Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[powderfreak]

No it doesnt. You flip to rain around 00z Thu....then flip back to snow.

 

He flips to rain in that?  In Southern NH?  I thought maybe the coastal NH (but maybe that's where he is, lol) might flip, but figured with the heavy precip there'd be some dynamic cooling.

[TalcottWx]

I'm feeling several inches north of the pike could be confined near and north of nh border as we tick closer. At and south of pike should get in the very least a couple inches, mayne more if we can tick south. Feel like most of sne sees flakes though.

[ORH_wxman]

He flips to rain in that?  In Southern NH?  I thought maybe the coastal NH (but maybe that's where he is, lol) might flip, but figured with the heavy precip there'd be some dynamic cooling.

 

 

Its for a time at 78...might be a rain/sleety/ZR mix or something but its not all snow and its def not "at least 12 inches"

 

 

Not that these finite 25 mile details are remotely relevant at the moment.

[dendrite]

Its for a time at 78...might be a rain/sleety/ZR mix or something but its not all snow and its def not "at least 12 inches"

 

 

Not that these finite 25 mile details are remotely relevant at the moment.

You and I must be looking at different models lately.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Me, MPM, Hubba Hubba not looking bad right now

[CoastalWx]

I think it depends on the model too. Something like the euro ensemble was ugly into srn NH. 18Z gfs was pretty chilly in srn NH.

[Ginx snewx]

Blue bomb,marginal 850 blown out by intense rates and crashing heights as depicted

[weathafella]

The trend is ever so slightly better for southern areas today. Let's see what 0Z brings.

[Ginx snewx]

You and I must be looking at different models lately.

I know, weird looks isothermal bomb to me for Snowman

[dendrite]

I think it depends on the model too. Something like the euro ensemble was ugly into srn NH. 18Z gfs was pretty chilly in srn NH.

Yeah...I double and triple checked the 18z GFS 78hr sounding for ASH. Maybe the first few hours at onset are a little mucky with 33-34F RASN down there, but it looked fine from 00z onward to me. Obviously there's model runs that are more precarious that even mix up here, but I didn't think the GFS looked bad taken literally for the ASH area. I wouldn't say snowman looks good for 12"+ though.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tickle me south Elmo. Tickle tickle. Nice trends at 12 and 18z

[OSUmetstud]

Perhaps Will thought Snowman was talking about the 12z Euro?  The 18z gfs is all snow for him although I wouldn't say 12"+ is a certainty in this set-up.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, whatever it is...I'm sure there are some more changes en route.

[ORH_wxman]

You and I must be looking at different models lately.

 

 

 

Yeah probably...I had no idea where you got pike-south looked bad on that GFS run a couple days ago when BDL was all snow...I clicked on twister and got this...but perhaps because their point soundings are not exact and plymouth didn't have 78h that we are differing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not that this matters anyway.

[Damage In Tolland]

Mets gone wild

[NorEastermass128]

 

A 50 mile tick SE on the 18z GFS and Ray, Jerry, and me are in the thick of the flagship event of '13-'14.  

[CoastalWx]

That brings up a good question. Does Twisterdata default to the nearest reporting station, or is it in like 27km grid squares?

[NorEastermass128]

 

Burbank going C-2" for S Route 2.

2-8" N MA, S NH

8-14" for the skiiers.

 

I will temper my enthusiasm for now.

[wx2fish]

That brings up a good question. Does Twisterdata default to the nearest reporting station, or is it in like 27km grid squares?

I always thought it was a nearest grid point, but I'm not 100% sure.

[weatherMA]

Burbank going C-2" for S Route 2.

2-8" N MA, S NH

8-14" for the skiiers.

I will temper my enthusiasm for now.

Did he put out a map?

[TalcottWx]

That brings up a good question. Does Twisterdata default to the nearest reporting station, or is it in like 27km grid squares?

I think its grid squares. It always brings my clicks to random places.

[Tornadomachine]

 

 

Burbank going C-2" for inside 128.  

2-8" N MA, S NH

8-14" for the skiiers.

 

I will temper my enthusiasm for now.

 

2-8?  Seriously?  I hope the producers are just on his back, otherwise I'm a little disappointed.  That's like the difference between a flyswatter and a rifle.  

 

I'd guess 4-8, but I'm sure that is nowhere close to the actual estimates once its all said and done.

[TalcottWx]

Burbank going C-2" for S Route 2.

2-8" N MA, S NH

8-14" for the skiiers.

I will temper my enthusiasm for now.

I'd only be tempering if that was Harvey L

[powderfreak]

 

 

A 50 mile tick SE on the 18z GFS and Ray, Jerry, and me are in the thick of the flagship event of '13-'14.  

 

 

Regardless, I'm not sure if this will be the flagship event of the winter... some of those storms that had blizzard watches/warnings up were probably more widespread and impressive.

 

To me it looks like the heaviest snow in this would be in a pretty narrow 50-mile wide band where the best lift overlaps the marginally cold air.  The heaviest QPF areas look to have mixing or rain south, with heavy wet snow on the northern edge of the heaviest precip areas (say 8:1 ratios?).  Where its colder to the north (like here) where the snow growth looks better, the QPF is about half. 

 

I'm not sure what others are thinking, but it could be a widespread 6-12" event, but the "jackpot" region may be pretty narrow in like that 8-14" range wherever that sets up.  It doesn't scream widespread foot or more type situation that the ECM had advertised for a couple days with massive QPF.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol. Any met that is putting out a map now should have their degree revoked. That is ridiculous. I don't care who it is

[Ginx snewx]

Use weather.cod.edu for clickable soundings much better

[JC-CT]

A 50 mile tick SE on the 18z GFS and Ray, Jerry, and me are in the thick of the flagship event of '13-'14.

Flagship event is the event after the one next week lol.

[wxsniss]

That brings up a good question. Does Twisterdata default to the nearest reporting station, or is it in like 27km grid squares?

 

Have often wondered that, clicking on Boston defaults to somewhere near Lawrence...

 

Here's from their website, I think it's grid points rather than stations:

Our grid contains well over 10,000 points--approximately one per county in the Plains states. Clicking on a map will select the gridpoint nearest to your mouse click and display that gridpoint's forecast sounding and hodograph, as well as a Google Maps box displaying the location of the gridpoint in question. 

[Ginx snewx]

Have often wondered that, clicking on Boston defaults to somewhere near Lawrence...

Here's from their website, I think it's grid points rather than stations:

Our grid contains well over 10,000 points--approximately one per county in the Plains states. Clicking on a map will select the gridpoint nearest to your mouse click and display that gridpoint's forecast sounding and hodograph, as well as a Google Maps box displaying the location of the gridpoint in question.

seriously weather.cod.edu, click and then put your coordinates ,change hours etc

[CoastalWx]

Have often wondered that, clicking on Boston defaults to somewhere near Lawrence...

 

Here's from their website, I think it's grid points rather than stations:

Our grid contains well over 10,000 points--approximately one per county in the Plains states. Clicking on a map will select the gridpoint nearest to your mouse click and display that gridpoint's forecast sounding and hodograph, as well as a Google Maps box displaying the location of the gridpoint in question. 

 

I think the gridpoint has to do with the resolution that the individual site has too WRT the model of choice...I've always hated those. You are better off to use the 4 letter identifier on a site if possible.