...the GEFS do to.

 

Euro ensmebles have actually done the same to an extent too.

 

 

Right now, a multi-mmodel ensemble is probably the best way to analyze it. I guess the EC ensmebles went a pinch colder at 00z, so that was good for snow lovers, but overall we've been basically at the mercy of the OP runs in the D 3-5 range.

 

 

They key is definitely still that little PV lobe.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

The GEFS are totally unreliable to me right now...they have completely mimicked the OP run's movements in recent events. When the OP goes colder, the GEFS do too...when warmer...the GEFS do to.

 

Euro ensmebles have actually done the same to an extent too.

 

 

Right now, a multi-mmodel ensemble is probably the best way to analyze it. I guess the EC ensmebles went a pinch colder at 00z, so that was good for snow lovers, but overall we've been basically at the mercy of the OP runs in the D 3-5 range.

 

 

They key is definitely still that little PV lobe.

I know your're not a fan of verbatim on models 2 days out..but what would the Euro/Euro ens combo drop for SNE for backside snow amounts on Thursday?

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

How exciting it would be to be majority rain after freezing our balls off for weeks and getting no happy ending.

Yup.  This is exactly what is keeping this winter from being an A/A+ one in my book.

 

100% rainer? ??

I'm still sticking to my very, detailed (un) scientific forecast from last week with rain for my area.  Tiny bit of froz, maybe, but I am still taking the over bet on decent sized rainer for my area.  Congrats to the Northern areas.

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

How exciting it would be to be majority rain after freezing our balls off for weeks and getting no happy ending.

OMG LMFAO! Is mother nature Hot in your table messaaaage?

So before the off hours were cold and on hours warm. Now it's the opposite all if a sudden. Which is clearly better but Warm Euro was not a good sign.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

yeah. I'm a little afraid of a mix/rain for awhile up here too. Hopefully for us the euro holds serve and the gfs cools a bit.

We are riding the line, A little more help from the pv south would really help the cause out, A little to close but the Euro solution would work as you mentioned

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
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yeah. I'm a little afraid of a mix/rain for awhile up here too. Hopefully for us the euro holds serve and the gfs cools a bit.

This has paste/slop-fest written all over it for the ME coastal plain. Going to be some steep gradients, and once it goes to rain it'll be hard to accumulate again with everything wet unless temps really crash. Right now I'm feeling ~6 for MBY.

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dryslot

dryslot

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kidding aside, BTV will probably do 4-8" of fluff alone from the upper level snows on the backside.

 

Yeah, He is in a good spot for this as well as PF right now, But lucy has pulled the football out from under them so many times they walk on egg shells so i can see the conservative approach, Always can go up

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I know your're not a fan of verbatim on models 2 days out..but what would the Euro/Euro ens combo drop for SNE for backside snow amounts on Thursday?

 

 

Prob a couple inches? Maybe a little more if lucky?

 

We need this to tick about 25-50 miles S with the cold push and it would do wonders.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Prob a couple inches? Maybe a little more if lucky?

 

We need this to tick about 25-50 miles S with the cold push and it would do wonders.

Yeah 25-50 miles would help us immensely. I just don't know what would force it south. It seems holding out hope for a PV lobe is like holding out hope that the Cowboys defense will be good next year.

 

When we didn't want the lobe last Monday it crushed us into pulp..when we do want it this week..it decides to drop the throttle and race NE

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