Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[SnowMan]

Perhaps Will thought Snowman was talking about the 12z Euro? The 18z gfs is all snow for him although I wouldn't say 12"+ is a certainty in this set-up.

yes I was talking 18z gfs. 12 inches was probably a little zealous...lol

[Ginx snewx]

yes I was talking 18z gfs. 12 inches was probably a little zealous...lol

at any rate great storm for you guys,dynamite

[JC-CT]

Perhaps Will thought Snowman was talking about the 12z Euro? The 18z gfs is all snow for him although I wouldn't say 12"+ is a certainty in this set-up.

I think Will was annoyed by all of the troll posts over the past 24 hours.

[SnowMan]

I think Will was annoyed by all of the troll posts over the past 24 hours.

who made troll posts?

[ORH_wxman]

I think Will was annoyed by all of the troll posts over the past 24 hours.

 

 

No, mostly correcting over-exaggerating posts....the 18z GFS was very close to mixing there, whether it did or got within 10 miles...its fairly irrelevant anyway at this stage.

 

 

One of the reasons I personally despise the extreme dissection of verbatim model solutions at this stage is because of debates like this...and they are almost completely meaningless in the scheme of the storm.

[DomNH]

This will blue bomb here if we get an ACK track. Even a Canal track like the 18z GFS will be close. Gonna be walking the thin line between cement and 34F rain.

[JC-CT]

who made troll posts?

Come on, you have been heckling Kevin a bit over the last day or so, trying to push buttons.

[masonwoods]

who made troll posts?

What do you think the odds are of reaching 12" in the Mason Greenvile area? Better than 50/50?

[JC-CT]

No, mostly correcting over-exaggerating posts....the 18z GFS was very close to mixing there, whether it did or got within 10 miles...its fairly irrelevant anyway at this stage.

One of the reasons I personally despise the extreme dissection of verbatim model solutions at this stage is because of debates like this...and they are almost completely meaningless in the scheme of the storm.

I think we are on the same page. "Looks good for 12+" and "no rain here" were just meant to rub Kev the wrong way.

[SnowMan]

I think we are on the same page. "Looks good for 12+" and "no rain here" were just meant to rub Kev the wrong way.

what are you talking about? Based on 18z gfs I made my call. Earlier Kevin asked how much rain I would get. I answered with we won't get rain here.

Anyway - I still the this ticks a little SE and get others in on the fun...

[moneypitmike]

Me, MPM, Hubba Hubba not looking bad right now

 

That looks pretty decent.  But a little waffling is all it will take to drive taint up this way.  Many days to go.

[CoastalWx]

Not to worry, soon the RPM will be within range. That should answer some questions we have.  

[JC-CT]

what are you talking about? Based on 18z gfs I made my call. Earlier Kevin asked how much rain I would get. I answered with we won't get rain here.

Anyway - I still the this ticks a little SE and get others in on the fun...

It's all good, I understand the overcompensation that is sometimes required in the face of extreme weenieism.

Just think the back and forth was getting to Will, and I respect his position as well.

You certainly are sitting better than Tolland county CT right now. 12+ is a stretch for any storm in this +NAO regime, but you aren't in a bad spot.

[Damage In Tolland]

18z GEFS came south and a bit colder again so the trend from 12z continued

[JC-CT]

18z GEFS came south and a bit colder again so the trend from 12z continued

It is better than continuing north.

[CoastalWx]

18z GEFS came south and a bit colder again so the trend from 12z continued

 

This is the type of pattern where the GEFS are usually SE anyways. IOW, bias. However, perhaps the trend is real...perhaps...but I'd take the GEFS with a grain of salt.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2-8? Seriously? I hope the producers are just on his back, otherwise I'm a little disappointed. That's like the difference between a flyswatter and a rifle.

I'd guess 4-8, but I'm sure that is nowhere close to the actual estimates once its all said and done.

Lol that was a good one. But yeah on s serious not, huge difference in 2 vs 8

[JC-CT]

This is the type of pattern where the GEFS are usually SE anyways. IOW, bias. However, perhaps the trend is real...perhaps...but I'd take the GEFS with a grain of salt.

Still though, better than going north.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Def not confident where I am. Burbank could be right.

But as has been stated, 25 mile wobbles will make the weeble

[Tornadomachine]

Def not confident where I am. Burbank could be right.

But as has been stated, 25 mile wobbles will make the weeble

so... you get 2 and I get 8?  Or vice versa?  You know, he probably means 8, because 8 is bigger than 2, and everyone knows bigger is better, and more is better than less, and bigger numbers are more exciting, and yadah yadah.

 

Think the uncertainty message is getting through?  I'd take his forecast with a grain of salt, its just waaay to early to tell. I totally agree though, this could go either way, and it could do so rather spectacularly.

[FRWEATHA]

Def not confident where I am. Burbank could be right.

But as has been stated, 25 mile wobbles will make the weeble

[FRWEATHA]

What did Bubank say for here?

[Ginx snewx]

Def not confident where I am. Burbank could be right.

But as has been stated, 25 mile wobbles will make the weeble

lol,weebles wobble but they wont fall down,youll do well round boy

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If this were to end up 75-100 miles southeast or where the euro has it, look out. A snow bomb for everyone is not off the table, and neither is a Rainer for a lot of folks

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What did Bubank say for here?

Right now, it isnt looking good for us. However, the north trend may be over, and we may be ticking back south. It isn't going to take a miracle for us to get some good snows though

[Tornadomachine]

What did Bubank say for here?

C-2, or less.  Probably C-2 though, as the expected cold blast burns through.  You're not in the greatest place for this storm, considering the track might be right on top of you...

[ORH_wxman]

Its still a bit early...so we'll have to wait another 24h or so, but the flash freeze should really be watched in this one for the ~50 mile zone south of where the mix line makes its furthest advance...just about every model shows it right now.

 

It could be a potentially brutal flash freeze with the cold that gets tapped on the back side of this storm.

[Ginx snewx]

Its still a bit early...so we'll have to wait another 24h or so, but the flash freeze should really be watched in this one for the ~50 mile zone south of where the mix line makes its furthest advance...just about every model shows it right now.

It could be a potentially brutal flash freeze with the cold that gets tapped on the back side of this storm.

Something I have been watching, what a tremendous height crash, day after tomorrow stuff

[Tornadomachine]

Something I have been watching, what a tremendous height crash, day after tomorrow stuff

I thought that was global warming.  

 

I kind of wonder what the commute monday morning will look like.  Hours of rain could end in a quick 2-4 of fluff, sitting ever so nicely on a thin coating of black ice.  Massive school closures and Atlanta style traffic, anyone?

[JC-CT]

Relax guys - geez... so i didn't know it existed. big deal -

I am relaxed...just playful banter between model runs. You are the one who publicly called out this period, and even stated that the period AFTER this upcoming one could bear watching. I applaud you for that.