Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[JC-CT]

Something I have been watching, what a tremendous height crash, day after tomorrow stuff

What exactly is a flash freeze in sensible impact terms?

[dendrite]

Yeah probably...I had no idea where you got pike-south looked bad on that GFS run a couple days ago when BDL was all snow...I clicked on twister and got this...but perhaps because their point soundings are not exact and plymouth didn't have 78h that we are differing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not that this matters anyway.

I just wanted to make sure I wasn't seeing things. Like you said the exact details don't matter at this point.

FWIW, you can get the Plym soundings every 6hr, but you have to edit the URL. They should just put the 6hr increments in the drop down selection instead of the 3d, 3.5d incs. I should have weatherma relay that suggestion to Plym.

[cja1987]

The signal for the 18th is impressive...  Once we lock this system into a more confidence frame-work, I think a thread should get going for that one.   In part ... because when this "threat" was first introduced, I and others noted that it could be split into more than one event type of "era" more so than a one and doner. 

 

To me it seems destined to be that way -

 

Agreed.

 

I'm not saying we are done in SNE for Wed/Thurs by any means though I think, as already noted, we are getting some level of consensus that the best place to be is north. However, this threat has morphed from its quasi Miller A look to more of an Ohio Valley-NYC-CC Canal track. Just a different beast and I always lower expectations when it shakes out that way whether the threat be suppression, P-type, etc. More can go wrong, zone of "winners" is narrowed substantially. Just based on the nature of the track alone ignoring exactly where it goes spatially, I've dropped major emotional investment. I get alot more upset if I miss the snow by 4 miles in a great Dec Noreaster due to CF, these situations "oh well".

 

18th threat looks more like what we have been looking for, lets hope it holds. This one did not but the 18th has a bit more of a favorable look to things at 500 mb on the ensembles. PV is already in place and another impulse comes around it roughly out of western Hudson Bay and anything that gets going is likely going to have to dig for oil and move northeast.

[Ginx snewx]

What exactly is a flash freeze in sensible impact terms?

You have never experienced one, 3-6-05?

[ORH_wxman]

I just wanted to make sure I wasn't seeing things. Like you said the exact details don't matter at this point.

FWIW, you can get the Plym soundings every 6hr, but you have to edit the URL. They should just put the 6hr increments in the drop down selection instead of the 3d, 3.5d incs. I should have weatherma relay that suggestion to Plym.

image.jpg

 

 

Oh I didn't know you could edit the url...thanks for the info.

 

 

Yeah you weren't seeing things based on that sounding. The point sounding from twister looks like its more like 8 miles south of ASH, so obviously thats how close were talking.

 

 

And of course like 8 miles on a 78 hour GFS output is like an order of magnitude less than the error bar for the model accuracy at that range.

[Ginx snewx]

Flash Freeze warning - When conditions are likely to rapidly cause the temperature to drop within two to three hours, from above the freezing mark to below the freezing mark, and the roads are wet roads from prior rain or wet snow during the time of rapid cooling.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey ... does anyone want to through a clown map up based upon the 18z GFS  

[JC-CT]

You have never experienced one, 3-6-05?

I certainly experienced that but I honestly don't remember it. Do the puddles in the street that form during a heavy rain turn to a sheet of ice?

[Ginx snewx]

Hey ... does anyone want to through a clown map up based upon the 18z GFS

[Ginx snewx]

I certainly experienced that but I honestly don't remember it. Do the puddles in the street that form during a heavy rain turn to a sheet of ice?

flash freeze

[JC-CT]

Hey ... does anyone want to through a clown map up based upon the 18z GFS

We must have gotten a lot of qpf as rain still.

[Ginx snewx]

We must have gotten a lot of qpf as rain still.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIJD

[Bostonseminole]

I certainly experienced that but I honestly don't remember it. Do the puddles in the street that form during a heavy rain turn to a sheet of ice?

speaking of 3/6 what happened to the WXmachine and his MRM model?

[JC-CT]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIJD

So...yes?

[Randy4Confluence]

Every run is still out of Hollywood at this point.

Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

Has anyone got any feedback as to how the sref plumes have done since their upgrade? Graphics are different

[ORH_wxman]

Has anyone got any feedback as to how the sref plumes have done since their upgrade? Graphics are different

 

 

I know they were a disaster in last week's storm...but most models were so I'm not sure it is the best reference point. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Every run is still out of Hollywood at this point.

Sent from my VS980 4G

Tomorrow the players start walking on to the field and maybe we can gain a little more confidence wrt how much of SNE is in the snow/frozen bullseye.

[dendrite]

Has anyone got any feedback as to how the sref plumes have done since their upgrade? Graphics are different

The upgrade is 3/26.

[SnowMan]

Man was thinking gfs was rolling out soon but we still got an over an hour still...time change ftl

[CoastalWx]

LOL at the spread at 850mb on the SREFs.

[dryslot]

The upgrade is 3/26.

 

Thought it was late Feb, Would explain why they still suck then

[CoastalWx]

Thought it was late Feb, Would explain why they still suck then

 

My guess is they still will not perform well after the upgrade. Perhaps they will be less wet, but it's still models gone wild I think.

[Randy4Confluence]

Tomorrow the players start walking on to the field and maybe we can gain a little more confidence wrt how much of SNE is in the snow/frozen bullseye.

Sounds like a plan .. man. You've gotta be feeling good about your locale for this one.

Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

Thought it was late Feb, Would explain why they still suck then

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-02sref_winter_aaa.htm

[NorEastermass128]

 

On air mets not feeling this one at all.  

[TheSnowman]

Some things about the NAM seem colder, others warmer.  Seems flatter.....  

[weathafella]

Well NAM is certainly a snow bomb this side of the canal.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is a lot colder...but I don't think we can use it for trends, lol. That's how unreliable it is at this time range.

[weathafella]

Takes it over the bm.