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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

That snow does not look wet at all except maybe the very onset. ITs like a powder blizzard with temps in the teens once it gets going, lol.

 

That's sort of what I was wondering, but maybe they are talking about just central VT at their southern zones...but even there it doesn't look all the wet based on SFC temps. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

I was surprised to read this from BOX in their 4pm AFD:

CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE

MORE OF A DRIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POSSIBILITIES STILL RANGE

FROM A TREND EVEN FARTHER N IF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS MORE...OR

FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE IF IT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I was surprised to read this from BOX in their 4pm AFD:

CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE

MORE OF A DRIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POSSIBILITIES STILL RANGE

FROM A TREND EVEN FARTHER N IF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS MORE...OR

FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE IF IT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE.

 

It could go north or south. Shocking...lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I was surprised to read this from BOX in their 4pm AFD:

CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE

MORE OF A DRIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POSSIBILITIES STILL RANGE

FROM A TREND EVEN FARTHER N IF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS MORE...OR

FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE IF IT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE.

 

 

The fast moving flow aorund the base of the vortex is going to be problematic for guidance pretty late into this system most likely...so anyone within 50 miles of "in the game" once we get to tomorrow will still have to watch trends.

 

 

How far south that high pressure presses is the biggest single key in this event right now. I think there is enough evidence now that we are not going to get a completely unphased solution...its going to be at least a partial phase which should bring a sginificant system to the northeast...now its up to the northern vort lobe. There's going to be nuances too in the phase in the central US too, but those will be second fiddle to the vort lobe up north...obviously we'll have to watch both, but extra attention up near James Bay.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I guess I don't know what they mean by offshore. I would think a whiff OTS is all but off the table.

 

To me it's all about the ridge in NW Canada and how far south that PV lobe digs ahead of the s/w moving through the Midwest. Like Will said, it's probably going to at least partially phase. But if you look at NW Canada, some models really wanted to dig that PV lobe south as strong jet energy dives south on the backside of that feature. When you have strong winds pushing on tthe backside of a trough...stronger than winds on the east side, it causes it to dig and slow down. That's what the euro op did. Another option is for the s/w's to phase more and pump up heights on the East Coast, That will deflect the PV lobe coming south from James Bay, like a hair follicle on Kevin's head.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

That model has no credibility at this range.

 

lol, it has no credibility at 12 hours out....I just found it interesting that it even has that option still on the table.  The UKMET was really far south too, but much stronger.

 

Would one assume the global models will have a better handle on this than the meso-models, even as we get closer in?  It seems like there are too many moving parts for the meso-models to really grasp this.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

lol, it has no credibility at 12 hours out....I just found it interesting that it even has that option still on the table.  The UKMET was really far south too, but much stronger.

 

Would one assume the global models will have a better handle on this than the meso-models, even as we get closer in?  It seems like there are too many moving parts for the meso-models to really grasp this.

 

 

Meso models should be useful for the low level thermal profiles once we get really close...but only in like the final 24 hours or something.

 

I'd certianly trust global guidance outside of 24h. I don't think any global models have anything that suppressed. The Ukie and JMA were pretty suppressed, but not that much.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

To me it's all about the ridge in NW Canada and how far south that PV lobe digs ahead of the s/w moving through the Midwest. Like Will said, it's probably going to at least partially phase. But if you look at NW Canada, some models really wanted to dig that PV lobe south as strong jet energy dives south on the backside of that feature. When you have strong winds pushing on tthe backside of a trough...stronger than winds on the east side, it causes it to dig and slow down. That's what the euro op did. Another option is for the s/w's to phase more and pump up heights on the East Coast, That will deflect the PV lobe coming south from James Bay, like a hair follicle on Kevin's head.

Good analysis from you and Will today. We will wait and see.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Meso models should be useful for the low level thermal profiles once we get really close...but only in like the final 24 hours or something.

 

I'd certianly trust global guidance outside of 24h. I don't think any global models have anything that suppressed. The Ukie and JMA were pretty suppressed, but not that much.

 

Has the JMA been improving at all?  Or is it still mostly a side-show?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

No issues here lol, Looks to be a wintery week

 

Yeah that's a great solution for you.  I'd take it, but to be honest like 18 hours of 0.1"-0.25" melted every 6-hours is like watching paint dry, lol.  But that's a storm for this season, haha, true warning events are hard to come by...it does still get up near 1/2" of QPF over 24 hours, so can't complain.  Still time left, but I think we are locking in on the bigger totals snow threat zone...like you to Dendrite/S.NH to S.VT.

 

The positives are that the H7 low still looks really far NW on the GFS, and is generally a decent location for us, so hopefully there'd be some higher ratio banding in that.  That stuff just rots over a large portion of New England.

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