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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Liked that ECM and GGEM runs last night...over 1" QPF on the EURO over most of NNE down through CNE.

Dryslot, congrats man. That EURO run was incredible. Get the yardstick out. Doesn't matter what model, you get hit pretty darn hard.

Thanks freak, That Euro run looks like your area would do quite well too

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

1"+ liquid for all of VT, NH, and most of ME on the ecens mean...it was a little bit cooler than the 12z run which makes a difference for up here and dryslot.

 

Yeah, that model has been steadfast... the ECM and its ensembles.  I like the H7 low closing off so far north and west... BTV noted it too.  Some banding possible well north, so we'll see.

 

To my eye the 6z GFS looks to be a little more amped than 00z out in the Ohio Valley.  The 850mb freezing line is further north to start by a little bit.  We'll see.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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It is almost an exact carbon copy of 12z aside from the smallest details that don't matter really. This run might be like colder by 5 miles

 

 

Yes too warm for most of the event outside of the flash freeze at the end and a couple inches of snow for SNE, though northenr SNE is pretty darn close to all snow. We're talking needing like 20-25 miles.

 

I'd go 40 for good measure.  :)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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GFS even mixes up here. That may be the warmest run yet.

 

That's a hiccup run I'm sure... that low goes over BOS pretty much which is why it looks so good up here.  I can't see it becoming that amped but there's still 48 hours left so who knows.  I was just stoked it didn't go south to like the Benchmark or something.  Looking at the 00z GEFS, only one member had a solution as far NW as the 6z Op GFS. 

 

All the meso-models are still pretty far south though it looks like the NAM might have bumped up a bit. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Posted

That's a hiccup run I'm sure... that low goes over BOS pretty much which is why it looks so good up here.  I can't see it becoming that amped but there's still 48 hours left so who knows.  I was just stoked it didn't go south to like the Benchmark or something.  Looking at the 00z GEFS, only one member had a solution as far NW as the 6z Op GFS. 

 

All the meso-models are still pretty far south though it looks like the NAM might have bumped up a bit. 

 

I'm thinking back to the snow-destroying rainers earlier in the season.  IIRC, the expectation was that those had hit their northern most tracks and yet they kept moving north leaving us with bare ground as a reminder of just how far they had trended.

 

Not saying that's the case here.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I'm thinking back to the snow-destroying rainers earlier in the season.  IIRC, the expectation was that those had hit their northern most tracks and yet they kept moving north leaving us with bare ground as a reminder of just how far they had trended.

 

Not saying that's the case here.

 

lol yeah, lots of mixed signals this season.

 

There's a lot of that "seasonal pattern" going around where systems seem to find a way to dump on like the northern Mid-Atlantic and SNE, and that isn't about as much trending north or south, just that its seemed to find a way to snow in that area.  The cutters though, I have no idea really how they trended because rain is pretty much rain whether it goes over SYR or BUF or DTW. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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lol yeah, lots of mixed signals this season.

 

There's a lot of that "seasonal pattern" going around where systems seem to find a way to dump on like the northern Mid-Atlantic and SNE, and that isn't about as much trending north or south, just that its seemed to find a way to snow in that area.  The cutters though, I have no idea really how they trended because rain is pretty much rain whether it goes over SYR or BUF or DTW. 

 

True that rain is rain.  But it hurts when 36 hours before the event you thought it was going to be snow.

 

The EC and 06z GFS has apparently made the SNE crowd speechless--this thread has quickly died.  Cognrats.  :)

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

lol yeah, lots of mixed signals this season.

 

There's a lot of that "seasonal pattern" going around where systems seem to find a way to dump on like the northern Mid-Atlantic and SNE, and that isn't about as much trending north or south, just that its seemed to find a way to snow in that area.  The cutters though, I have no idea really how they trended because rain is pretty much rain whether it goes over SYR or BUF or DTW. 

Nothing now to stop this from contiuning NW. Once the s trend stops it doesn't come back. With S  stream system and no blocking this keeps going NW now. Wire to wire rainer in SNE and probably mixes to at least S VT and NH before flipping back to snow

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Nothing now to stop this from contiuning NW. Once the s trend stops it doesn't come back. With S  stream system and no blocking this keeps going NW now. Wire to wire rainer in SNE and probably mixes to at least S VT and NH before flipping back to snow

 

Ehh, only one GEFS member from the whole group at 00z looked like the 6z OP does.  It may not trend 100 miles south, but it could still tickle tickle for 48 hours.  I wouldn't be spiking any footballs over the 6z GFS even though it was a weenie run up here.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

there is no interest for snow lovers s of rt 2 with this one.....hopefully cne and nne dont get messed up but i never trust these moisture laden southern systems with ni blocking and a poorly positioned high. the pv which killed a threat last week says fu sne this week to in reverse lol. ma nature says be happy your 16 day bonanza in feb

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