Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good lesson as to why past does not equal future.

Are you specifically referring to the disaster last week? lol

 

Yeah, 2 completely different things.          I initially though this thing would slide to the east and maybe scrape. I though the PV would be pushing more W to E and would muscle this over.    I was not thinking supression south

[JC-CT]

The hope in SNE is that the sw comes in stronger and the back end snow is more dynamic.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see the 6z GEFS cooler. That's a big hit from here to dryslot.

They're always cooler. I'd be worried about a mix up into S VT and NH..of course you guys will have plenty of snow..but it's likely not done coming NW

[Damage In Tolland]

The hope in SNE is that the sw comes in stronger and the back end snow is more dynamic.

As of now there's not much backend snow anywhere in SNE  unless you're up in  N and NW Mass

[JC-CT]

As of now there's not much backend snow anywhere in SNE unless you're up in N and NW Mass

Yup, that's why it's the hope.

[Ice Warrior commander]

Mood flakes out there now. 

[dendrite]

They're always cooler. I'd be worried about a mix up into S VT and NH..of course you guys will have plenty of snow..but it's likely not done coming NW

They're not always cooler.

[Damage In Tolland]

They're not always cooler.

I thought Scooter said they were. My bad

[dryslot]

Nice to see the 6z GEFS cooler. That's a big hit from here to dryslot.

Makes the OP run a little more suspect,We will see how today's runs go, I think we still see some ticks along the way and in a positive direction

[mahk_webstah]

gyx seems to be going pretty early on the start time.  CON snowing by Wed morning it would appear, but the heavy comes late afternoon and at night.  does that seem right?

[powderfreak]

FWIW, Looks like GEFS tracks the low from LI to ACK

 

There are a lot more amped members than there were at 00z... no idea what the mean looks like but the individuals seem much further north than the 00z individuals. 

 

[wxsniss]

Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

 

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would
expect confidence to increase during the day.
...
This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases. 

[CoastalWx]

I thought Scooter said they were. My bad

I said most of the time in these setups they are SE of the ops.

[CoastalWx]

Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would

expect confidence to increase during the day.

...

This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases.

Overrated.

[codfishsnowman]

i savored my flurries and snow grains this morning walking the dogs

[codfishsnowman]

Overrated.

agreed, sounds better than it really is like a used car salesman

[HoarfrostHubb]

Overrated.

Help me Obi-Wan-not-sampled, you're our only hope

[dendrite]

I thought Scooter said they were. My bad

Usually they are cooler, but not always.

[dryslot]

Help me Obi-Wan-not-sampled, you're our only hope

 

Other then getting an actual pressure reading, I think with today's technology, They can see where the s/w is located by satellite and water vapor imagery easily enough.

[powderfreak]

Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

 

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would

expect confidence to increase during the day.

...

This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases. 

 

How can they not feel confident in categorical POPs?  I can understand p-type uncertainties, but I would be pretty confident that you could go 100% POPs as something will fall from the sky.

[CoastalWx]

Help me Obi-Wan-not-sampled, you're our only hope

That card is way overplayed IMHO.

[Damage In Tolland]

That stupid data sparse argument is maddening and assinine. i wish they would stop that crap..It's a cop out for them not having to commit to a forecast. That's exactly why they do it

[powderfreak]

Makes the OP run a little more suspect,We will see how today's runs go, I think we still see some ticks along the way and in a positive direction

 

heh, how much more positive can it get for you? 

[dryslot]

How can they not feel confident in categorical POPs?  I can understand p-type uncertainties, but I would be pretty confident that you could go 100% POPs as something will fall from the sky.

 

Yeah, If your tossing out probs and are not real confident then they should go with a lower number

[CoastalWx]

There is some truth to it because nothin beats good hard data, but that has been way overplayed recently.

[dryslot]

heh, how much more positive can it get for you? 

 

lol, Keeping H85 to my SE.......... , That run we were playing with fire

[Jack66]

This is the snowfall forecast from the 0z ecmwf run this morning.

[powderfreak]

lol, Keeping H85 to my SE.......... , That run we were playing with fire

 

That was an over-amped run... but honestly at this point, I'd say ride the Euro until proven otherwise.  Its been pretty rock steady and the others seem to be coming somewhere in the vicinity of its solution its had for several runs.

[TalcottWx]

How exciting it would be to be majority rain after freezing our balls off for weeks and getting no happy ending.

[dryslot]

That was an over-amped run... but honestly at this point, I'd say ride the Euro until proven otherwise.  Its been pretty rock steady and the others seem to be coming somewhere in the vicinity of its solution its had for several runs.

 

Euro is always my model of choice, Even when it had a few hiccups this winter, I did not even totally write off its solutions then because of its record