Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[weathafella]

NAM is a lot colder...but I don't think we can use it for trends, lol. That's how unreliable it is at this time range.

Or any range...lol.

[CoastalWx]

I won't forgive the NAM for the 2/18 bust. 6hr epic forecast bust.

[ORH_wxman]

I won't forgive the NAM for the 2/18 bust. 6hr epic forecast bust.

 

 

The mini-snowbomb clipper/redeveloper? I don't recall what te nam had in that. Probably because I didn't look at it, lol.

[TalcottWx]

I won't forgive the NAM for the 2/18 bust. 6hr epic forecast bust.

Not much reason to go away from the ACK track call at this point. Good middle ground right now. Maybe a little further NW to Chatham though. Idk.

[CoastalWx]

The mini-snowbomb clipper/redeveloper? I don't recall what te nam had in that. Probably because I didn't look at it, lol.

Oh I'm sorry, I meant 2/15. It gave BOS 1" QPF IIRC on the 18z run.

[CoastalWx]

Not much reason to go away from the ACK track call at this point. Good middle ground right now. Maybe a little further NW to Chatham though. Idk.

I'd rather not have it go near both lol. I think an ACK would be fine if we could build the high down more, but I'm not sure that happens.

[CoastalWx]

That might be the last time a WFO knee jerks to the 18z NAM.

[Max]

This NAM is laughable. Starts a lot of SNE as snow and keeps the interior in the upper 20s even during the latter part of the day before sunset. Obviously never happening with this storm. 

[TheSnowman]

Will - http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8550823-wbz-accuweather-midday-forecast-for-march-5/

 

And the best, While the storm was already half done or so haha - http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8578371-wbz-accuweather-forecast-for-march-8/

[Randy4Confluence]

NAM will go through the same evolution as the global models before it gets clue 48 hours prior to the event.

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[Ginx snewx]

Nam stayed south is a good sign

[Max]

Nam stayed south is a good sign

We toss b/c it is the NAM.

[weathafella]

Gfs is south too,

[weathafella]

Almost there. Another 10 miles and BOS is 6-12.

[New Englander]

Guarded optimism for here.......

[Ginx snewx]

We toss b/c it is the NAM.

no we look at features and conclude

[Randy4Confluence]

Gfs is weaker at least at 54hr.

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[weathafella]

Liking the trends. A bit more and tons of us are in the game.

[weathafella]

Gfs is weaker at least at 54hr. Sent from my VS980 4G

Lol...out to 90 with stubborn moderate snow imby.

[Randy4Confluence]

Don't ruin it for me lol.

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[Max]

no we look at features and conclude

It usually creates erroneous features in its solutions which screws up the rest of the look of the vital features we want to look at for trends so I'd still hold off on using it.

[weathafella]

It usually creates erroneous features in its solutions which screws up the rest of the look of the vital features we want to look at for trends so I'd still hold off on using it.

It's a moot point. Nam generally stinks but gfs also came south so the trend is there.

[weathafella]

Uncle similar to gfs.

[dendrite]

Those are some weenie upper level snows before sunrise Thu.

[Max]

It's a moot point. Nam generally stinks but gfs also came south so the trend is there.

I'm not doubting the trend, just on using the NAM to validate any trend.

[TalcottWx]

Great start to the overnight for sure.

[Randy4Confluence]

It's a moot point. Nam generally stinks but gfs also came south so the trend is there.

Man what an awesome run that is on the GFS! I know you already know this lol,but the joy must be shared with someone. Wow!

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[Ginx snewx]

Holy shi t that would be an intense storm

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Uncle similar to gfs.

we have seen this movie many times before this winter. I'm actually surprised I thought this one was going the other way and didn't pay much attention. But time to change course it's falling into line with the seasonal pattern

[New Englander]

Nice...